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Mystery Swedish "not a foreign submarine" Revealed as a "SEAL Carrier"

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The Swedish military/Defence Ministry have been unusually quiet in explaining a June 2018 sighting of a mystery watercraft seen from the northern shore of Lidingo island (see red marker on map below) near Stockholm, the Swedish capital.  Also towards the top-right corner of the map note how near Vaxholm is to Lindingo. 

The SEAL Carrierhas surfaced and submerged modes. See the 2018 version of the SEAL Carrier performing at Youtube B below and possibly the actual Lidingo Seal Carrier at Youtube C below.

Why the Swedish military/Defence Ministry are quiet is because the SEAL Carrier is a covert weapon quietly used by Swedish Special Forces "SEALs" (could be) and is quietly marketed to foreign Special Forces overseas.


So the Swedish Defence Ministry and Armed Forces are correct in saying the SEAL Carrier is "not a foreign submarine". 


See further details connecting Sweden to the SEAL Carrier and the significance of Vaxholm (in this Southern Hemisphere Anonymous comment.)



The term “SEAL” was originally restricted to Special Forces Sea, Air, and Land (hence “SEAL” Teams) from the US Navy but now "SEAL" has wider application to Special Forces, from other countries, who operate in water.


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Youtube A (below) is what the student (standing on the Lindingo shore) filmed - happening in the inlet north of him

- note 11 seconds in until 20 seconds in - are the bow waves of a fast approaching water craft on the surface. Don't worry about the commentary, which is unhelpfully in Swedish.



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Youtube B (below): Downloaded November 8, 2018 from the public-open Internet. The latest SEAL Carrier.



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To clinch it see a side view of probably the June 2018 Lidingo SEAL Carrier in:

Youtube C (below) by K. Ekroth uploaded by Lars Wilderäng on November 7, 2018

 

Note that the SEAL Carrier crew don't seem worried by a civilian boat filming them and there are no guardboats warding off these civilians.

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Submarine Matters in August 2014 reported at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/08/navy-seal-and-submarine-capabilities.html on several types of  SEAL delivery vehicles. At scroll a third way down to see a 2014 photo (reproduced below) and Swedish connection reference to the SEAL Carrier 
2014 Photo of SEAL Carrier
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On August 1, 2014 US website Wired.com reported https://www.wired.com/2014/08/navy-seal-submarine/
"JF Defence says its "deliveries [are] often named as non-disclosed," but that their six-man SEAL Carrier has been delivered to Sweden's Navy."

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As well as Youtube B see still photos 2018 photos of the current Swedish developed SEAL Carrier. eg. the one below showing the latest SEAL Carrier in surface, semi-submerged, and submerged modes.




Could LIBs be combined with Stirling AIP? - Table.

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Anonymous has kindly provided the comments (original words) and further translated by Pete below on November 8, 2018.

A full Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) system was adopted on the first Japanese Soryu Mark 2 submarine ("SS" sequence number 27SS– see red in Table below), which was launched on October 4, 2018. [Pete comment: A LIB system not only means 100s of tonnes of new type batteries but new or altered electrical wiring, connections, adjusted propulsion motor, adjusted consumer hotel load equipment (eg. computers), and many other weight conscious rearranegements = new buoyancy settings.]

LIBs replace the Stirling air independent propulsion (AIP) and lead-acid batteries (LABs) in previous Soryus (see Table below). The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Navy adopted LIBs, because they perceived major problems in Japan's 13 years of using Stirling AIP.

More specifically in the older Soryu Mark 1 (AIP + LABs) submarines Stirling AIP’s drawbacks probably include/included:

i)  major weight, balance-buoyancy changes as 10s of tonnes of liquid oxygen (LOx) is consumed in the heavy LOx tanks. See “Combat Technology of Submarine” 2015 by H. Yamaichi. Ex-captain of JS Setoshio (SS-575) which was a Yushio class submarine). He was is also ex-Professor in the National Defense Academy of Japan. He said “Weight of goods (water, food, etc) is strictly controlled in submarine.”

ii)  low AIP energy output, which effects acceleration and speed, 

iii)  Stirling AIP can only operate at a diving depth down to 200m. See more below on this last diving depth point.

iv) [Pete comment: Time needed to warm up the AIP? AIP cannot be instantly accelerated or switched on to confront a crisis, like a Chinese torpedo.] 

The relative high costs of LIBs and Stirling AIP is an uncertain issue. It is not known why Japan did not decide to retain Stirling AIP and then add LIBs in a new submarine. 

[Pete comment - Note that Japan’s needs submarine stored energy (be it diesel, battery electricity or AIP chemicals) that is appropriate to Japan’s mission requirements. Requirements which may vary from short defensive missions to longer (4,000+ km) range missions in the western Pacific. AIP very well meets requirements in small enclosed seas but can have major overall drawbacks in open seas/oceans.]

Further to point iii) above - by recharging in gentle seas the LIBs Soryu Mark 2s can be operate for a far longer period than LABs-AIP Soryu Mark 1s (whose fully submerged operational period is controlled by the limited amount of LOx carried in Mark 1s).

According to Japan’s MoD, the replacement of Stirling AIP-LABs is because LIBs allow a longer time submerged. “In simple thinking, this statement seems to be false because energy from Stirling AIP is nearly 100 MWh larger than that from LIBs” (50 MWh). But, if a Stirling AIP-LABs Soryu needs to operate below a depth of 200m, it can no longer utilise AIP [due to AIP's no greater than 20 bars exhaust pressure limitations] and instead must rely on its LABs.

AIP’s diving depth limited down to 200m is a problem because Japanese submarines are operated in the Sea of Japan and West Pacific Ocean which are much deeper than 200m. In those standard situation a LIBs Soryu will yield a longer submerge period than AIP-LABs Soryu. [Pete Comment: Note, in using AIP Soryu Commanders, do not want to forego their sub's unusually deep max diving depth - maybe around 700m.] 

So Japan’s MoD has selected LIBs Soryus for full range-operation deeper diving efficiency.

AIP More Useful for Some Other Navies

In the case of the latest ChineseYuan class 039A/041 submarines which use [covertly acquired, indigenous and/or bought] Stirling AIP and LABs, the situation seems to be a bit different form Japanese submarines. These Chinese submarines are intended to be mainly operated in the East China Sea [and use this inter-active sea depth map] which is mostly very shallow (almost three-fourths of the sea is less than 200m). There, China’s Stirling AIP-LABs system is still effective.

For the same reason, Sweden’sSAAB Gotlands and future A26s are/will be effective in the mostly shallow Baltic Sea. [Pete Comment: Also missions in the Baltic can be very short so Swedish sub’s can completely use their AIP with no LABs needed. Singapore which is using Stirling and soon German AIP on the new Type 218s may also enjoy only-need-AIP operations.]

Sweden and other countries may be interested in AIP + LIBs. Stirling AIP seems to compatible with LIBs. LIBs are used for operation under depths of 200m, and Stirling AIP improves endurance in shallow water. 

Also the recovered heat from the combustion gases of Stirling engines can be used for heating of LIBs to avoid thermal runaway at low temperatures. Cold sea (eg. North Sea and Baltic) users benefit most from the recovery-heat differential nature of AIP. Potential users include  the Netherlands' Walrus Replacement, German, Norwegian Type 212A/CD and, of course SwedishA26s.  

Though France’s Naval Group and German TKMS have already reported interest and some development of LIBs for submarine (probably most in collaboration with SAFT) Sweden’s SAAB, has not said much about adopting LIBs.


TABLE for SORYU & Oyashio Program as at November 9, 2018 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi
ssioned
Built
By
8105 Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios 
10 subs
2 Toshiba motors
SMC-7?
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Soryu Mk 1
12V25/25SB
SMC-8
8116
Sōryū
SS-501
¥60B FY2004
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
No 21SS
No 21SS built
22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
26SS
end of SMC-8s
SS-510
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
Mar 2019?
KHI
27SS First
Soryu Mark 2
12V25/25SB 
diesel
first SMC-8B
motor
8126
Oryū
SS-511
LIBs only
2015
4 Oct
2018
Mar
2020?
MHI
28SS  Second
Soryu Mark 2
12V25/25SB
SMC-8B
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
LIBs only
2016?
Oct 2019?
Mar 2021?
KHI
29SS First Soryu Mark 3
SMC-9?
8128
?
¥76B FY2017
LIBs only?
?
?
2023?
MHI?
30SS Second Soryu Mk 3
12V25/31S
8029?
?
¥71.5B FY2018
LIBs only?
?
?
2024?
KHI?
Table from information exclusively provided to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
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Thankyou Anonymous (with further translation and some [bracketed] comments by Pete).

Submarine LIBs for India, Australia, France, Germany, Norway, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden?

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Anonymous has kindly provided comments on November 11, 2018 on foreign interest in Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for submarine. Supporting information is difficult to find, but information from Anonymous is usually accurate. 

Pete has put the comments into more standard English and added some comments in [...] brackets.

The Indian Navy is seriously considering the introduction of LIBs into its submarines. India is very interested in Lithium Titanate LTO, Super Charge Ion Battery
SCiB™by Toshiba) [1]. India’s very good bilateral relationship with Japan could contribute to technology transfer of LTO/SCiB from Japan to India. If India requests this technology transfer, Japan rejecting such a request may be difficult because Japan already proposed LTO/SCiB for Australia [probably in Australia’s 2016 Future Submarine competition].

In Euronaval 2018 [Paris, October 2018] Germany's TKMS exhibited a LIB Prototype for SSKs such as in its Type 212CD [2] [3]. Details are unknown, but, [Anonymous] can estimate some features of this Prototype. As TKMS co-developed LIBs with SAFT, the Prototype is Lithium Iron PhosphateLFP (voltage 3.2-3.3V, capacity 90-120Wh/kg, cycle life 1000-2000, safest next to LTO). As the LFP Prototype’s intended application is in the TKMS future Type 212CD, the dimensions of the LFP Prototype is the same as the Exide-Technology’s LAB currently used in Type 212As. Presumably, the total energy density of the LFP Prototype in the Type 212CD is 2-3 times higher than the Exide LAB in the Type 212A. This would result in a better indiscretion ratio and higher speed performance in the future 212CD.

Whether LIBs have been proposed for Type 212CD which may respond to Poland’s ORKA future submarine program is unclear. [Pete Comment - The 
Type 212CD has already been ordered for the German and Norwegian Navies.]

Anonymous believes TKMS will propose a FC-AIP, with LIBs submarine for the Netherland’s Walrus replacement program. This LIBs incentive is because defeat of TKMS in the Walrus replacement competition may be economically very damaging for TKMS. Naval Group will also propose a LIB submarine option for the Walrus replacement.

Unless Sweden’s SAAB proposes LIBs for the Netherland’s Walrus replacement concept, SAAB may find winning the Walrus competition quite difficult. The developmental status of LIBs for SAAB submarines has not yet been reported. SAAB may obtain (SCiB™) LIBs by technology transfer from Japan’s Toshiba. Sweden and Japan are close with SAAB relations with Japan's Ministry of Defense (MoD) being quite good. [Pete Comment – This may go back to the early 2000s when SAAB negotiated with MoD on the transfer of Stirling AIP technology for Japan's Soryus.] The Administration of Japanese Prime Minister Abe has been moving Japan (
which includes 
Toshiba) into the international arms business.

[1] The Indian Navy pointed out the following advantages of SCiB™ LTO LIBs:
i) safety of minimal heat generated from internal shorting,
ii) long 12,000 cycle life,
iii) rapid recharging in 6 minutes,
iv) “instant and high output of large current”,
v) “wide effective SOC (state of charge) range which provides large capacity”, and
vi) low temperature performance which permits operation even at minus 30C.
The Indian Navy said “Japan and India share a lot of common interests as well as the challenge posed by its neighbouring nations. The current government dispensation [Administrations?] at both these countries share friendly relationship and personal bonhomie [warmth] at the leadership levels. “
[see SCiB™ on Toshiba website]


[3] [See previous Submarine Matters October 25, 2018 article on French Naval Group and German TKMS looking at SAFT Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries.]

Anonymous

Just 8 Australian Future Submarines, not 12.

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The 9th Biennial Submarine Institute of Australia (SIA) Conference,held in Canberra, 
November 6-8, 2018 has prompted prior and during interviews that give fundamentally different views of Australia’s Future Submarine Program.

On October 28, 2018, prior to the Conference  Andrew Tillett in an excellent article for the Australian Financial Review interviewed the Head of the Future Submarine Program, Rear Admiral Greg Sammut.

Andrew Tillett reported, in part:

“While the [Australian] Rudd government's 2009 defence white paper identified the need for 12 new submarines – doubling the size of the existing Collins class fleet – Admiral Sammut revealed Naval Group and the German and Japanese contenders had only been required to bid on the basis of providingeight conventionally powered submarines.

"So it is in that context that we are putting in place the [delayed Strategic Partnering Agreement] SPA with that understanding the offer was built around eight boats and necessarily the terms and conditions we have should contemplate that, noting that the size of the fleet beyond eight boats will be a matter for government," he said.

"That doesn't mean we must buy eight boats hell or high water, the contract enables us to contemplate what would occur if it was less than that and what would have to apply in those circumstances.”

SEE THE COMPLETE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW ARTICLE


PETE COMMENT

There seems a conflict or at least ambiguity on whether Australia wants only 8 Future Submarines  and is Naval Group insisting on 12?

Just eight new submarines would have many strategic, operational and financial implications.

Following the rule of thirdsonly 2 or 3 submarines may be short term available for operations or on patrol instead of 4 available if Australia had 12 subs. Australia has a very long coastline, hence vast distances for only 2 or 3 slow SSKs.

If Australia is effectively paying half the development cost for the Shortfin/Future Submarine/Collins Replacement as well as paying the unit prices for 8 subs the purchase price has increased by at least a third.

Note that on January 12, 2018 I made a comment in a Forum that stated:

"The 12 Future Subs number has always been a ["furphy" ie. misleading annoucement]. The industry and Navy are hoping for a 8 subs compromise."

So the widely advertised upfront figure of US$50 Billion, now covers only 8 Shortfins. This makes them as expensive as the world's most expensive (4 times larger, nuclear powered) US future Columbia class submarines.

Is it too late to buy off-the-shelf stretched Naval Group Scorpenes? Probably acceptable to Naval Group and a purchase that would not bankrupt Australia?

Tomorrow how further delays in Naval Group's future Barracuda SSN is flowing on, delaying  Australia's over-expensive, over-ambitious Shortfin.

Russian Navy recruits children to crew Typhoon SSBN

Australia trying new ways to recruit Submariners

France's Barracuda Delay - Awaiting Improved K15 Reactor

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France's future SSN, the Barracuda (first laid down 2007) has been delayed for years due to French delays in developing a new reactor known as the "Improved K15". Of course large existing K15s power the French carrier Charles de Gaulle and France's Triomphant class SSBNs. Put succinctly as France's existing K15 reactor is 10m tall it is too large to fit in the Barracuda's 8.8m diameter hull.

The smaller developing "Improved K15" can be described as a new reactor that will differ not only in size (to fit in the smaller Barracuda hull), but requires other characteristics, including longer periods between refueling, improved natural circulation performance and quietness of operation, improved safety and lower life-cycle costs.

MANY SILENT ON WHY BARRACUDA ARE DELAYED

So this developing-a-smaller-reactor problem has caused an overall delay in the Barracuda Program. The first Barracuda, the Suffren, was laid down in late 2007 and still hasn't been launched in late 2018.

Delays in the Barracuda SSN Program will (or have) caused delays in Australia's Future Submarine Program. This is important because France's DCNS (now Naval Group) itself identified the Barracuda SSN as the reference design (pumpjet, hydroplanes and all) for Australia's Future Submarine. A crucial area is the hydrodynamic waterflow over the not yet launched submarine's hull and the associated noise the flow makes. With no water flow results from a full scale Barracuda SSN Australia cannot be sure that Australia's Future Submarine will move efficiently and quietly in the water.

The Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter's (APDR's) Editor, Kym Bergmann in SEA 1000 - The future submarine project in trouble – and the ‘Barracuda’ reference design, of October 29, 2018 raises the issue that as Australia’s Future Submarine was advertised by DCNS, now Naval Group, as the “Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A.” then:

“...it would be helpful for Australian readers to have an update about what has been happening on the [Barracuda SSN] parent program. [When French representatives were asked about progress] The result was silence so complete as to be a metaphor for the supposed stealth characteristics of the submarine itself.”

Later in the article Kym commented:

“Speaking of which, when another small group of Australian journalists were on a French Government media tour a year ago, one of them asked about delays to the Barracuda program and received the answer from Naval Group that – improbably – it was all the fault of the reactor supplier, the majority Government-owned Orano (previously Areva).  French military reactors are unusual because they use commercial grade uranium, unlike enriched uranium favoured by all other navies. Having said that, Orano has a huge amount of experience and since the K15 50 MW reactor for the Barracuda is a derivative of the ones powering the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle – themselves a version of the nuclear reactors developed for the Triomphant class SSBNs – so it seems unlikely that this is the real cause of the delay.

Nuclear reactor on a French submarine. Note how the reactor, which is on the right, takes up the whole height/diameter of the submarine - so miniaturising the reactor is essential. (See diagram on page 200 of Peter Lobner's Marine Nuclear Power 1939 – 2018_Part 4_Europe & Canada (PDF 20 MB).)
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BUT NEED FOR SMALL, IMPROVED K15, IS THE MAIN CAUSE FOR DELAY

Fortunately GhalibKabir has pointed me to a July 2018 body of work by submarine reactor expert Peter Lobner which reveals the K15 reactor issue is still valid. Basically the problem with the existing K15s in the French carrier Charles de Gaulle and in French Triomphant class SSBNs are that they are too large to fit in the smaller Barracuda SSN hulls. Put succinctly France's existing K15 reactor, at 10m tall, its too large to fit in the Barracudas' 8.8m diameter hulls.

Peter Lobner's Marine Nuclear Power: 1939 - 2018, at  https://lynceans.org/all-posts/marine-nuclear-power-1939-2018/, runs to 1,000s of pages. But the relevent section on France's latest naval reactors is in Marine Nuclear Power 1939 – 2018_Part 4_Europe & Canada  (PDF 20 MB). Don't be downhearted when you see that Part 4 alone is 364 pages. The relevent pages I focus on concentrate on the Improved K15 on page 179 and then 189 to 208

As well as smaller size there are other improvements to the K15 which make it (or more correctly will make it) a new reactor. It is known for public relations, political and defence program cost saving reasons as the "Improved K15". Lobner explains that the prototype of the Improved K15 has not even gone critical as at mid-2018 in the French naval reactor prototype test center at CadaracheAs there is no operating Improved K15 actually in a Barracuda (these subs are still in a shed) we need to rely on land based prototype reactor reports .

Lobner Page 207 explains the existing K15 vessel is about 10m tall. So, yes, it does fit into the Triomphant class SSBN's 12.5m diameter hull and of course two K15s fit into the much larger French carrier Charles de Gaulle.

Page 208 states the need to"Reduce the physical size of the [Improved K15 reactor] so it can fit on a Barracuda-class SSNs which has an outer hull diameter of 8.8 m...

DETAILED INFORMATION ON NEED TO CREATE THE IMPROVED K15

The detail, in context, in Marine Nuclear Power 1939 – 2018_Part 4_Europe & Canada  (PDF 20 MBis important.

Page 179 with table "Naval reactor [land] prototypes" when put fully into English the:
-  "RNG" the "K15" drives the Triomphant class SSBN and carrier Charles de Gaulle, and
-  "RES" land prototype for the "improved K15""Originally intended to replace [the K15] in about 2009. Not yet operational in 2018." then

Page 189: "The RES test reactor is an upgraded version of the K15 [reactor] that currently is operating on four Le Triomphant-class SSBNs and the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The upgraded [ie Improved] K15 will be the [reactor] for the new Barracuda-class SSNs."

Page 190: "RES [land reactor] prototype...Key milestones...As of mid-2018: No report yet of initial criticality."

Page 197: "French naval nuclear reactors...Improved K15 integral PWR for the Barracuda-class SSNs, expected to use LEU fuel."

Page 207: "K15 integral PWR...The complete K15 vessel is about 10 m (32.8 ft.) tall and 4 m (13.1 ft.) in diameter. Le Triomphant-class SSBN hull outer diameter is 12.5 m (41 ft.)."

Page 208: "Improved K15 integral PWR...The design is based on the K15 integral PWR [reactor]. This reactor was expected to be tested in the RES prototype facility at Cadarache. However, significant delays have been encountered in the completion of RES, and, as of mid-2018, initial criticality of the reactor prototype has not yet occurred."

Page 208 continues
Objectives for the improved K15 include:
Reduce the physical size of the [improved K15 reactor] so it can fit on a Barracuda-class
   SSNs, which has an outer hull diameter of 8.8 m (28.9 ft). The complete K15 vessel is
   about 10m (32.8 ft.) tall.
-  Improve the [reactor's] natural circulation performance and quietness of operation.
-  Operate with LEU fuel and deliver thermal power comparable to the K15.
-  Achieve 10 years of operational activity between refueling.
-  Reduced the time needed for refueling (target 3 months vs. 5 months currently).
-  Improve the human-machine interfaces with the instrumentation, control and protection systems.
-  Reduce life-cycle costs (construction + operation).
-  Improve safety.
-  Improve availability.

The first Barracuda-class SSN is expected be launched in the 2018 –2019 timeframe."


COMMENT

Note that even if the Improved K15 prototype at Cadarache goes critical in late 2018 that does not make an Improved K15 instantly ready to be placed in a Barracuda hull and then go critical. It may take years longer to propel this first Barracuda with subsequent design, building and testing delays for Australia's Future Submarine Program. 

Pete

INS Arihant's Deterrent Patrol - former Chief Indian Navy Comments

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Arun Prakash, a former Chief of the Indian Navy has written an excellent article in the Indian Express, November 7, 2018, concerning the significance of Indian Prime Minister Modi's celebrated “first Arihant deterrent patrol” . 


"The significance of Arihant

[This “third leg of the nuclear triad”, has major problems] for three reasons.

First, there is the issue of missile ranges. From a submarine patrol area in mid-Bay of Bengal, Islamabad is 2,500 km, while Beijing and Shanghai are over 4,000 km. Even from the northern-most edge of the Bay of Bengal, Kunming is 1,600 km and Chengdu 2,000 km. Therefore, to target cities and nuclear forces deep inside China or Pakistan, from a “safe haven”, India needs a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) of 6,000-8,000-km range. The missile, reportedly, carried by the Arihant is the K-15, whose range falls below 1,000 km. SLBMs of longer range are, possibly the way, but they will equip Arihant’s successors.

Second, India has, so far, followed an unorthodox system, in which the National Command Authority (NCA) managesthe nuclear deterrent through a “troika”consisting of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), the Department of Atomic Energy and DRDO. While scientists are the custodians of nuclear warheads and help mate them with the SFC’s missiles and IAF fighter-bombers, the MoD and [Defence Minister (in Hindi “Raksha Mantri”] remain out of the loop.
Which brings us to the third area of concern — an effective command and control structure to cater for this new capability.

The Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) is, notionally, a key functionary in the nuclear command chain,...Under existing rules, the appointment of chairman is tenable by the senior-most service chief who may (depending on his retirement date) serve for durations, varying from 30 days to 18 months....

The nuclear-reactors of our SSBNs will need re-fuelling (with fresh Uranium rods) every few years. The process being a rather lengthy one, India would require an inventory of at least 3-4 SSBNs to maintain one on deterrent patrol off each seaboard. A small force of nuclear attack submarines (SSN) would be required for protection of SSBNs and other roles. Thus, in a 50-60 year perspective, India should be looking at a nuclear submarine force of 8-12 SSBNs and SSNs.

While Indian scientists, engineers and designers have learnt a lot about the complex technologies involved in nuclear submarine construction to ensure that Arihant’s successors are substantially, made in India, there are key areas of R&D which call for urgent focus and where we may need assistance. These include propellant technology for SLBMs of inter-continental range; the design of a SSBN which will accommodate a battery of 16-24 such SLBMs; and the indigenous development of a powerful nuclear-reactor to drive a 10,000-12,000 ton SSBN...”

Admiral Arun Prakash when he was Chief of the Indian Navy.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe Visits Darwin - Bombed in 1942-1943

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Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and Australian caretaker PM Scott Morrison at bombing of Darwin remembrance ceremony on November 16, 2018 (Photo courtesy Australia’s ABC News).
---

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Darwin, in Australia’s Northern Territory, on November 16, 2018, to honour those killed during the Japanese bombing raids on Darwin in World War II. Prime Minister Abe and his Australian counterpart, (current until May 2019) Prime Minister Morrison, laid wreaths for those killed.

The largest Japanese air raids on Darwin were on February 19, 1942. The 2 raids that day, consisted of 242 Japanese aircraft launched from land and from 4 aircraft carriers. The February 19 raids killed 243 civilians and military as well as destroying several navy and civilian ships, allied aircraft and much of Darwin. Darwin is a city now, but was a town of less than 10,000 in 1942.

Carrier Force

The aircraft carrier force, that bombed Darwin, consisted of AkagiKagaHiryū, and Sōryū and a powerful escort, including the battleships/cruisers HieiKirishima, Tone and Chikuma. All four carriers had participated in the attack on Pearl Harbor at the start of the Pacific War. All 4 aircraft carriers were destroyed 4 months later at the Battle of Midway on June 4 and 5, 1942.

Japanese aircraft later bombed Darwin, Broome and Townsville  about 100 times total, up until November 1943. 

On November 16, 2018 Abe and Morrison also discussed closer military ties and strategic partnerships.

Pete

Argentine Submarine ARA San Juan reportedly found

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Above indicates where ARA San Juan was apparently found (Map courtesy UK The Sun newspaper, November 17, 2018)
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In the last 3 hours is has been reported in the international media that Argentine submarine ARA San Juan, lost for a year, has been found, in deep water.

Associated Press via The Washington Post and other newspapers reports November 17 2018:

“BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentina’s navy announced early Saturday [November 17, 2018] that searchers found the missing submarine ARA San Juan deep in the Atlantic a year after it disappeared with 44 crewmen aboard.

The vessel was detected 800 meters (2,625 feet) deep in waters off the Valdes Peninsula in Argentine Patagonia [see map above], the statement said.

The navy said a “positive identification” had been made by a remote-operated submersible from the American ship Ocean Infinity, which was hired for the latest search for the missing vessel..."
Pete

Prime Minister Abe Also Remembers WWII Submarine Crew

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Paper cranes and photos of Japanese servicemen including submarine crew who died near Darwin during World War II. (Courtesy Kristy O’Brien of ABC News)
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On November 16/17, 2018 Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, visited a memorial in Darwin, Australia, remembering 80 crew of a sunken Japanese submarine. Australia's ABC News, reports November 17, 2018:

"The descendants of a "forgotten crew" of Japanese soldiers killed at sea hope their story will be etched into history, following an acknowledgement by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Mr Abe used the final day of his Darwin visit to lay a wreath at a memorial for the Japanese submarine I-124, which was sunk off the coast of Darwin during World War II.

The I-124 was one of four mine-laying submarines sent to north Australian waters on secret missions to intercept allied vessels.

But in what would be the submarine's final mission, the crew were trying to torpedo an oiler when they were hit by another vessel that had come in to defend the craft...."

Photos of What May Be Parts of ARA San Juan

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The following vague, difficult to identify, photos are what the Argentine Navy positively says are parts of Armada [Navy or Fleet] de la República Argentina (ARA) San Juan. There is, unfortunately, no indication of how large the objects are in these photos.

San Juan exploded/imploded on November 15, 2017 probably due to the ignition of hydrogen gas produced by sea water coming into contact with San Juan's 100 tonnes of lead-acid batteries. The ignition, gas explosion, then burst San Juan's pressure hull into thousands of pieces. Seawater rushed in (implosion) at the same instant as explosion.

The photos were taken deeper than 800m by an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) sent by the ship Seabed Constructor owned by US company Ocean Infinity. Notice that the first photo gives a Depth ie. "DPT" of  "-945.83m".

The photos are in the Buenos Aires Times, November 17, 2018
 http://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/first-photos-from-the-deep-the-wreckage-of-the-ara-san-juan.phtml:

A pick?
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Electrical connections?
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A piece of hull or hatch? No scale indicator!
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Pete

Australia buying Armed Reapers

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To show the US is not the only Reaper owner, here is the front of a Reaper owned by Britain's Royal Air Force. (Photo courtesy UK Defence Journal.)
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In a Joint Media Release of November 16, 2018, Australia’s Minister for Defence, Christopher Pyne and Minister for Defence Industry, Steven Ciobo:

“...announced the selection of the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper variant as the system which best meets the capability requirements for Australia’s first armed remotely piloted aircraft system.

Minister Pyne said the medium altitude long endurance aircraft can be integrated within the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and would be fully interoperable with our allies...”
“...“The aircraft will be operated under the same laws of armed conflict, international human rights law and rules of engagement as manned aircraft”, Minister Pyne said.
“...The [Australian] Government will now request pricing and availability data from the United States on Reaper variants to support future decision-making on the acquisition.
Pete Comment
Australians have been remote piloting Reapers since 2015.
Reaper using allies, of course, include the US.  Here are 9 other users to interoperate with.
Pete

Why was ARA San Juan Found Exactly One Year After It Was Lost?

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Lost 15 November 2017
Found 16 November 2018.

Why ARA San Juan was found exactly one year after it was lost may be coincidence, but more likely Argentine Government generated public relations. 

Revealing evidence after a year provides convincing symbolism. 

Also San Juan's location may have been pretty well known in naval intelligence circles months ago. 

However revealing sensitive naval sources and methods would look evasive, unhelpful and would raise too many questions. Methods could include:

-  undersea hydrophones, more accurate than those publicizedlocating San Juan when it exploded,



But for persuasive publication a civilian vessel (eventually Seabed Constructor) was needed to “find” San Juan and collect the evidence – so far the photos


“On 16 November 2018 ARA San Juan was found at a depth of 907 meters, at 45°56′59″S 59°46′22″W,[19] nearly 270 nautical miles (500 km; 310 mi) from Comodoro Rivadavia, by [Seabed Constructor owned by]  Ocean Infinity, a private maritime company hired by the Argentine government.

The area was previously assigned 90 percent of probability of locating the wreck, but previous searches failed to find it due to insufficient technology and presence of numerous [undersea]  canyons.[39] 

A "hydro-acoustic anomaly" consistent with an implosion had been detected 30 nautical miles (56 km; 35 mi) north of the sub's last known position at 10:31 (13:31 UT) on 15 November 2017.

Photographs were released showing the shattered remains of the submarine broken up on the seabed.

Ocean Infinity will receive a reward of US$7.5 million for finding the missing vessel.[3][4] 

Argentine Navy spokesman captain Jorge Balbi presented close-up photos of the wreck in a press briefing. The pictures show the imploded pressure hull, with her bow section, sail and propellers scattered in an area of 8,000 square metres (86,000 sq ft).


It is also possible that naval intelligence information of an accuracy that couldn't be made public was fed to ex-naval poeple on Seabed Constructor and/or Ocean Infinity to make the find.

Pete

3 Photos of ARA San Juan showing where parts used to be.

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Bow section of ARA San Juan, noting the 6 torpedo tubes. The section is 24m long and 7m wide with explosion and water pressure deforming it. (Photo from Ocean Infinity via Argentine Navy).
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Part of the now exploded propeller of ARA San Juan (Photo from Ocean Infinity via Argentine Navy).
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Part of ARA San Juan's fin/sail (once called "conning tower) lying on its side with usually horizontal plane now upright of ARA San Juan (Photo from Ocean Infinity via Argentine Navy).
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Recovering the submarine ARA San Juan?

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Photo (from several 100m above) showing how many fragments ARA San Juan 800m has already exploded into and how likely it will crumble further. (Photo courtesy Ocean Infinity's search vessel Seabed Constructor).  
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This is a tragedy for the relatives of ARA San Juan's crew.

-  San Juan is more than 935m down and now may weigh 2,300+ tonnes. (see right sidebar here)

-  Extremely strong, heavy, steel was crushed and exploded into fragements, or dust, by hydrogen
   explosion and by inrushing water pressure. "Pieces that were 11m, 13m and 30m
   long [and much smaller] were spotted.."

-  Recovery technology may just just break the submarine into smaller falling pieces rather than
   recover it. That is what happened in the US$Billion+ Glomar Explorer salvage expedition when
   raising a Russian submarine was attempted.

-  Even the US eventually found the Glomar Explorer expedition technically too difficult and too
   expensive.

-  Cutting of the extremely strong and heavy portions of the hull may not be possible. Its not like
   cutting the thin, light, aluminium/aluminum or thin composites of crashed airliners/planes.

-  DNA testing may prove which crew fragments have been recovered. This may be a blessing for
   some relatives, but may also raise new problems for many. Fragments of every member of
   the crew are unlikely to be recovered, meaning some families will feel forever excluded and
   wronged.

See the most full discussion (so far) of recovering San Juan in the Maritime Herald
November 19, 2018.

Ocean Infinity, That Found ARA San Juan, Working with US Navy

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On November 19, 2018 I commented that it is possible that US Navy information of an accuracy that couldn't be made public was provided to the crew on Seabed Constructor and/or Ocean Infinityto find ARA San Juan.

Contact between the US Navy and Ocean Infinity is quite public. 




"TECHNOLOGY
OCEAN INFINITY SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH US NAVAL METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND
23/07/2018

Ocean Infinity has signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the US Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC), based at the Space Center in Stennis, MS.  During the next five years the collaboration will focus on combining and expanding technologies relating to a broad range of deep-water platforms and sensors focused on undersea data gathering and analysis.

Ocean Infinity – the worlds’ most technologically advanced subsea operator

Since its launch in July 2017 Ocean Infinity has developed the next generation of undersea data gathering techniques.  Over the course of the last 12 months the systems and processes used by Ocean Infinity have changed materially from the initial operational concepts and ideas.  Today, no one else in the world leverages underwater technology in the same way.  Ocean Infinity’s innovative, dynamic and cost-effective approach to undersea data is of relevance to everyone who has a need or desire to better understand the ocean and seabed environment whether they be from the military, government or commercial sectors.

CEO Oliver Plunkett of Ocean Infinity commented, “We are very focused on being at the forefront of technology and this agreement to work and share knowledge with the US Navy’s experts in underwater data is an important part of maintaining our position as a world leader.  The team at Ocean Infinity have high expectations about what can be achieved and consider it a great privilege to have been given the opportunity. ”

Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Rear Adm. John Okon, [photo above] commented “This agreement is a natural fit between two entities striving to be at the cutting edge. Our organizations are developing integrated operational procedures which fully utilize the capabilities of autonomous platforms such as operating multiple surface and subsurface vehicles at one time to rapidly collect and disseminate critical bathymetric observations to the fleet.”"


[Pete Comment

The ARA San Juan search and discovery shows that navies can perform a humanitarian service in many ways.

Here is the current US Navy biography for Rear Admiral John A. Akon.]

US Navy Submarine & ASW Landlocked Idaho, Stealth, Acoustic Research Detachment

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The US Navy maintains its world's most expensive, most powerful, submarine and anti-submarine forces by maintaining large networks of bases and test facilities. Most are, of course, by the sea, but some are landlocked like the huge (by most country's standards) Lake Pend Oreille. Bayview, Idaho, Acoustic Research Detachment (ARD). 

Part of the reason for the sighting of ARD is for security. It is far from the submarine sensors and human contact of opposing forces.


Above is a seperate Youtube on what ARD does.

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Below is the official version (from the Internet November 22, 2018) of what ARD does. at https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Home/Warfare-Centers/NSWC-Carderock/Who-We-Are/Bayview-Idaho/

The 1/3 scale LSV-2 Cutthroat Virginia submarines are part of the most publically known role. 


"The [US Navy's Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division (NSWCCD)] Acoustic Research Detachment (ARD) is located on Lake Pend Oreille, which is Idaho’s largest, deepest (1,150 feet), and quietest body of water providing an ideal environment for acoustic testing without the attendant problems and costs of open ocean operations. 

[The Carderock Division consists of approximately 2,000 scientists, engineers and support personnel.]

The ARD operates and supports unique Large Scale Submarine Models, Test Ranges, and acoustic test facilities utilized in conducting Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) of submarine acoustic stealth technology.  These state-of-the-art facilities support a wide variety of research and technology development programs ranging from submarine propulsor development to the calibration of full-scale acoustic transducers. Detachment personnel supporting the experiments form a highly capable and versatile workforce providing ARDcustomers a timely and quality outcome. They work closely with project scientists, engineers and technicians throughout the Carderock Division and other Navy and private organizations, to plan and conduct operations and experiments on the lake.

The results obtained during past experiments have been extremely valuable to the Navy, especially in the area of submarine propulsor design, sonar dome development, submarine construction cost avoidance, and the development of several critical submarine design features. Future plans include critical support of current and future Navy submarine design in the area of structural acoustics, hydroacoustics, propulsor development, target strength reduction, and related experiments using the unique capabilities of the ARD.  



[This is a 0.294-scale LSV-2 Cutthroat model of a Virginia (SSN-774) that is an unmanned, autonomous test vehicle for evaluating stealth technology. Weight: 205 tonnes. Length: 111 feet (34m) Beam: 10 feet (3m) Propulsion: Electric drive 3,000 shp (2.2MW?)]
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The Large Scale Vehicle-2 (LSV-2), a large model of the VIRGINIA Class submarine, is being used extensively in the area of propulsor research. Large scale buoyant submarine models support testing in the area of submarine structural acoustic and hydroacoustic technology.  Target strength testing is conducted using the Intermediate Scale Measurement System (ISMS), which provides a unique acoustic test capability unsurpassed by any other available facility.

The site's technical programs typically support analytical efforts of the NSWCCD and contribute directly to the development of advanced submarine designs. These programs support the Fleet, Navy systems commands, and other defense agencies. The ARD also support private industry and research efforts of academia and our allies. 

Acoustic Research Detachment
33964 N. Main Avenue
Bayview, ID 83803-9750"


Tomorrow I'll theorise on the less known more recent roles of the Acoustic Research Detachment.

Pete

Naval Group CEO in Canberra, Australia, for “Crisis Talks”

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Lisa Martin has written an excellent article for the The Guardian,November 22, 2018, reporting:

"French submarine boss summoned to Canberra for crisis talks: ‘Legitimate policy differences’ and ‘personality clashes’ said to be stalling negotiations with Naval Group, tasked with building Australia’s $50bn new fleet..."

“...Naval Group chief executive Hervé Guillou travelled from Paris to [Canberra, Australia] for two days of discussions which kicked off on [November 22. 2018].

The federal government is yet to finalise a strategic partnering agreement with Naval Group, which is designing Australia’s fleet of 12 new submarines. There are hopes to have the agreement sorted by Christmas...

“...If no headway is made soon, the talks could be escalated to ministerial level or up to prime minister Scott Morrison and French president Emmanuel Macron.

“It’s understood the sticking points on negotiations include warranty issues,the level of Australian content, as well as a potential sale or merger between Naval Group and Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri.

“...Meanwhile, the federal government’s shipbuilder ASC, which is in charge of keeping six Collins subs operating until the new fleet is ready, warns Naval Group is poaching key staff...”

The US Orca Extra Large UUV "XLUUV" Competition - Acoustic Testing

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The competition to develop the US Navy’s Extra Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle – XLUUV Orcahas at least two initial phases: including the first phase, the design phase. In 2017, Lockheed Martin was awarded $43.2 million and Boeing $42.3 million and delivery of a technical data package.

Lockheed, on October 30, 2017, described the second phase as “a competitive production phase for up to nine vehicles” Lockheed further advised the XLUUV Orca is designed

 “to meet increasing demands for undersea operational awareness and payload delivery [eg. special hydrophones]. Key attributes include extended vehicle range, autonomy, and persistence [endurance]. Orca XLUUV will transit to an area of operation; loiter with the ability to periodically establish communications, deploy payloads, and transit home.”

Likely shape of Boeing entrant. To develop the Echo Voyager (above) or similar Orca XLUUV entrant Boeing is working with Huntington Ingalls Industries [HII]. The Echo Voyager is 51 feet (15.55m) long. Boeing claims a 6,500 nautical mile range (on one fuel module). See SubMatt's 2016 article on the Echo Voyager's many intended capabilities.
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Rumour is Lockheed Martin is developing a greatly enlarged "Marlin" entrant. With no Lockheed "Marlin" XLUUV being made public(?) it could be a secret project or perhaps simply hasn't been developed to a sufficient stage for public viewing (?). There are several old and existing versions of medium sized Marlin UUVs or AUVs. Above is a Marlin Mk3 - perhaps 4.9m long, 1,590kg, range 100+km and 24-60 hours endurance. Far less than the much larger Boeing Echo Voyager.  (Photo and some details here in 2013 and can be found searching AUVAC)
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The Lockheed and Boeing XLUUVs will likely be tested at the US Navy's Lake Pend Oreille Bayview, Idaho, Acoustic Research Detachment (ARD). Testing might be part of the winning selection process. It is highly likely production models would be tested for very quiet, stealthy operation and for the efficiency of the XLUUV's sensors, including its sonars. 

Pete
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