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Japan's Soryu Class Submarine

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 A Soryu Class submarine - in this shot visiting the US Guam naval base.
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A diagram of some Soryu Class features.
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The Sōryū-class   are diesel-electric (SSK) submarines that entered service with the Japanese Navy "Maritime Self-Defense Force" in 2009. Five have been built (since 2005) with all five operational in Japan's Navy. Four more await completion. The design is an evolution of Japan's Oyashio class submarine. Eleven Oyashios have been built since 1994 and all eleven are still operational.

The Sōryūs have a very large displacement for a diesel-electric sub (2,900 tonnes surfaced and 4,200 tonnes submerged). This compares to the Collins (3,050 tonnes surfaced and 3,350 tonnes submerged) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine.

Significantly the Soryu carries a higher weapons payload than the Collins which is an important endurance-operational advantage. The Soryu carries 30 "reloads" (torpedos/Harpoon missiles) compared to 22 for the Collins.

The Soryus are fitted with air-independent propulsion (AIP) based on Kockums Stirling engines license-built by Kawasaki Heavy Industries, with AIP range (submerged of course) of 11,297 km at 12 km/h. Diesel-electric range appears to be classified but may be around 15,000 km. The Soryu is mainly heavier than the (2,750 tonnes surfaced and 4,000 tonnes submerged) Oyashios due to the addition of the AIP.

According to http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/japan/2900ton.htm: The Soryu features higher automation (particularly in combat systems) and computer-aided X control planes. The X rudder configuration was first developed by Kockums for the Gotland. The X rudder provides the submarine with greater manoeuvrability and also enables operation close to the seabed. The Soryu's hull is clad in anechoic coating (to reduce sonar and other forms of detection) and the interior features sound isolation of loud components. The hull is HY-80 alloy (the same as the USN's Los Angeles class SSN) steel. 

Japanese subs have a short service life averaging around 20 years compared to 30 years for most SSKs.

Pete's Comment

If Soryus wear out after 20 years that might be a major deficiency in the SEA 1000 selection process.

Japan's lack of experience in exporting submarines or other major weapons systems has many political, legal and technical support implications which Australia would need to resolve and feel confident about. Mission restrictions may well be a problem from choosing a Japanese sub design given Japan's complex peace or defence only orientation. Japan appear to change governments frequently with swings between nationalist-conservative  and pacifist-centrist governments. But then again the political, strategic, and repair-maintenance advantages of choosing a design from an Asia-Pacific ally like Japan (or for that matter the US) must be factored in. Such advantages would not be present if Australia purchased UK or European designs from Germany (HDW), Spain (Navantia),  Sweden (Kockums) or France (DCNS).

One confidence booster is that the main builders and presumably sellers of the Soryu are highly export and customer support orientated Mitsubishi and Kawasaki. Such confidence would assume that the corporate culture in Mitsubishi's and Kawasaki's defence product divisions are similar or the same as their civilian product divisions. 

As the Soryu combines many of the best European technological features and in a design near to SEA 1000's Asia-Pacific range-endurance requirements the Soryu Class looks a promising option.

Pete

Singapore buying two HDW 218SG submarines - Sweden's loss

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Might the Singaporean customised future HDW 218SG by similar in appearance and displacement to Israel's current customised HDW 212/214 (known as the AIP Dolphin 2) above?
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Where will the Type 218SG fit on this HDW submarine tree?
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After two decades of buying renovated submarines from Kockums Singapore will  buy two new-build submarines designated HDW 218SG. Significantly the 218SGs are from Thyssenkrupp Marine System (TKMS) German submarine division HDW rather than from Kockumss which TKMS also owns. The 218SGs will be built at HDW's shipyard in the northern German port of Kiel.

Singapore's Defence Ministry (Mindef) signed the purchase deal with TKMS on November 29, 2013 to buy two the 218SGs.  The contract was likely to be worth more than 1 billion euros ($1.36 billion).

In hindsight this website's November 13, 2013 article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/germans-sinking-kockums-swedish-sub.html was an indicator that HDW winning the Singapore order was suspected by the Swedish and German media. Singapore's 218SG decision is clearly a blow to Kockums and to Sweden's Navy (which would rely on foreign sales of Kockums subs to lower unit costs of Kockums subs). Unless the Swedish Government or a Swedish firm buys back Kockums Sweden might be forced to buy its future submarines from HDW or at least TKMS owned Kockums.

For Singapore there is some continuity buying customised submarines - from customised Kockums Archer and Challenger Class to customised HDW 218SG class.

I suspect HDW 218SG will be a highly modified version of HDW 212/214, noting that HDW has already produced a highly modified 212/214 in Israel's AIP Dolphin 2 Class. Given the expected 218SG delivery date of 2020 it is unlikely that the 218SG would be a radically new very large submarine of the HDW 216 Class which would probably take longer than the seven years to develop (2013-2020). Singapore's priority for shallow (green or brown) water capability might also suggested 218SGs might be of 214 or Dolphin size rather than 216.

Though I think it unlikely a 218SG would be as large as the 216 design such a large 218 would be advantageous for Australia's SEA 1000 project. The more experience of a conventional sub of the 216 size the better in terms of reducing technical and financial risk for Australia. It would be ideal if a 216 could be built in Australia, noting HDWs have been built in South Korea (including the HDW 209 as KSS-I and HDW 214 as KSS-II). Of course an SSN for Australia would be an even better SEA 1000 choice.

The two 218SGs, together with two existing Kockums Archer Class submarines, will replace the four ageing Challenger Class submarines, built in the 1960s and acquired by Singapore in the 1990s, which will be progressively retired from service. This follows Singaporean Defence Minister Ng Hen's comments in March 2013 about Mindef's plan to replace the Challenger submarines.

The 218SG contract includes a logistics package and the training of Singaporean crew in Germany. The 218SGs will have significantly improved capabilities including Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) which significantly increases a  submarine’s  underwater range and hence reduces the risk of detection.
 
TKMS indicated Singapore Technologies Electronics, a unit of defence conglomerate Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd , would co-develop the submarines' tailor-made combat system with Atlas Elektronik GmbH, a joint venture of ThyssenKrupp and European aerospace group EADS. Atlas already builds combat systems for other HDW subs including the Israeli Dolphin Class.
  
Singapore's projected defence budget for 2013 is Sg$12.34 billion (US$9.84 billion) up from 2012's Sg$11.83 billion in 2012. Under Singaporean law all able-bodied men must serve for two years in the military upon turning 18, providing additional manpower on top of the estimated 20,000 regulars. Singapore, surrounded by far larger neighbours has pursued a robust  defence strategy since its complicated split from Malaysia in 1965. In part due to this large neighbour situation Singapore has cemented close relations with the US, Australian and Israeli military for decades.
 
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 http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/mindef-buys-2-new-submarines-which-will-be-delivered-2020-20131202

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/singapore-to-acquire-two-submarines-from-german-firm-1.419154:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/thyssenkrupp-submarines-idINL5N0JH37T20131202


See this my websites earlier article on Singapore's Archer and Challenger Class submarines at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2009/09/singapore-submarine-development.html
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Pete

The HDW 218SG - probably a 3,000 tonne submarine

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 A 3,000 tonne HDW 218SG submarine would have longer range for Asia-Pacific conditions. The design would include greater diesel and battery capacity, AIP and probably a vertical multi-purpose lock (VMPL) permitting vertical launch capabilities.
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Might the HDW 218SG be a scaled up evolution for Asia Pacific conditions of the mainly European market HDW 214 (photo above)? 
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This article follows on from my earlier article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/singapore-buying-two-hdw-218sg.html announcing Singapore's December 2, 2013, decision to buy two HDW 218SG subs. My estimate (educated guess) is that the HDW 218SG is probably a 3000 tonne submarine - for the following reasons:

  • HDW is increasingly reliant on its Asia-Pacific customer base. Asia-Pacific customers need longer range submarines and other features. In terms of size this signifies a evolution from just below 2,000 tonne HDW 212/214 subs built mainly for European (Baltic, Arctic Ocean, North Atlantic) conditions to an already tested 3,000 tonne design (see below) for Asia-Pacific (Indian and Pacific Oceans) conditions.

  • The already tested 3,000 tonne design is in the shape of TKMS Kockum's 3,000 tonne Collins Class. Note that this is in terms of the Collins overall displacement rather than its internal components - which countries would not want to replicate! TKMS bought Kockums not only to remove Kockums as a competitor to HDW but to utilise Kockums' experience, workforce, technology and design information.

  • HDW is developing the 3,000 tonne, 218 (Asia-Pacific) design not only for Singaporean but for the South Korean market. The 218SG build schedule (for launch around 2019 - 2021) coincides with South Korea's building schedule (from 2018) for its planned 3,000 tonne submarine the KSS-III (D-3000). South Korean subs to date have heavily relied on HDW 209  (KSS-I) and HDW 214 (KSS-II) designs. This pattern suggests that the 3,000 KSS-III will also be heavily based on HDW design work despite South Korea's claims of a wholly "indigenous" KSS-III design.

  • A 3,000 tonne submarine could incorporate heavier battery and increased diesel oil, greater AIP capacity for increased Asia-Pacific range requirements.  Heavier batteries can also allow longer range submerged operation with higher discretion (non-snorkel use) rates against (mainly) Chinese sensor platforms. A vertical launch system (VLS) may be included in a 3,000 tonne design - with a broader concept being vertical multi-purpose lock (VMPL). VLS would make launch of cruise or small ballistic missiles more efficient, quicker and less detectable.

  • A 3,000 tonne submarine would also have the range to permit Singaporean and South Korean use of refuelling-replenishment bases belonging to their US and Australian allies. Such bases include Diego Garcia, Guam, Pearl Harbour and Fremantle (Australia).

  • A design of 4,000+ tonnes would probably not be required for Singapore's operating conditions. A 4,000 tonne would also be unnecessary and difficult to develop and launch in the published 7 year time scale for a 2020 delivery of the 218SG. The 4,000 tonne HDW 216 (only on paper) design is more optimised for long transit range Australian use - see http://www.udt-global.com/files/holger_isbrecht.pdf .

Conclusions

So my (estimated) conclusions are that HDW 218 represents HDW's latest export submarine design for launch around 2018 and first delivery around 2020. The HDW 218 is designed for long-range Asia-Pacific conditions, incorporating AIP and probably a vertical multi-purpose lock (VMPL) all requiring a 3,000 tonne displacement. SG signifies a subset of HDW 218 customised for Singaporean conditions - including air-conditioning for tropical weather, hull-anechoic coating optimised for warmer sea use and a Singapore-specialised combat system.

Pete
 

Asia's Gradual Submarine Race

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The first of six Russian built Kilo 636 subs for the Vietnamese Navy delivered to Vietnam in November 2013, 2,350 tons surfaced-4,000 tons submerged but no AIP.
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 for the US Navy Institute has written a fairly comprehensive article:
 http://news.usni.org/2013/11/13/asias-submarine-race of November 13, 2013 concerning Asia's steadily developing submarine race.

"Asia’s Submarine Race"                    

"Last week’s delivery of the improved Kilo-class submarine Ha Noi to the government of Vietnam was just the latest undersea-vessel acquisition of Asian navies. Asia is in the midst of a submarine buying spree, with most of the major powers planning substantial fleet increases over the next two decades. Two countries, Malaysia and Vietnam, have recently acquired their first submarines while a third, Thailand, is pushing to purchase its first submarines in the near future.

The trend to submarines reflects the desire of Asian countries to protect their recently acquired wealth and enduring economic interests. Much of Asia is dependent on open sea lanes to keep export-driven economies humming, and a recognition of the importance of sea power is driving a general naval expansion throughout the region.
 
Another, more ominous driver is the recent uptick in territorial disputes in Asian littorals, particularly those driven by China. China’s claim of the so-called “Cow’s Tongue” in the South China Sea brings it into conflict with the territorial claims of Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. Meanwhile the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea are claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan.
 
China
 
Fueled by a strong economy, the Chinese navy is making strides in development of a multifaceted
submarine force. One goal of Chinese submarines is to create an anti-access/area denial zone up to what it refers to as the First Island Chain, consisting of the Kuril Islands, Japan, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. The chain represents the absolute minimum to defend the Chinese mainland.
The second goal would be to enforce China’s claims on the East and South China Seas. Patrols and presence missions in the waters surrounding those areas would help press these claims.
 
The Chinese navy is replacing the single Xia-class (092) ballistic missile submarine with up to six modern Jin-class (094) ballistic missile submarines. Each Jin-class displaces 9,000 tons submerged and is equipped with a dozen JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The JL-2 is estimated to have a range of 7,200 kilometers (4,475 miles) and capable of carrying up to eight nuclear warheads.
 
The three submarines of the Shang class (093) represent the second generation of Chinese nuclear attack submarines, the previous Han class having been a technical disappointment. Displacing 6,000 tons submerged, the Shang class features six bow-mounted 533mm torpedo tubes. Built with Russian assistance, only three ships were produced, suggesting the class was less than successful. Yet another class (095) is believed to be under development.
 
China also operates a range of diesel electric submarines. Nine submarines of the Yuan class (041) and the 14 of the smaller Song class (039) represent the indigenously produced fleet. Yuan-class ships displace up to 2,400 tons submerged, while the slightly smaller Song boats rate 2,200 tons submerged. Both are equipped with six bow-mounted 533mm torpedo tubes.
 
China also operates ten improved Kilo submarines purchased from Russia, and earlier this year placed an order for another four Lada-class subs. That latest order, despite production of the Yuan class, suggests dissatisfaction with the performance of the latter.
 
Russia
 
 
The Russian Pacific Fleet reflects the decline of the former Soviet navy’s submarine forces, even more so than the rest of the Russian navy. All of the submarines of the Pacific Fleet were built in the 20th century, with a good number constructed in the 1980s.
 
Four Borey-class ballistic missile submarines will be assigned to the Pacific Fleet in the future, replacing the fleet’s single Delta III submarine. Submarines of the Borey class displace 19,400 tons submerged and are equipped with six 533mm bow-mounted torpedo tubes and 16 SS-N-32 Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Development of the Bulava has been problematic, with nearly half of test launches ending in failure.
 
Four Oscar-class guided-missile submarines serve with the Pacific Fleet. Each displaces 14,500 tons submerged and carries 24 SS-N-19 anti-ship missiles. Torpedo armament is in the form of four 533mm and four 650mm bow-mounted torpedo tubes capable of firing SS-N-16 Stallion and SS-N-15 Starfish anti-submarine missiles, guided torpedoes, and Shkval supercavitating torpedoes.
 
The bulk of the Pacific Fleet’s submarine force lies in its attack submarines—four nuclear powered Akula-I, each displacing more than 8,000 tons submerged. Armament consists of four 533mm and four 650mm bow-mounted torpedo tubes, capable of launching SS-N-21 Sampson land-attack missiles, SS-N-15 anti-submarine missiles, torpedoes, and mines.
 
Finally, there are seven Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, including three improved Kilo submarines. The Kilo-class displaces 3,100 tons submerged, and features six 533mm torpedo tubes capable of launching either SS-N-15s or torpedoes. The ship can alternately carry up to 24 mines, or a mixture thereof.
 
India

INS Chakra II, shortly after its April, 2012 commissioning. Indian Nay Photo
India’s submarine fleet, which faces both Pakistan and China, is in an increasingly precarious position. Indian submarines are growing older as plans to replace them become tangled in bureaucratic red tape, and both of India’s potential enemies’ submarine fleets grow larger and increasingly sophisticated.
 
India has launched its first ballistic missile submarines, the Arihant. Based on the Russian Akula nuclear attack submarine design, the Arihant-class features a 10-meter plug to accommodate four vertical launch silos equipped with K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles. The 6,500-ton submerged submarine also features six 533mm torpedo tubes capable of launching torpedoes or Klub anti-ship missiles. At least three Arihant-class submarines are projected.
 
India also retains one Akula-1 submarine, Chakra, in conventional attack submarine configuration. Displacing 9,100 tons submerged, torpedo armament is identical to the Arihant class. Originally built for the Russian navy as the Nerpa, it suffered from quality control problems and a 15-year construction period. The ship is currently on a ten-year lease to India.
 
In addition to nuclear submarines, India operates a fleet of ten Kilo-class Russian submarines, the oldest of which is 30 years old. One submarine, Sindhurakshak, exploded in port earlier this year and was a total loss. A plan to build six submarines of the Scorpene class—1,700 ton ships equipped with torpedoes and Exocet missiles—has been repeatedly delayed because of bureaucratic and technical problems.
 
Pakistan
 
Pakistan’s sole adversary at sea is India. Pakistan maintains five submarines of the French Agosta class: two are of the original Agosta class built in the 1970s, while the other three are of the modernized Agosta 90B class. The three Agosta 90B submarines displace between 1,760 and 2,010 tons submerged, are equipped with four 533mm bow-mounted torpedo tubes capable of firing torpedoes and Exocet missiles. By 2014 all three will feature an air-independent propulsion system, making them among the most sophisticated submarines in Asia.
 
Japan
 
Japan recently declared an intent to boost its submarine fleet from 16 to 22 ships. Production of the Soryu-class diesel electric submarines continues with last week’s launch of Kokuryu (“Black Dragon”). Eight Soryu-class submarines will be built, the last of which was laid down this year. At 4,200 tons submerged, the Soryu class is one of the few regional submarines to feature air independent propulsion, technology acquired from Sweden. Armament is in the form of six 533mm torpedo tubes capable of launching Type 89 homing torpedoes and Sub Harpoon missiles.
 
Rounding out Japan’s submarine fleet are the 11 submarines of the Oyashio class. At 3,600 tons submerged, armament is identical to that of the Soryu class. It is not clear how Japan intends to grow its submarine fleet, but for the near future that fleet will likely include the Soryu class, the Oyashio class, and the three remaining ships of the Harushio class, 2,750 ton ships with armament identical to the other classes. The oldest Harushio submarine is only 19 years old, the average age at which Japanese subs are retired, but a time when diesel electric submarines in other navies are usually still in service.
 
Japan’s submarine fleet will increase its ability to create an anti-access / area denial force of its own. The Chinese Navy has regularly sortied through the Miyako Strait, the shortest route between the Eastern Fleet’s headquarters and the Western Pacific. Japanese submarines, backed up by surface and air assets, would make Chinese transit of the straits a difficult proposition.
 
Australia
 
Australia’s submarine force lies in the six ships of the Collins class. At 3,300 tons submerged, the ships are theoretically some of the most advanced diesel-electric submarines in existence, with advanced sensors and excellent performance submerged. Six bow-mounted torpedo tubes are capable of firing U.S. Mk-48 ADCAP torpedoes and Sub Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
 
The Collins class has been beset with problems since the lead ship entered service. Software problems, hydrodynamic flow problems, cracked propellers, engine and gearbox seal problems, and periscope vibration have all contributed to a low operational readiness rate for the submarines. At one point in 2009 only one submarine, HMAS Farncomb, was rated capable of sea duty. That is expected to improve to four submarines capable of sea duty by early 2014.
 
In 2009 the Australian government called for replacing the six ships of the Collins class with a dozen submarines of an advanced design. The new design likely will be either an evolution of the Collins design or something new, and will be built in Australian shipyards. In the meantime the Collins class will continue to serve, with upgrades, until at least 2030.
 
Singapore
 
Sitting astride the southern approach to the Strait of Malacca, Singapore is in close proximity to one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. Singapore has two submarines of the Archer class, submarines originally built for the Swedish navy. Although up to 25 years old, the Archer class was extensively refitted, including the addition of air-independent auxiliary engines. Each Archer class submarine displaces 1,600 tons submerged and has six bow-mounted 533mm torpedo tubes and three bow-mounted 400mm torpedo tubes. The ships also are capable of carrying up to 22 mines in external portable containers.
 
Singapore additionally has four submarines of the Centurion class. Also Swedish in origin, the Centurion boats were built in the late 1960s but remain in excellent condition when retired. At 1,400 tons submerged, each packs four 533mm and two 400mm bow-mounted torpedo tubes.
 
North Korea
 
The North Korean economy did not adjust well to the fall of the Soviet Union, and its navy, the service with the lowest priority in terms of resources, has particularly undergone hard times. Since then North Korea has begun constructing submarines of less than 500 tons, one of which sank the Republic of Korea Navy corvette Cheonan in 2010.
 
Originally the mainstay of the North Korean submarine force, the 20 Soviet-designed, Chinese-built Romeo-class diesel electric submarines are slowly being phased out in favor of the Sang-O class of coastal submarines. Up to 40 Sang-O-class ships have been produced. The Sang-O class displaces 325 tons submerged, is equipped with four 533mm torpedo tubes, and can carry up to 16 mines. At least some ships of the class are unarmed infiltration submarines designed to ferry North Korean special forces. A lengthened version, the K-300, was identified in 2011.
 
North Korea also operates up to 10 midget submarines of the Yono class. At 130 tons submerged, featuring two 533mm torpedo tubes, it is believed to be the type of submarine responsible for the sinking of South Korean Cheonan.
 
South Korea
 
Like the rest of the Republic of Korea Navy, the submarine force is in a period of expansion and is expected to double over the next 20 years. The current force consists of nine Type 209 submarines, built in both Germany and South Korea. The Type 209s displace 1,300 tons submerged and are equipped with four bow-mounted 533mm torpedo tubes capable of firing torpedoes and laying mines. Some ships in the class are capable of firing Sub Harpoon.
 
In addition to the Type 209s, a force of nine Type 214 submarines is also under construction, with three completed. At 1,800 tons submerged the 214s are heavier than their predecessors and carry twice as many torpedo tubes, all of which will be capable of firing Sub Harpoon.
 
A future submarine program, KSX-III, envisions nine submarines of 3,000 tons entering service around 2020.
 
Taiwan
 
Taiwan has four aging diesel-electric submarines — the oldest of which are of World War II vintage. Taiwan for some time has expressed a desire to find a replacement, but has been unable to find submarine producing countries that are willing to defy Chinese political pressure. The only potential provider of submarines, the United States, does not build diesel-electric submarines.
 
Vietnam
 
In April 2009 Vietnam signed a deal with Russia for six new so-called “Improved Kilo” (Project 636) submarines for $1.8 billion. The six diesel electric submarines will be the first Vietnamese submarines in service. Displacing 4,000 tons submerged, the Ha Noi class mounts six 533mm torpedo tubes capable of launching torpedoes or SS-N-27 (“Klub”) anti-ship missiles. The first of the six submarines, Ha Noi, was delivered to Vietnam on 7 November. The last of the boats is scheduled for delivery by 2016. Up to 50 mines may be carried as an alternative to torpedoes and missiles, an important area-denial capability.
 
Indonesia
 
The Indonesian navy’s submarine inventory currently consists of two aging submarines of the German Type 209 class, Cakra and Naggala. The submarines displace 1,400 tons submerged, have eight bow mounted torpedo tubes, and the option to lay mines. Both are over 30 years old and despite repeated refits are currently out of service awaiting upgrades. Daewoo of South Korea was contracted to modernize Cakra, which was supposed to be completed by 2013.
 
Indonesia’s Defense Strategic Plan 2024 calls for a fivefold increase in the number of submarines over the next 11 years. Toward that end Indonesia has ordered three modified Type 209 submarines, to be built in both South Korea and Indonesia. The 1,600 ton vessels will feature eight 533mm torpedo tubes, capable of launching a mixture of torpedoes and mines. The submarines will begin entering service in 2015, with all three completed by 2018.
 
Malaysia
 
Malaysia recently completed purchase of its first two submarines, the Scorpene-class vessels Tunku Abdul Rahman, and Tun Razak. At 1,740 tons submerged, the submarines have six 533mm torpedo tubes, capable of firing Black Shark homing torpedoes and Exocet anti-ship missiles. The submarines are not fitted with an air-independent propulsion system, but the boat’s design makes an option for future installation.
 
The submarines were built by the French defense contractor DCNS and Spain’s Navantia. Tunku Abdul Rahman had problems early on with her cooling system and was unable to dive, but those issues are thought to have been solved. The two submarines were purchased, along with training, for $1.1 billion. Crews for the submarines were trained locally, on board the retired French navy submarine Quessant.
 
Thailand
 
Thailand does not own any submarines, but it is laying the groundwork for a future fleet. A submarine fleet headquarters at Sattahip Naval Base will be completed in 2014. Thailand has sent officers to attend submarine training in Germany and South Korea, and will also soon complete construction of a Submarine Command Team Trainer. The Thai Ministry of Defense proposed purchasing six used Type 209 submarines from Germany in 2011, but the sale was canceled."

Australian submarine selection, GMH closing, defence spending

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Part of the Australian Submarine Corporation's complex, Adelaide, South Australia (Image from http://www.hassellstudio.com/cms_images/389_26-07-2011_5562.png )
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Most public interest generally focusses on a submarine's military technology, attributes and functions. Submarine technology, tactics and their missiles are cool. But below the surface are other pivotal matters including domestic industrial policy, jobs, international relations and government budgeting.

The December 10-11, 2013 announcement that General Motors Holden (GMH) will close its Adelaide factory in 2017 (Adelaide's Mitsubishi car factory closed in 2008) will impact on Australia's submarine selection. Adelaide is the capital of the ship-submarine building state of South Australia. South Australia relies on manufacturing more than other Australian states because South Australia has smaller mining, energy and agricultural resources than most states. Australia's federal government may well find it necessary to direct more funding, in the shape of defence spending, to South Australia, for jobs, economic growth and ultimately votes.

The Adelaide based Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC) is Australia's largest domestic defence company (as distinct from foreign owned Boeing and Lockheed Martin). From the 1980s to the 2000s ASC (working with Kockums and other foreign corporations) built the six Collins Class submarines. ASC is now involved in the expensive and extensive maintenance of the six Collins - see http://www.asc.com.au/en/Programs/Submarines/ .

ASC's main current defence construction activity is building the three Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers (AWDs) - also see http://www.asc.com.au/en/Programs/Ships/ .  

Timing

The closure of GMH in Adelaide in 2017 may impact not only on the Federal and South Australian states determination to that the future submarines be constructed domestically but also impact on the timing of future submarine project - SEA 1000
http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/id/dcp/html_dec10/sea/Sea1000.html . As things stand it appears that many of the decisions for SEA 1000 might not be made until 2020, if not later. South Australian workers, businessmen and voters may well object to this timing. An earlier decision that might involve the ASC concurrently performing substantial work on a future submarine, as well as completing the AWDs, may be necessary.

Pete  

Australian Oberon Submarine Intelligence Gathering

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 One of the six Oberon Class submarines operated by Australia 1967-2000.
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On November 28, 2003 Geoffrey Barker for the Australian Financial Review published the following long but interesting article which was reproduced on Submarine Association Australia's Up Periscope website. The article indicates attack submarines, all over the world, are mainly reconnaissance (intelligence gathering) platforms in peacetime and in many phases of war. Mentioned in the article are Australia's six Oberon Class  submarines which served from 1967 to 2000, preceding the current Collins Class. I've bolded some of the most interesting bits. The article's string is http://upperiscope.com.au/miscellaneous/The%20mystery%20boats.html :

"The Mystery Boats"

It's the great untold story of Australian naval history. Throughout the last decade of the cold war, Australian Oberon-class submarines conducted perilous intelligence-gathering operations off the coasts of Vietnam, Indonesia, China and India as part of a global effort to check the Soviet Navy's formidable fleet. Shrouded in secrecy until now, their exposure would have had the power to bring down the government of the day.

DEEP BELOW the choppy surface of the South China Sea, they waited in silence. Inside a black, barnacled metal cigar, 90 metres long and 8.7 metres wide, the stench of diesel fuel and the sour sweat of the crowded 75 men pervaded the humid heat, but nobody noticed. On the surface above, a new Soviet frigate was heading into Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay at a gentle five to six knots.

Seeing an opportunity for what submariners call an `underwater look', the O-boat commanding officer (CO) positioned himself about 1,000 yards (914 metres) behind the frigate to check its speed and course. Then he dived deep and closed quickly to about 200 yards behind the frigate to calculate the depth at which he could photograph its hull shape, propellers, weapons systems and sonar. How close he came would depend on the sea, the keel depth of the frigate and the height of the submarine.

With these calculations in mind, the CO slowed the submarine to about a half-knot above the frigate's speed and listened to course and direction readings from his sonar operators. "Red two getting louder ... Green three softer ... right ahead," the sonar operators called, indicating how many degrees to port or starboard, or how directly, the two vessels were aligned. When the submarine was just 50 yards behind the frigate, the CO raised his periscope. Now, finally, he could see the wake of the frigate. It was his first close visual sighting."

He brought the submarine to within six feet (1.8 metres) of the frigate's hull and passed silently along one side. The O-boat's cameras and hydrophones recorded the images and sounds of the Soviet vessel. Once past the frigate, the CO altered course slightly, slowed down, and allowed the unsuspecting surface vessel to overtake the submarine on the opposite side. Again, the cameras and hydrophones were recording. "If you got it right the first time, it generally took about 30 minutes to complete the maneuver," retired Rear-Admiral Peter Clarke tells The AFR Magazine, 20 years later. "But it was a very full-on thing. You were driving several thousand tons of submarine to within feet of a vessel that you could not see."

Rear-Admiral Clarke commanded the British O-boat HMS Oberon and the nuclear submarine HMS Tireless before transferring to the RAN 10 years ago. A former RAN submarine squadron commander and force element group leader, he adds: "You had to have a three-dimensional picture in your head of what was happening in the water. If you were taking an underwater look at a submarine, you were always concerned that it might dive onto you."

An underwater look was particularly perilous in the warm and turbid water of the South China Sea where visibility is poor. "If we'd raised our periscope, we would have punctured the surface ship's hull," another former O-boat commander recalls. But the risks of collision and death, or of the humiliation of discovery and capture, were worth taking for the intelligence rewards. A successful underwater look would give Western navies complete and accurate knowledge of the defensive and offensive performance capabilities of a potential Soviet adversary. In the event of hostilities, this would be an important combat edge.

WHAT EXACTLY the O-boats did from the end of the 1970s until the early 1990s has been one of the great untold stories of Australian naval history - until now. A decade after the end of the patrols, and nearly five years after the last O-boat was replaced by the Australian-built Collins class submarines, the navy is still extremely reluctant to discuss the patrols.

Many former O-boat commanders say their work and achievements are still too sensitive to disclose. But they want their story to be told and acknowledged. One reason their freedom to speak openly is still restricted by security regulations is that the Collins class submarines are now engaged in sensitive intelligence-collection activities. "We don't want to spook the neighborhood," one know-ledgeable political figure says.

But some lips have been loosened by the publication of books on the Cold War activities of the US and British submarine forces. Blind Man's Bluff: The Untold Story of American Submarine Espionage, by Sherry Sontag and Christopher Drew (Public Affairs, 1998), tells the American story. We Come Unseen by Jim Ring (John Murray, 2001) tells the British story.

Against the background of these publications, some Australian politicians, public servants and submariners have been prepared to give The [Australian Financial Review] AFR Magazine a glimpse into the secret and silent Cold War world of the O-boats, albeit usually on condition of anonymity. Quite apart from revealing a remarkable chapter of Australian maritime history for the first time, the story of the O-boat patrols shows just how diligently Australia has, down the decades and under successive governments, pursued the US alliance.

The Australian O-boat patrols were a response to increasing concerns about the expansion of the Soviet Pacific Fleet under Admiral Sergei Gorshkov from the early 1970s. "It was the second biggest fleet after the Northern Fleet based at Murmansk," a former intelligence officer recalls. "By the late 1980s, Cam Ranh Bay on Vietnam's east coast had become a highly significant Soviet base. There were at least 15 surface ships, some submarines, 30 bomber aircraft, a SIGINT [signal intelligence] station, missile-handling facilities and 10,000 Soviet troops," he says.

From Cam Ranh Bay, Soviet ships would go into the Pacific to target the West Coast of the US. And they were only a few days' travel from Australia's vital sea lines of communications. So the US and Australia shared concerns about the strategic implications of the big Soviet presence. Ironically, the Cam Ranh Bay base had been built by the Americans during the Vietnam war, but was leased by Vietnam to the Soviet Union in 1979. (In May last year, Russia agreed to hand it back to Vietnam.)

Australia's secret O-boat patrols started in 1978 and ended in 1992. They were cancelled by the then Defence Minister in the Keating Labor government, Senator Robert Ray, who, according to senior submariners, panicked when told that one of the O-boats had come dangerously close to being detected. "We paid a high price with that cancellation, both in terms of the body of knowledge we were developing, and in terms of maintenance of the capability," says one veteran of the patrols.

There were, in all, 16 patrols during those 14 years, meaning that one O-boat was out collecting intelligence continuously for part of each year. Two of the six O-boats - Orion and Otama - were the RAN's designated `mystery boats' and were specially fitted for intelligence collection. They made most of the patrols, but Otway and Oxley also made secret patrols. Onslow and Ovens were not involved, but were deployed to track Soviet submarines moving into the Arabian Gulf from Vladivostok via the Coral Sea, south of Tasmania, across the Great Australian Bight and past Cape Leeuwin in WA. The Soviet subs took this route in an effort to avoid detection, but Onslow and Ovens kept an eye on them.

The men primarily responsible for the patrols were former O-boat CO (Otama, Onslow and Otway) Commander Peter Horobin, who was deputy director of submarine policy, and the electronics expert James Armstrong, director of Navy Electronic Warfare. Horobin was a quiet and utterly determined Australian; Armstrong a brilliant English boffin who shocked his colleagues when he announced one day that his uncle was Donald Maclean, the notorious Soviet spy.

It is still not clear exactly why the RAN started the patrols. Some former O-boat commanders believe Australia felt it had to contribute high-quality intelligence to the US and UK to establish the RAN's credentials and credibility at what was then the sharp end of the global Cold War submarine contest. Former intelligence officers say the patrols started at the request of the US. What is certain is that the Australian submarine arm won its spurs in these perilous days of the Cold War.

This was partly because the large US nuclear-powered deep ocean attack submarines were less suited to close-in intelligence-collection patrols in relatively shallow coastal waters. Moreover, the US and British nuclear submarine fleets were fully occupied tracking Soviet submarine activity from their submarine bases on the icy Kola Peninsula in the Barents Sea and at Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka peninsula below the Sea of Okhotsk. US boats were also watching Soviet Pacific Fleet headquarters at Vladivostok on the Sea of Japan.

In the Northern waters, especially in the Arctic region, British Oberon class submarines were conducting electronic surveillance, acoustic signature recording and underwater looks. So it fell to the Australian O-boats to target Cam Ranh Bay and the South China Sea. They also, inevitably, took the opportunity to look over, and listen in to, places of interest en route on the coasts of China and India, which had close defence relations with the Soviet Union. "Conventional submarines are much better than nuclear submarines at littoral surveillance," a political figure familiar with the secret patrols says. "They can get into harbours for a decent look. They can get close to boats and have a useful capacity to listen to their emissions and look at their sonar and propulsion systems.

"If they get close to the coast they also have a capacity to hear what else is around. By getting close to a facility or to a city you can identify a considerable amount of what is being emitted. And that is useful for targeting purposes," he says.

The men who drove the O-boats were among the most remarkable Australian seafarers of their generation. Former commanding officers remember their training at the famous British Perisher submarine command course and their patrols as the most intensely lived moments of their lives. They included the legendary Commander Bob Woolrych, now an avocado farmer in Queensland, and retired Rear-Admiral Peter Briggs, who ended a distinguished naval career in charge of the Collins class submarine repair operation. Others remain in sensitive naval and intelligence posts.

The RAN acquired its six O-boats over 10 years from 1967 to replace a British submarine squadron that had operated in Australia since World War II. Built in Scotland, the O-boats were in service for 30 years. With refits and updates, they were the most silent and capable conventional diesel-electric submarines of their time and ideal for coastal intelligence collection.

The submerged displacement weight of the O-boats was 2,400 tons; their draft was 5. 5 metres. Their maximum speed was 12 knots on the surface and 17.5 knots submerged. Their maximum safe dive depth was 200 metres. Fully armed, the O-boats carried 28 torpedoes that could be fired from six torpedo tubes. They could carry 100,000 gallons of diesel fuel in internal tanks and in numbers three and five of the main ballast tanks. In theory, they could circumnavigate the globe without refuelling.

Designed to accommodate a crew of five officers and 57 ratings, the so-called `mystery boats' usually went on patrol with more than 70 people on board. In addition to their normal complement, there were always some submarine service trainees and civilian `spooks' operating specialised intelligence-collection equipment. Among the crew, monitoring communications from shore facilities and vessels at sea, were specialist linguists, fluent in Russian and regional languages, who could warn of any indication that the submarine had been detected.

During patrols, perhaps not more than 10 people on board would know the boat's location. A curtain was placed around the chart table to discourage curious crew members. Once on patrol, crews quickly adjusted to the crowding and the stink of diesel and sweat; to `hot-bunking' or sleeping on torpedo racks; to careful water use and to the need for minimal noise.

Initial personal tensions evaporated quickly once patrols were under way, although some COs noted that they tended to resurface as patrols ended and crews neared home. One O-boat had an unpopular executive officer named Trevor. The crew smuggled a budgerigar aboard, named it `Trevor the Budgie' and trained it to shit on the officer's white shirt.

On top of the crowded, uncomfortable conditions, O-boat crews had to endure occasional food shortages. One crew famously survived for weeks on omelettes, scrambled eggs and pavlova when it found its supplies reduced to egg powder alone. Another ran out of toilet paper in the first week of a six-week patrol.

More generally, life on the O-boats was lonely and isolated, as well as perilous. There was no communication with families. Personal bad news was withheld from crew members until patrols ended. And there was always the possibility of death at sea, or capture and imprisonment - or execution - as spies.

To the dismay of some O-boat veterans, the Australian Government has refused to recognise their service as warlike and denied their request for an active service medal (see box page 21). The issue particularly rankles with Bob Woolrych. "In the event of capture, there were quite specific instructions on what to ask for in order to get better treatment. We thought it an exercise in pissing into the wind at the time ... We would have been thrown to the sharks," he says.

The O-boats were organised in two watches and could be brought to action on either watch. Crews worked six-hour shifts and had four meals per day. Commanding officers, though, tended to survive on only two to two-and-a-half hours' sleep in every 24-hour period on patrol. "You were always prowling," one CO recalls.

The story of the O-boats is a salutary reminder of the seriousness of the long Cold War nuclear standoff that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The derring-do of underwater looks wasn't the main activity of the O-boats. During their six-week patrols, mostly out of HMAS Platypus, their base in Neutral Bay, Sydney, they spent most of their time submerged in the South China Sea, with antennas raised above the water, conducting electronic surveillance. "Hoovering stuff out of the atmosphere," is how one former commander describes the activity.

Their other task was to record the acoustic signatures of Soviet surface ships and submarines. The O-boat would lie submerged and silent, passive sonar hydrophones switched on, to record the sounds of passing ships and submarines. "We have been able to identify signatures for individual ships. Hulls, air-conditioning, pumps, have characteristic sound signatures," a commander recalls. The recorded sound signatures were fed into the computers of Australian, American and British submarines. This would enable them to identify the vessel and its capabilities in the event of hostilities. Again the combat edge would be important.

Although they operated under rules of engagement that prevented them from trespassing on the territorial waters of littoral states, they were permitted to pursue interesting targets if the CO judged the intelligence pay-off was worth the risk. The strictly enforced rule, however, was that the O-boats had to stay on the high seas.

As one former Commander says: "There was no need to enter territorial waters, and the penalties were too high if you were caught. Most of the navy didn't know what we were doing, and probably only two politicians - the prime minister and the defence minister. You had an obligation to get it right, because if you stuffed up you could bring down a government." The O-boats were certainly not permitted to make pre-emptive torpedo attacks against potential adversaries, but they were permitted to go within six feet (1.8 metres) of vessels for those `underwater looks'.

With the growth of the Soviet nuclear submarine fleet in the Atlantic theatre in the 1970s, the US navy set itself the task of achieving timely indications and warnings 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Assisted by the smaller British submarine fleet, the US succeeded. A main focus of the British activity was high-quality intelligence collection, including from British Oberon class submarines.

Australian O-boat commanders agree that the Australian program grew out of the British program and from the strong historical and cultural links between the British and Australian submarine services. According to some authorities, however, the patrols may have acquired special urgency following the New Zealand Government decision in 1984 to exclude nuclear-armed American warships, and indeed all nuclear-armed vessels, from NZ waters.

The Americans responded to what they saw as a major crisis in the Western alliance by excluding New Zealand from what was known at the time as the `Five Eyes' - the intelligence-sharing arrangements between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and the US. The group was known secretly as `AUSCANNZUKUS'. It held annual conferences with plenary, working and top-secret sessions.

The US eventually agreed that New Zealand could remain a member of the Five Eyes, but that it could not continue to receive the top-level information. At the time, despite its opposition to the NZ nuclear-ship policy, Australia found itself disadvantaged by regional association with New Zealand. Australian delegates at the 1984 and 1985 conferences, held in Washington and Ottawa, sensed that they too were being excluded from what one authority called "the really sexy stuff".

They were certainly excluded from the top-secret sessions. The result was a more intense Australian effort to regain US favour and full Five Eyes access by producing more and better intelligence information from its O-boat patrols. It was a gambit that worked to Australia's great advantage.

But long before these developments Australia had selected Orion and Otama to be its `mystery boats'. They were given a specialised fit with, among other things, upward-looking cameras, detuned hydrophones to record unfiltered noise, and other sensors. Initially, however, the program did not have strong political or even navy support. "A lot was done by blokes on an ad hoc basis," Rear Admiral Clarke remembers. "The Defence Science and Technology Organisation and the Defence Signals Directorate worked on bits and pieces and so did some navy boffins. It was good stuff, done on a wing and a prayer. They did outstanding work."

Another former CO remembers that Orion, at least, was worked up for its role as a `mystery boat' before it left the UK for Australia. "The Royal Navy were very good to us," another CO says. "They took out a lot of old gear and we got better cameras." A typical O-boat patrol would last from six to eight weeks from its beginning to its end at HMAS Platypus.

The first eight to 10 days would be a fast surface transit at about 12 knots. Then a surface-dive transit would follow at seven to 10 knots before a so-called `discreet transit' into the area of operations. During three to three-and-a-half weeks on station - listening, recording, watching - the O-boat remained submerged, with only masts raised, operating in what was called `ultra-quiet' state.

The vessel might move out to sea from its offshore position at night in order to perform noisy tasks, including discharging wastes and charging batteries. On its return home, the boat's performance would be affected by the drag created by barnacles that grew quickly in the warm South China Sea waters, clinging even to periscope lenses. Some O-boat commanders surfaced and scraped the barnacles at sea before entering port; others preferred to remove them with high-pressure water hoses once they were docked.

Despite the dangers they faced and the extraordinary intelligence they collected, there seems a consensus among former O-boat commanders that their patrols into the Pacific, South China Sea and the Indian Ocean were relatively less intense and less important than the US and British patrols in the Atlantic, Arctic and northern Pacific regions. "For Washington," a former commander says, "the primary interest was the Atlantic. It was more politically sensitive. Washington and London saw the Atlantic threat as more immediate than the Pacific threat."

"I think we were always up against the second 11," says another. Russian technology was never as good as ours. The Russians out of Cam Ranh Bay were not built for the tropics. They relied on petty officers and a crew of conscripts who knew very little. Their operations in the Pacific were at the lower end of the scale. They may have been better in home waters."

None of this diminishes in any way the Cold War contribution of the O-boats. Senior figures in the US administration acknowledge the importance of their role and estimate that the Collins class submarines now boost US naval capability in the Pacific by 20 per cent. At the very least, as one O-boat commander puts it, the secret patrols admitted Australia to one of the biggest big games in the Cold War and demonstrated the capacity of the Australian submarine arm at a time of high international tension.

And where are they now? Onslow is at Sydney's Darling Harbour; Oxley is in a park at Holbrook in southern NSW; Ovens is in Fremantle, WA; Otama is being prepared for display at Hastings, Victoria; Oxley's fin is on display at HMAS Stirling, WA; and Orion will be scrapped.

Mystery boats no longer, the O-boats are now museum attractions, climbed over daily by children and parents who marvel at the equipment and machinery packed into their claustrophobic narrowness. They ask how more than 70 human beings managed to exist for nearly two months at a time inside these cramped and dangerous spaces far below the surface of the sea. The answer is simple: they were brave and balanced men who knew they were doing vital work for their country.

A test of their medal

"The work was known to very few in government, defence and navy. The missions were conducted as `war patrols' and the tasks undertaken by these submarines [were] considered ... to be among the most hazardous undertaken by RAN seagoing units for many decades."

These words were written by the national president of the Australian Submarine Association, Captain Barry Nobes (rtd), to the Defence Force Chief General Peter Cosgrove as part of a plea for the Australian Active Service Medal (special operations) to be awarded to submariners who served on the secret spy patrols.

Reflecting the submariners' view that they had not been adequately recognised with the award of the Australian Service Medal (with special ops clasp), Nobes reminded Cosgrove that the O-boat patrols "were of great importance to the nation in the era of the Cold War."

But Cosgrove was unmoved. Whether the AASM or the ASM was the appropriate medal, he replied in August this year, hinged on the definition of `warlike' and `non-warlike' operations `under current regulations'. And the reviewing officers had determined the O-boat service warranted the ASM with special ops clasp because the operations were non-warlike.

Why? "... the nature of these patrols was not warlike," Cosgrove wrote, "because the application of force was not authorised, there was no expectations of casualties, there was no state of declared war, there were no conventional combat operations against an armed adversary [and] they were not peace-enforcement operations."

Cosgrove's ruling offended O-boat drivers who had operated under rules of engagement that allowed hot pursuit of intelligence targets and permitted submarines to move to within feet of surface ships for intelligence-collection purposes. But Cosgrove was adamant, telling the submariners that they could be proud of their ASM with special ops clasp, and concluding: "I regret that I can be of no further assistance to you in the matter."

Some submariners were annoyed by Captain Nobes's subsequent advice to them: "... we should accept this decision with the knowledge that we have done our best to secure a favourable outcome, but the regulations ... are very unlikely to be changed [and] do not permit it. I believe that any further submissions will be futile and possibly counter-productive in other areas, such as health and welfare, where we really do need support.

It is unlikely that this will be the last word on the medal issue. Submariners are tough and determined old salts and their claim for the AASM does seem to have been sunk by regulations that define warlike service very narrowly indeed. If the nature of the patrols and the dangers to which they exposed crews were not in the ordinary meaning of the word `warlike', then it is hard to see just what would qualify.

Certainly to describe such patrols as `non-warlike' is to play down the hazards and the accomplishments. Service in the O-boats required courage and daring. It was more sustained and more active than much of the military service that now qualifies as active service."
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Pete

Japan's Epsilon Rocket an ICBM in Waiting

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A Japanese Epsilon research rocket (potentially an ICBM) launched from Uchinoura Space Center in southern Japan.
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Click to enlarge Japan's Epsilon rocket. Specifications for the Epsilon include: Height 24.4m, Diameter 2.5m, Mass 91 tons, 3 or 4 stages. Its shape, with no strap-on boosters, is ideal for silo, rail or truck launch. Reduced to 2 stages it might provide the basis for an SLBM.

The Epsilon's specifications are roughly equivalent to one of Russia's currently deployed ICBMs, the SS-19 Stiletto, with a Height 27m, Diameter 2.5m, Weight 106 tons, 2 stages, blast yield 550 kt to 5 Mt (using up to 10 MIRVs).
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NTI August 23, 2013 reported on Japan's increasing ability to develop ICBM - which of course are the primary means of delivering nuclear weapons  http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/japans-new-military-buildup-seen-response-north-korea-china/ :

"Japan's New Military Buildup Seen as Response to North Korea, China"


After decades of hewing to a strictly self-defensive military posture, Japan in recent months has indicated it plans to acquire offensive military capabilities such as ballistic missiles that could be used to carry out advance attacks on North Korea's strategic assets.

Some of Japan's space-program activities have applications in the development of strategic weapons. On Tuesday, the island nation is slated to fire its solid-fueled Epsilon rocket which could potentially be adapted to power an ICBM.

[The first launch of Epsilon, of a small scientific satellite SPRINT-A, occurred on September 14, 2013 at Uchinoura Space Center using a two (solid fuel) stage version of Epsilon.]

These armament plans have raised regional concerns that Tokyo may be shedding its post-World War II pacifist defense posture.

"What is worrisomely ... is that Japan's rearmament would be met with China's reaction, which could cause regional instability," Korea National Defense University Japan researcher Park Young-june said.

The United States, however, is seen as supportive of Japan taking on a more assertive regional role, as it could be useful in meeting the challenge of China's growing military might."

Background

A Coalition Christmas Card

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Australia's Liberal-National Party Coalition Government have sent me this Christmas Card personally - for services to international submarine research :)
 
Merry Christmas
 
Pete 

 

China selling two Type 035 Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh

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A flotilla or two of Chinese Type 035 Ming-class submarines.
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http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/china-to-sell-bangladesh-2-submarines/ based on a Bangladeshi New Age article http://newagebd.com/detail.php?date=2013-12-20&nid=77363#.Urjor2fxvX5

For details on the Ming-class see http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/ming.htm and its specifications http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/ming-specs.htm

The Ming-class submarines (Type 035) are diesel-electric powered submarines based on the Romeo-class submarines that the Soviet Union built in the 1950s. The Russian Romeos in turn utilised much of the technology in the German World War Two Type XXI U-boats.

Comment

While officers and crew usually total 55 for each submarine the New Age report, that only seventeen Bangladeshi sailors are being trained to operate the submarines, is puzzling. Does that mean there will be around 46 Chinese officers and crew as "advisers" on each submarine? Will they therefore be de facto Chinese submarines under Bangladeshi false flags?
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Pete

Volgograd bombings and Sochi Olympic security

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The location of the first bombing (December 29, 2013) at Volgograd's main train station. Volgograd was known as Stalingrad in World War Two. The sculpture in front is a representation of the Barmaley Fountain - the most iconic symbol of the Battle of Stalingrad.  
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Below is an article I wrote - published on Australia's On Line Opinion http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=15876

Volgograd bombings and Sochi Olympic security

Chinese SLBMs and DF-21D carrier killers, 2013

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The area in yellow is the maximum claimed range of 3,000 km for the DF-21D anti-ship (and ASW?) "carrier killer" ballistic missile. A shorter claimed range of 1,450 km may be for a heavy warheads - see my final comments below. The outer perimeter of the yellow zone may be from launch points from coastal China, particularly Hainan Island. The physics of the DF-21D may mean it can't hit a target that is less than 100 km from launch point - see http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20131213000003&cid=1101
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This diagram of the DF-21D Guidance System includes remote radar on land, aircraft, drones, sea and satellite and sensors on the warhead itself. I maintain that the same sensor platforms and undersea sensors placed by China would also provide nuclear and conventional warhead DF-21Ds with an anti-submarine capability.
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China's JL-2 (CSSNX-14) SLBM. Though it is China's main SLBM it was still under development in 2013. 
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After terrorism and Iran and Pakistan's nuclear status US civilian and military intelligence are most interested in the growth in capabilities of China’s military forces. This is because China’s forces might pass US forces in size as China’s economy grows larger than the US economy. China’s transition to becoming No.1 in military and economic size may occur in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Whether China will be No.1 in military capability during that period is also dependent on the quality of China’s military personnel and technology. The degree of politically imposed limitations will also influence capability as the red bolded section of the report below reveals.
Below are excerpts from Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Chinese nuclear forces, 2013, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists2013, Vol. 69, No. 6, pp. 79-85, http://bos.sagepub.com/content/69/6/79.full.pdfThey include some interesting comments regarding Chinese SSBNs, SLBMs, Chinese area or sea denial DF-21D missiles that perform some of the anti-surface ship and ASW functions of submarines. The red bolded section provides comments on the high degree of Communist Party Central Military Commission caution and political control concerning China's nuclear forces. This degree of control may handicap the capability of these forces during threats and actual nuclear war.
SSBNs and SLBMs
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The authors report:
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[p. 82] China has two types of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) developed for two types of nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines: the JL-1 and JL-2. Neither missile is operational.
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The 1,700-km-range, two-stage JL-1 (CSS-NX-3) SLBM developed for a single old Xia-class (Type 092) submarine first entered service in 1986 and is not considered operational. The Xia is based at the North Fleet Base near Qingdao in the Shandong province. The submarine underwent a lengthy shipyard overhaul in 2005-2006 but appears to have stayed in port since then. The Xia/JL-1 weapon system is expected to be retired soon.
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Development of the new JL-2 (CSSNX-14) SLBM for the second-generation Jin-class (Type 094) submarine is nearing completion. After several setbacks,China appears to have overcome
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[p. 83] technical difficulties and successfully test-launched the JL-2 in 2012-2013. The US intelligence community expects the JL-2 may reach initial operational capability in 2013 or 2014. [Endnote 5. The Pentagon predicts initial operational capability in 2013 (Defense Department, 2013), while the Defense Intelligence Agency (2013) predicts initial operational capability in 2014.]
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The JL-2 is a modified version of the DF-31. Equipped with a single warhead and, possibly, penetration aids, the JL-2 has never been flight-tested to its full range but is estimated to have a range of 7,000-plus km. Such a range is sufficient to target Alaska, Guam, Russia, and India from waters near China but unless the submarine sails significantly eastward, not the continental United States.
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Three Jin-class submarines are in service (without missiles), and the US intelligence community speculates that China may build a total of five before proceeding to develop a third-generation (Type 096) over the next decade.
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With 12 missile-launch tubes per submarine, three Jin-class boats could carry 36 missiles with an equal number of warheads - a significant increase from the 12 SLBMs that the sole Xia-class submarine carried.
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The Pentagon asserts that the Jin/JL-2 weapon system “will give the PLA Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent” (Defense Department, 2013: 6). While that may be true in theory, a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine fleet faces several doctrinal, technical, and operational constraints in practice. Under current doctrine, China’s Central Military Commission does not allow the military services to have warheads deployed on missiles under normal circumstances. Handing over custody of nuclear warheads to deployed submarines in peacetime would constitute a significant change of Chinese doctrine.
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Moreover, no Chinese ballistic missile submarine has ever sailed on a deterrent patrol, so China’s navy and the Central Military Commission have essentially no experience in operating a submarine force during realistic military operations. Developing this capability will require development of new command-and control technologies and procedures.
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But even if China deployed warheads on submarines and sent them to sea in a crisis, where would they sail? For a JL-2 to reach the continental United States, a Jin-class submarine would have to sail through the East China Sea and well into the Pacific Ocean, through dangerous choke points where it would be vulnerable to hostile antisubmarine warfare. [Endnote 6: Chinese nuclear submarines are apparently very noisy (Kristensen, 2009b).]
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China’s main concern is the survivability of its minimum nuclear deterrent, and it spends considerable resources on dispersing and hiding its land-based missiles. This makes its submarine program puzzling, for it is much riskier to deploy nuclear weapons at sea, where submarines can be sunk by unfriendly forces, than to deploy them on land.”
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DF-21D Anti-ship (and anti-submarine?) Missile
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Pete’s Comment - Chinese area or sea denial MRBMs missiles perform some of the anti-surface ship and ASW functions usually performed by submarines.
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[p. 81] “China’s primary regional nuclear missile is the two-stage, solid-fuel, road-mobile DF-21 (CSS-5) medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). The DF-21 exists in two nuclear versions: the DF-21 (CSS-5 Mod 1) and the newer DF-21A (CSS-5 Mod2)… the new version probably has a longer range of about 2,150 km.
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China has also started deploying conventionally armed versions of the DF-21 (the DF-21C, and the DF-21D which is an anti-ship missile), a potentially dangerous mix of nuclear and conventional missiles that creates risks of misunderstanding, miscalculation, and mistaken nuclear escalation in a crisis. [Endnote 4: The Second Artillery's organization of DF-21s is unclear, but it is thought that nuclear and conventional units are kept separate. For insightful studies of China's missile force, see Stokes (2010) and Stokes (2012).]”
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Pete’s Comment
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The existence of the DF-21D MRBM may reduce the need for rapid development of China’s conventional and nuclear submarine forces (forces that are believed to be evolving slowly). The disparity of estimates of the DF-21D's range - from 1,450 km to 3,000 km may reflect Chinese political objectives or may be physical facts. 1,450 km may be the range with a heavy warhead (typically 1,500 kg) or for a "bus" of 3 MIRVed warheads. 3,000 km may the range for a light (typically 500 kg) warhead.  
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Pete
 

Brazil's Future SSN - DCNS Assistance - Australian Interest?

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An April 2013 model of Brazil's future SSN known as SN-Br or SNBR see  http://www.shephardmedia.com/news/imps-news/laad-2013-brazil-reveals-submarine-design-details/
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Is this a French designed 2131-R Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) to be fitted in Brazil's future SSN known as SN-Br or SNBR?
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The French company DCNS is providing a package of four conventional subs and one nuclear sub that can be domestically built. Brazil is the first customer for this package and may not be the only customer. Such an industrial solution might be more promising option for Australia than other industrial mixes of all conventional, all nuclear or foreign built.

The conventional diesel-electric subs DCNS is assisting Brazil to build are four slightly larger than usual Scorpenes. The first might be launched in 2015.

The nuclear propelled submarine DCNS is helping Brazil build is dubbed the "SN-Br" or "SNBR" for Submarine-Nuclear-Brazil. It may be the SN-Br will have attributes of DCNS SSNs - perhaps somewhere between 2,500 ton Rubis-Améthyste SSN and the not yet completed 5,000 ton Barracuda SSN. Such tonnage would make it small by 7,000+ ton  US, UK and Russian SSN standards. The SN-Br may feature all horizontal torpedo tubes or some additional VLS
see http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/brazil-france-in-deal-for-ssks-ssn-05217/ The SN-Br might be commissioned in 2023 and enter operation in 2025.

The Brazilian SSN (SN-Br's) Reactor

SN-Br will be powered by a nuclear reactor reportedly developed entirely by Brazil. In contradiction to a wholly indigenous reactor Defense Industry Dailyreports that the SN-Br may be powered by Brazil's part French designed 2131-R Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). But this reactor will be indigenous in terms of it mainly being built in Brazil.

This confusion or ambiguity about the extent of French content in the SN-Br's reactor may be due to French and Brazilian sensitivity about any criticisms that France is proliferating military nuclear technology to Brazil. In a similar vein Russia's extensive assistance in designing and building India's Chakra II reactor has also largely been kept out of the news.

In any case the SN-Br reactor may use less proliferation sensitive Uranium of only 7% and 10% enriched - see http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-import-and-export-behavior/ [more details below] - although this is hard to believe on power to weight and frequency of refuelling grounds.

The four conventional DCNS subs and SN-Br are part of Brazil's program to build a navy that can defend its oil and trade interests in the South Atlantic. The SN-Br will also represent a revival of military uses of nuclear energy - noting that Brazil had discontinued its nuclear weapons program by 1990 http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/brazil/ .
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Australian Interest in DCNS Brazilian Solution?
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For Australia's future submarine project, known as SEA 1000, Australia has several solutions to consider from submarine suppliers. So far this website has mentioned TKMS German HDW, TKMS no longer supplying (?) Swedish Kockums, Spain's Navantia S-80, Japan's Soryu subs and the US Virginia Class.
 
The increasing need for Australia to domestically build submarines given the rundown in Australia's manufacturing industry will work against the already remote possibility that Australia would opt for the Virginia Class SSNs. The unlikelihood of US technology transfer, small production runs of very large (8,000 ton Virginia subs) and Australia's very low level of nuclear know-how are all reasons making the Virginia's unlikely.
 
The DCNS solution of Australia building its own conventional and nuclear propelled subs under DCNS guidance may be the best fit as an industrial solution. While DCNS has no experience making conventional subs in the 4,000 ton range required by Australia DCNS has experience making nuclear subs of that tonnage and greater. Due to DCNS' lack of experience making a conventional and AIP propulsion system for 4,000 tons Australia may need to consider the propulsion system used by Japan's 4,000 ton Soryu class.

BACKGROUND

NTI July 18, 2013 reported http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-capabilities/ The Brazilian Navy's overall strategic goal is to gain an increased sea-denial capability, and it views submarines as a way to achieve that goal. Brazil's USD 8.3BN submarine development program (known as PROSUB) has set a goal of producing 15 diesel-electric submarines and 6 nuclear-powered submarines by 2034. These boats are slated to replace the older Tupi and Tikuna-class submarines. [9]

http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-import-and-export-behavior/
In January 2008 Brazil signed a defense cooperation agreement with France that was followed up with an agreement on submarines in December of the same year. Detailed contracts were finally signed in September 2009, stipulating the terms of the submarine acquisitions and related technology transfer programs. [15] According to these agreements a strategic partnership was formed between the two countries to build four conventional Scorpène-class submarines as well as the hull for Brazil's planned nuclear powered submarine (referred to as 'SNBR'). Brazil is solely responsible for the nuclear parts of the 'SNBR' vessel, and the contract clearly states that "the Brazilian party will not receive assistance from the French party for the design, construction and putting into operation of the on-board nuclear reactor, the installations in the nuclear reactor compartment, and the equipment and facilities whose functions are primarily concerned with the reactor's operation or nuclear safety." [16]

http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/brazil-submarine-import-and-export-behavior/  The fuel (most likely enriched to levels between seven and ten percent U-235) and the reactor will be provided by the Navy's Aramar Technological Center in Ipero and based on the Nuclear-Electric Generation Laboratory (Laboratorio de Geracao Nucleo-Eletrica - LABGENE) and USEXA (a pilot uranium hexafluoride conversion plant) projects. [17] Furthermore, parts for a prototype 48MW pressurized water reactor (RENAP-11) have allegedly already been manufactured. Negotiations on a verification regime for Brazil's naval nuclear fuel involving the IAEA and the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) are ongoing. [18]

The 2009 contract also provides for the formation of a joint venture between DCNS and Brazilian construction company Odebrecht Engenharia. [19] The joint venture covers the construction of a new shipyard and naval base at Sepetiba Bay (near Rio de Janeiro), as well as the production of the submarines themselves. [20] The total cost of the order is expected to be around $8.4 billion over 20 years for the completion of five submarines, the shipbuilding infrastructure, and the weapons system. The conventional submarines are rumored to cost an estimated $600 million each and the nuclear vessel is estimated at $1.5 billion.

[21] The first four submarines will be single-hull, conventional Scorpène-class attack submarines that are slightly modified for greater endurance and time between maintenance. This enables them to meet the operational requirements of patrolling and protecting the expansive Brazilian coast, offshore natural resources and sea-going commerce. [22] Similar to the deal with HDW in the 1980s, the contract with DCNS states that construction on the nose of the first submarine will begin at the DCN shipyard in Cherbourg, France, and will then move to Brazil for completion at Sepetiba Bay.

[23] Assembly and construction of the remaining three conventional submarines, as well as the nuclear-powered variant, will take place entirely in Brazil, though many preassembled parts and components will be brought in from France. [24] Construction on the Scorpènes began in July 2011, with the first submarine slated to be commissioned into the Navy around 2017. [25] According to the construction schedule the last of the conventional submarines is due to be completed by 2025 and the nuclear vessel is expected to be finished by 2023.

[26] Seeking an increased sea-denial capability, the Brazilian Navy plans to procure fifteen diesel-electric submarines and six nuclear-powered submarines to replace the Tupi and Tikuna-class boats when those submarines are retired. The extent of foreign involvement in the development of these new submarines is unclear, but given the Brazilian emphasis on development of an indigenous submarine building capacity it seems likely that a significant amount of construction will take place domestically. [27]

See also Anthony Boadle of Reuters, March 1, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/brazil-defense-submarines-idUSL1N0BT5WK20130301

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Pete

Submariner bravery - HMAS Farncomb 2007

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Eight years before the 2007 event - in June 1999, as part of combat system trials, HMAS Farncomb fired a live Mark 48 Mod 4 torpedo at HMAS Torrens, sinking the decommissioned destroyer.

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The following 2009 article concerns an event in 2007. It illustrates that the rare occasions when some details of submarine operations become public usually occur when a submarine has an accident or some other misfortune. In the following case public disclosure became even a rarer thing - a good news story about genuine bravery of submariners. The link is at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/sailors-washed-off-submarine-as-rescue-kept-quiet/story-e6frg6nf-1225776884379
 

"Sailors washed off submarine as rescue kept quiet     

  • by: Cameron Stewart
  • September 19, 2009 12:00AM  
    A covert intelligence-gathering mission by a navy submarine almost ended in disaster when a giant wave washed five of its crew into the ocean in the middle of the night.
     
    The accident, which was kept quiet by the navy for two years, took place during a deployment to Asia by HMAS Farncomb in March 2007.
     
    However, tragedy was averted when three sailors risked their lives by diving into the swirling ocean to rescue their crewmates in a 90-minute life-and-death struggle against the elements.
     
    Now the navy has announced three of Farncomb's crew will receive bravery awards for their actions -- the first such awards given to submariners in 27 years.
     
    The rogue wave swept the five men off the top of the surfaced submarine as they tried to clear fishing lines from its propeller. In rough seas and worsening weather, they could not make it back to the submarine, so the captain asked for volunteers to rescue them.
     
    Sonar operator Greg Langshaw, engineer Rohan Pugh and cook Steven Rowell put up their hands and, assisted by crewmates, they worked together to drag the five men back to the boat.
     
    The rough seas caused the submarine to heave violently, breaking one of Petty Officer Langshaw's ribs and causing severe bruising to others as the men were hauled back on to the vessel.
     
    Navy chief Vice-Admiral Russ Crane said: "All of Farncomb's personnel who were involved showed significant fortitude, teamwork and courage to ensure that all sailors were returned to the submarine without major injuries and (with) no loss of life."
     
    The accident occurred during a five-month deployment through Southeast Asia and the western Pacific, during which Farncomb gathered intelligence by sailing close to foreign coastlines, listening to communications.
     
    Defence will not say where Farncomb was or what its activities were at the time of the accident.
     
    The story of the Farncomb could easily have been a naval tragedy or even a diplomatic incident.
     
    Instead, it is a tale of courage and heroism from a group of sailors who risked their own lives to save their mates from death.
     
    The navy was uncertain about how best to recognise the bravery of the crew. For more than two years it kept quiet, but last month Chief Petty Officer Pugh, Petty Officer Langshaw and Leading Seaman Rowell were told they would be offered bravery awards.
     
    The navy says the delay was because "due process" needed to be followed. However, The Weekend Australian understands it only nominated the men for the awards this year.
     
    On Thursday, Governor-General Quentin Bryce announced awards for the three men, while several other crew members were awarded commendations from Vice-Admiral Crane.
     
    Chief Petty Officer Pugh says the award, which will be presented next March, was the last thing he expected. "I thought it was great to be recognised for it,' he said. "I think anyone would have done it."
     
    Submariners are rarely given public medals because, like the SAS, much of what they do cannot be revealed.
     
    The navy says the last bravery medals awarded to submariners were in 1982, when two crew aboard HMAS Onslow were decorated for their actions when their submarine filled with toxic fumes.
     
    The Farncomb incident occurred 20 years after two sailors were lost while on an exercise off Sydney Harbour.
     
    They were swept overboard when the Oberon-class submarine HMAS Otama dived while they were still in the conning tower."
     
    Comment
     
    This article can be related to two previous articles on this website:
     
     
    "Australian Oberon Submarine Intelligence Gathering"http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/australian-oberon-submarine.html 
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    Pete

Two US nuclear weapons Flag Officers Fired

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USAF Maj Gen Michael Carey, fired in October 2013, as US Commander of America's ICBMs, for embarrassments in Moscow in July 2013.
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USN Vice Admiral Tim Giardina (center) also fired from job as Deputy Head, US Strategic Command, in October 2013, for gambling habit. At right is Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.
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This website concentrates on submarines, missiles and also nuclear weapons. The security of nuclear weapons is of course crucial. Much concentration is placed on physical security and also personal security of those being hired into nuclear weapons jobs. A US security blind spot appears to exist in the personal  conduct of senior nuclear weapons commanders as the following reveals. 

The now former US Commander of America's land based nuclear missile (ICBM) forces USAF Maj Gen Michael Carey was reported drunk and overly talkative to Russian women for days in Moscow in July 2013. More detail has become public since late 2013 reports, Carey was fired in October 2013. Carey's indiscretions included "Despite those concerns, Carey also socialized into the late hours with a female clerk from a hotel cigar store who likewise raised eyebrows. “A tobacco store lady talking about physics in the wee hours of the morning doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me,”" See http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/report-us-air-force-general-drank-too-much-fraternized-with-foreign-women-in-moscow/2013/12/19/7f3cdba0-68ed-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_story.html


Another nuclear weapons commander, USN Vice Adm Tim Giardina, was also fired in October 2013. "In October, two days before Gen Carey was sacked, US Navy Vice-Adm Tim Giardina was removed as deputy head of US Strategic Command. He was accused of using counterfeit gambling chips of "a significant monetary amount" at an Iowa casino."http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25460660 .

While politicians are not exposed for such things the conduct of such highly trusted officials is dangerous.
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Pete

Ariel Sharon - A Reconsideration

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Following Ariel Sharon's death on January 11, 2014 I have several thoughts

It is easy to paint Sharon as a demon but its harder to place him in context.

Sharon's brutality when in the military was in the context of brutal sectarian and interstate conflict in the Middle East.

A judgement about Sharon is often tied to a judgement of Israel.

Extremists of the right and left are often unintenionally united in their anti-Semitism. They therefore condemn Sharon in life and death.

Southeast Asian States Buying Submarines - Palu Naval Base

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The site of Indonesia's developing Palu Naval Base in Central Sulawesi (Celebes). Significantly Palu Naval Base is close to the oil rich Ambalat sea blockclaimed by Indonesia and Malaysia, just east of East Kalimantan.  
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In April 2013 Indonesian Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Marsetio (second right), at the developing Palu Naval Base, Palu, Central Sulawesi. Indonesia's three new Chang Bogo class HDW 209 submarines and other vessels will be based at Palu.
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Australian Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer  has written an interesting article on the buildup of conventional  subs in Southeast Asia. The article, dated January 3, 2014, is at http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/southeast-asian-states-deploy-conventional-submarines/

"Southeast Asian States Deploy Conventional Submarines

On December 31, Vietnamese media reported the delivery of the first Russian Project 636 Varshavyanka-class (enhanced Kilo) conventional submarine to Cam Ranh Bay. The sub was transported from the port of St. Petersburg on the heavy lift vessel Rolldock Sea.
The submarine was accompanied by experts from Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg who will undertake final work before the formal handover ceremonies. The submarine will be named HQ 182 Hanoi. The last of the remaining five Project 636 Varshavyanka-class submarines is expected to be delivered by 2016.
In late November, during the visit of Vietnam’s party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong to India, it was announced that India would provide training for up to 500 submarines as part of its defense cooperation program with Vietnam. Training will be conducted at the Indian Navy’s modern submarine training center INS Satavahana in Visakhapatnam. The Indian Navy has operated Russian Kilo-class submarines since the mid-1980s.
The arrival of HQ 182 Hanoi provides a timely reminder that regional navies are embarking on naval modernization programs that increasingly include the acquisition of conventional submarines.
As long ago as 1967 Indonesia became one of the first Southeast Asian countries to acquire an undersea capability when it took delivery of a batch of Soviet Whiskey-class submarines. These were later replaced in 1978 by two West German diesel submarines.
In 2012 Indonesia’s Defense Ministry announced it was planning to expand its submarine fleet to twelve by 2020. Twelve is the minimum number of submarines required to cover strategic choke points or maritime entry passages into the  archipelago.
At present Indonesia has an order for three ["Chang Bogo" class] HDW 209 submarines that are being built in South Korea by Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering in cooperation with PT PAL Indonesia. The U-209s are expected to be delivered between 2015 and 2016.
In addition, Indonesia is mulling two options. The first option is to buy and modify used Russian Kilo-class submarines. An Indonesian technical team headed by Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Marsetio will visit Russia this month to inspect the submarines and associated weaponry. It will report on the cost and feasibility of this option.
Indonesian sources report that the Kilo-option is attractive because the submarine can be armed with either the supersonic Yakhont or Klub-S cruise missiles. The latter can be fired underwater and strike surface targets up to 400 kilometers away.
Indonesia’s second option is to purchase new submarines from South Korea. This option is attractive because the new submarines are compatible with existing port infrastructure.
Press reports indicate that Indonesia’s new submarines will be berthed at the recently built Palu Naval Base in Central Sulawesi. These submarines would be able to operate in the deep waters around Indonesia’s eastern islands.
In late November Singapore announced that it had signed a contract for the purchase of two new Type 218SG conventional submarines from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems in Germany. The sales contract included provisions for servicing and crew training in Germany.
Singapore’s submarines will be outfitted with the Air Independent Propulsion system and are expected to be delivered by 2020. The new submarines will replace four older Challenger-class submarines and will join the two refurbished Archer-class (formerly Swedish Västergötland-class) submarines to form Singapore’s undersea fleet.
Malaysia acquired two two Scorpène-class submarines from France following a contract signed in 2002. The two [Scorpene submarines], RMN Tunku Abdul Rahman and RMN Tun Abdul Razak  entered service in 2007 and 2009, respectively. They are based at Sepanggar, Sabah. In May 2012 Malaysia indicated that any further submarine acquisitions would depend on the availability of funding. That year Malaysia signed a contract for the purchase of a Submarine Escape and Rescue Service vessel to be built in Singapore.
In June 2013, Myanmar Army Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing entered into discussions with Russian officials for the purchase of two-Kilo class submarines. That same month it was reported that twenty officers and ratings began basic submarine familiarization and training in Pakistan at its Submarine Training Center PNS Bahadur. These two developments underscore reports that Myanmar intends to crease a submarine force by 2015.
In April 2011 Thailand entered the market for the purchase of two to six decommissioned German Type 206A diesel submarines for $220 million. Weighing in at 500 tonnes submerged displacement, they are among the world’s smallest attack submarines. A change of government in July 2011 and internal differences between the new Defense Minister and the Navy resulted in the expiration of Thailand’s options and the shelving of this project.
In October 2013 it was reported that the Royal Thai Navy will include the purchase of three submarines as part of its next ten-year procurement process. Meanwhile, Thailand has commenced construction of facilities for a submarine training center and base at the Sattahip Naval Base in Chon Buri. This base is expected to be completed in March this year and will be equipped with a Submarine Command Team Trainer.
Last year the Royal Thai Navy sent eighteen officers for a thirty-two week submarine training course in Germany and another ten officers for an eight-week training course in South Korea.
In the early years of the Aquino Administration in the Philippines, submarines were reportedly included on a Department of National Defense “wish list” for procurement under an armed forces modernization program. The acquisition of submarines appears has been quietly dropped.
Within the next five years to a decade, Southeast Asian waters, and the South China Sea in particular, will witness a marked rise in the deployment of conventional submarines by regional states. This will make the South China Sea even more congested.
The acquisition of submarine forces will add a fourth dimension to regional war-fighting capabilities – air, land, sea and sub-surface. Submarines will be able to engage in reconnaissance and intelligence gathering, mine laying, anti-ship warfare and long-range strikes.
There appears to have been very little discussion by naval chiefs among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) about the implications of this development. At the most basic level, few of the ASEAN countries are equipped to assist one of their submarines in distress. Singapore and Malaysia, however, are the exceptions. In late 2008 Singapore launched the MV Swift Rescue, a submarine support vessel equipped with two Deep Search and Rescue vessels.
Singapore has been at the forefront in promoting cooperation in submarine rescue among regional navies in the event of a misadventure. Agreements have been signed with Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam."
BACKGROUND

Concerning Palu Naval Base sited close to the oil rich Ambalat sea block, off East Kalimantan, claimed by Indonesia and by Malaysia, see the 2009 article Indonesia Gets Apology From Malaysian Navy Over Latest Ambalat Flare Up at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2009/06/indonesia-gets-apology-from-malaysian.html.
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Pete

Good reasons for fighters being as pricey as they are.

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One of Indonesia's few Su-30 Flankers

Robert Farley's insights in http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/why-do-fighter-aircraft-cost-so-much/ of January 11, 2014 are interesting.  for Part of his article includes:

"An under-mentioned point in defense procurement debates is that the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft is often less about national defense than national identity. Both civilian and military leaders tend to resent the idea that neighbors and rivals will own and operate more capable, advanced, and expensive aircraft. Moreover, states don’t simply buy advanced fighters “off the shelf,” as advanced aircraft have historically required long term deals for training, maintenance, and spare parts. Buying a fighter means buying a political relationship."

PETE's COMMENT

This partly explains why Indonesia has been buying numbers of Su-27 and Su-30 Flankers, too small to be operationally efficient. Rather than efficiency, national prestige, Indonesian Air Force prestige and monetary commissions for some, may be influential factors.

Pete

LIDAR an anti-submarine warfare sensor

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The LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) concept - a rough representation. (diagram courtesy of http://www.seos-project.eu/modules/laser-rs/laser-rs-c07-s01-p01.html )
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LIDAR could be used with other sensors, eg. magnetic and acoustic.
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As part of this websites exploration of anti-submarine technologies the following is a tiny part of:

Birkeland, John Olav (November 2009) The potential of LIDAR as an antisubmarine warfare sensor. University of Glasgow, Master of Philosophy (Research) thesis

LIDAR is short for LIght Detection And Ranging

Only quoting the thesis Abstract (from http://theses.gla.ac.uk/1252/ ):

Abstract
Traditionally, antisubmarine warfare (ASW) has been dominated by acoustic sensors, active and passive. Ending the Cold War, the ASW forces have refocused towards a theatre of war in the littorals, and the traditional acoustic sensors do not perform very well in such an environment. The sensors are working much closer to the surface, and there is a lot more surface traffic to disturb the acoustic environment. Environmental and topographic factors also play a major role. Removing or significantly reducing the acoustic capability, one forces the ASW forces to look to other technologies and sensors to compliment or replace the acoustic ones. This is where the interest of LIDAR as an aerial ASW sensor comes into play. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate “the potential for using LIDAR technology for aerial ASW on Norwegian ASW platforms”. In addition to this main research question, the history of LIDAR has been researched, in order to find historical and existing LIDAR projects for ASW purposes. 
Antisubmarine warfare is a complicated business, but speed of reaction, flexibility to change operating areas quickly and efficiently, and the ability to deploy sophisticated buoys are all in the advantage to the aerial ASW platform. But as the submarines get quieter and quieter, new means of detection must be found to cover the complicated upper layers of the water column. 
The signal components of LIDAR and the increasing processing capability have made LIDAR technology somewhat mature, but limitations such as scattering and attenuation of light in water are severely hampering. 
After a decline in ASW focus after the Cold War, the Western world is finding itself in a littoral submarine threat scenario, and do not have the sensors to sufficiently meet this threat. Several LIDAR programs have been initiated and carried through, but most have been directed towards finding and neutralizing mines. Lately, a new interest of applying LIDAR-technology in the search for submarines has risen. But LIDAR itself does not seem to be able to cover the upper layers of the water column consistently enough, and other technologies might be able to compliment LIDAR in a multi-sensor solution. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Hyperspectral Imagery seem to be the most applicable of these. A recommendation is given to military commanders to pursue a multi-sensor pod for several areas of use by Maritime Patrol Aircraft and military helicopters.

Iranian Nuclear Program - Iranian Googling and Amateur Metadata

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 This website's information on the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) reflects Iran's interest in nuclear weapons research. The AEOI is active in many university institutes, cities and isolated sites in Iran, particularly in Tehran and Isfahan (aka Esfahan).

The Isfahan University of Technology (IUT) is closely related to AEOI. IUT includes the Nuclear Technology Center (INTC) (run by the AEOI) with an estimated 3,000 scientists - see  http://www.nti.org/facilities/237/ . INTC has many functions including Uranium enrichment. INTC operates three small nuclear research reactors supplied by China.

Iranian Google searches detected on this website include:

- November 19, 2006 (IP 217.218.64.202) Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Tehran, conducted a Google search with key words "nuclear explosion simulation".

- March 4, 2007 (IP 213.176.127.82) from - "Iranian Research Organization" also conducted a Google search with key words "simulation underground nuclear explosion".

- September 9, 2007 (IP 217.218.64.202) AEOI, Tehran Google searched for information on "nuclear weapon effects computer".

- October 24, 2007 (IP 217.218.64.202) AEOI, Tehran, Googled for information on "Nuclear weapon effects computer".

- November 14, 2007 (IP 217.218.64.202) AEOI, Tehran Googled for information on "underground nuclear explosion simulation"

- November 22, 2007 (IP 217.219.18.13) Isfahan (aka Esfahan) University of Technology, Tehran campus, reading information on this blog concerning Indian and Pakistani nuclear missiles.

Then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled a supercomputer at Isfahan University of Technology in 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isfahan_University_of_Technology#Research_.26_Facilities . A supercomputer has many uses including nuclear explosion simulation. Such simulations demand the speed and capacity of a supercomputer. By 2011-2012 the Iranians are likely to have conducted nuclear explosion simulations using the supercomputer.

PETE'S COMMENT
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As at January 2014 Iran is at or near breakout status - with the three components being:

- substantial stocks of semi-enriched uranium (LEU or MEU), which could become bomb grade (90+%) HEU within a couple of months using Iran's thousands of centrifuges and possible hidden laser enrichment capability.

- delivery means - in the form of Sejjil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejjil solid fuel IRBM and the  Shahab series liquid fueled IRBMs, and

- enough nuclear device plans and components acquired from Pakistan's A. Q. Khan network to have constructed crude fission devices (minus the HEU and/or Plutonium explosive) around 8 years ago.


The Saudis using their own info and that shared by Israel and the US, would be very aware of Iran's nuclear status. If Iran moved from breakout to fully assembled warheads on missiles the Saudis would probably rely on the US and Israel to strike Iran.

Meanwhile the Saudis might complete there own nuclear capability mainly by purchasing it in cash and oil from Pakistan, China more quietly from the US and perhaps even from Israel. The Saudis have possessed now obsolete Chinese made CSS-2 IRBMs since around the 1987.

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Pete

Australia's Future Submarine Selection - S-80 in trouble.

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From UK Daily Mail article"Too heavy: The [S-80 lead vessel] Isaac Peral, a new, Spanish-designed submarine is more than 70 tons too heavy, and officials fear if it goes out to sea, it will not be able to surface. Officials are pictured next to the engine of the vessel last November [2012]" also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navantia#Controversies
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[See UK Daily Mail article of June 6, 2013, "Spain's £1.75billion submarine programme is torpedoed after realising near-complete vessel is 70 tonnes too heavy because engineer put decimal point in the wrong place" at  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336953/Spains-1-75bn-submarine-programme-torpedoed-realising-near-complete-vessel-70-tonnes-heavy.html

"A £1.75billion Spanish submarine project has run aground after officials realised that the vessel is more than 70 tonnes too heavy - because an engineer put a decimal point in the wrong place.


A former Spanish official has described the mistake, which has led to fears that the submarine might not resurface if sent to sea, as 'fatal'.

The [S-80 lead vessel] Isaac Peral, the first in a new class of diesel electric submarines, was almost complete when the problem was noticed."]

Australian Defence Minister David Johnston may not announce which submarine makers' HDW, DCNS or Navantia have been selected to advance to the next round of Australia's Future Submarine SEA 1000 selection process. Builders of Korea's projected KSS-III (using some HDW technology) and Japan's current Soryu Class propulsion system might be outside contenders. 

SEA 1000's official parameters suggest that the following are prime considerations: Australian Federal Government money for South Australia for manufacturing industry development; business; union; jobs; and electoral interests . SEA 1000's expected  in-service deadline is now apparently around 2035.

The the overwelming majority of the site-meter visits (from Australian entities, US defence companies and European entities) to this gentleseas website have been "Googling""S-80" or "Navantia" and not HDW 214, HDW 216 (see the 216 on navyrecognition.com)  or Scorpene. 

Navantia's solid performance in being the major contractor for Australia's under construction AWDs and LHDs may be allowing Navantia strong influence over Australia SEA 1000 selection process. Navantia may be considered a safe vender but its lack of experience in completing a submarine itself of ever exporting a submarine itself may be significant problems. 

Navantia was involved with DCNS in building Agostas and Scorpenes some years ago but Navantia did not build them by itself. http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/scorpene/

HDW and DCNS are the firms with the greatest export experience and deepest knowledge base in conventional subs. HDW and DCNS should therefore be the front-runners in Australia S-80 future submarine selection. Inter-operability with the US is important hence its is highly desirable that these firms would be permitted by the US to incorporate the US SSN equivalent combat system and weapons fit.

The Navantia S-80 apparently incorporates the US combat system-weapons fit. However the S-80 falls down in not being completed and not yet exported. As indicated above the S-80 has been significantly delayed due to basic design faults.  The S-80 is reportedly 70 tonnes overweight - hence suffering major balance problems - leading to a delayed in-service of 2017 - and cost overruns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navantia#Controversies.


The 70 tonne-balance error may be an outcome of inexperience or undue haste in developing and building the S-80.

Navantia's involvement with DCNS in Scorpene building apparently ended in 2010. Hence pre-2010 perceptions in Australia's Defence Department that Navantia was a competitive contender in SEA 1000 now may not be as valid.

Navantia apparently has never completed a submarine by itself or exported a sub by itself. As things stand this may make Navantia a higher risk sub maker than Kockums was in the 1980s?

Note that in the 1980s Kockums was chosen over the more proven HDW at the last minute - and the rest is history. Now we have never completed a sub by itself Navantia.

If Navantia develops a demonstrably efficient S-80 and gets some export orders for subs experience before 2025 then it might be less high risk and less expensive.
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Pete
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