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US Navy's Seaweb Undersea Warfare Network

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(Diagram courtesy of the US Navy Undersea Warfare magazine http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_30/art.html )

(Seaweb has many US government sponsors and foreign military connections. Official sponsors are above. Seaweb would also require a vast amount of data memory and processing power from the appropriate agency. Diagram sourced from http://www.docstoc.com/docs/146099687/Seaweb )

What ever happened to the wireline SOSUS networks of the Cold War used to detect Russian submarines? They've been replaced by the much more extensive "Seaweb" intranet based wireless network with a vast range of communications and surveillance capabilities. US and perhaps foreign submarines may well provide input into and communicate via the Seaweb (or perhaps another internal name like "Advanced Undersea Warfare Systems (AUWS)" ) network. A highly detailed powerpoint presentation of Seaweb’s capabilities is here .

Barbara Honegger republished this US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Monterey, California article on May 16, 2014 article (with some updates from an earlier 2010 NPS article). The involvement of America’s four other Anglo allies under The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP), a five-nation defense R&D collaboration, is mentioned (at the bottom of the article). The article is at http://www.nps.edu/About/News/NPS-Pioneers-Seaweb-Underwater-Sensor-Networks.html.

"NPS Pioneers “Seaweb” Underwater Sensor Networks"

Article By: Barbara Honegger
May 16, 2014

"The Naval Postgraduate School is on the cutting edge of through-water acoustic communications technology enabling distributed autonomous ocean sensors to operate as an underwater wireless wide-area network.

Through a decade of engineering experiments and sea trials in diverse maritime environments, NPS and its research partners have advanced the “Seaweb” system to a point where it now routinely demonstrates capability for maritime surveillance, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), oceanographic sampling, instrument remote-control, underwater navigation, and submarine communications at speed and depth.

“Seaweb is a realization of FORCEnet in the undersea battlespace,” said the program’s Principal Investigator and Physics Research Professor Joseph Rice.

The system uses through-water acoustic modems to interconnect a scalable quantity of underwater network nodes, linking them to a gateway node typically located at the sea surface. The gateway node is equipped with some form of radio modem permitting bidirectional real-time digital communications between the underwater Seaweb domain and distant command centers.

“Seaweb is the product of interdisciplinary R&D [research and development] involving underwater acoustic propagation, sonar systems engineering, transducer design, digital communications, signal processing, computer networking and operations research,” explained Rice, an electrical engineer. “Our original goal was to create a network of distributed sensors for detecting quiet submerged submarines in littoral waters where traditional ASW surveillance is challenged by complex sound propagation and high noise. But as Seaweb technology developed, its broader overarching value became evident.” 

For example, in a 2001 Fleet Battle Experiment, a U.S. fast-attack submarine serving as a cooperative target for Seaweb ASW sensors was itself equipped as a Seaweb node. Thus instrumented, the submarine was able to access the deployed autonomous nodes as off-board sensors, and while transiting at speed and depth was also able to communicate through Seaweb with the command center and even with a collaborative maritime patrol aircraft. 

“In effect, the Seaweb network served as a cellular communications and sensor infrastructure for the submarine,” Rice said.
  
According to Rice, a major advantage of an undersea wireless network is the flexibility it affords mission planners and theater commanders to appropriately match resources to the environment and mission at hand. For example, fixed sensor nodes can be combined with mobile Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) nodes, which has been demonstrated in a number of Seaweb experiments. “The UUV can serve the fixed nodes as their deployment platform, their gateway node, or as a mule for delivering and recovering large volumes of data,” Rice noted. “In turn, the fixed network can support UUV command, control, communications and navigation.” 

A further example of heterogeneous Seaweb networks is the combination of surveillance sensor nodes with METOC sensor nodes to improve the performance and relevance of both. The wireless architecture means that ASW sensors can be sparsely distributed to cover a wide area or densely distributed to create a tripwire or to monitor a chokepoint. In a current international project, Seaweb is interconnecting undersea sensors from NATO nations as a single integrated network.
 
“In short, Seaweb integrates undersea warfare systems across missions, platforms, systems and nations,” Rice said. 
                                                                                      
Major attributes of Seaweb’s architecture are its low cost, its rapid deployability from a variety of platforms, and its ability to autonomously self-configure into an optimal network.  Through a build-test-build spiral engineering process and rigorous sea testing of diverse configurations of underwater sensors and Seaweb modems, the effort is honing the blueprint for an environmentally adaptive and energy efficient, expendable and cost-effective, bi-directional wide-area-coverage undersea communications infrastructure.
   
“Seaweb has now been exercised in over 50 sea trials,” Rice noted. “The system has proven to be effective in shallow waters such as the Intracoastal Waterway and in waters up to 300 meters deep off the coasts of Nova Scotia, San Diego, Long Island and Florida. It has been demonstrated in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, in Norwegian fjords, and under the Arctic ice shelf.” 

The experimental method involves stressing the network to the point of failure as a means of identifying and eliminating weaknesses. Recent multi-agency trials have engaged Seaweb at the front end of the “observe, orient, decide, act” (OODA) loop, where the networked in situ sensors enhance the commander’s maritime domain awareness and complement remote sensing assets.

Last year, Rice and his students completed a two-part “Bayweb 2009” experiment using Seaweb’s undersea communications technologies in San Francisco Bay.  The goals were to demonstrate the network architecture and test system performance, while measuring the strong currents around Angel Island using networked current sensors placed near the seabed and sharing these data with oceanographers. Partnering with NPS in Bayweb were the University of California, Berkeley; University of California, Davis; San Francisco State University; the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific; the Office of Naval Research; and the U.S. Coast Guard.

“Due to the high levels of shipping and wind noise and flow noise from currents up to four knots, San Francisco Bay presented a challenging test environment and a learning opportunity for our students,” Rice said.

Some of Rice’s students are also working on a new “Deep Seaweb” project adapting the littoral Seaweb network to the deep ocean.
  
“It’s of utmost importance to the Navy to maintain submarine communications, but all existing communication methods are severely limited without compromising either speed or depth, or both,” said Operations Analysis student and submariner Lt. Andrew Hendricksen. “Once deployed, Deep Seaweb is the one option that allows stealthy, two-way submarine communications while maintaining both depth and speed. A number of sea trials have proven Seaweb works as a detection network, which can be expanded for two-way communications with undersea assets – submarines and UUVs – in the deep ocean.  My thesis research is developing an algorithm that can show the best places to put it to get the coverage you want to achieve the purposes you want for sub detection, sub communications, tsunami warning, etc.”
 
Another student, Lt. Jeremy Biediger, is exploring the advantages of deploying Deep Seaweb hydrophones in deep ocean trenches to passively detect quiet diesel submarines, stealthy semi-submersibles carrying contraband and surface vessels. 

“The main advantages of deploying Deep Seaweb networked acoustic sensors along deep ocean trenches for barrier or tripwire coverage of submarines and of surface and semi-submersible vessels are reduced ambient noise and thus relatively high signal-to-noise ratio,” explained Biediger.  

“It’s great working with Professor Rice because he’s a research professor who’s really involved with the ASW community and the system commands, so you get to meet and work with many of the top people in those communities,” Biediger added.  “What I learned will be of great benefit to my future career as an engineering duty officer, especially on the acoustics side, as very few universities have acoustics programs and the Naval Postgraduate School is unique in acoustics with naval applications.” 

“Future undersea sensor grids will enable navigation of submarines and autonomous underwater vehicles,” Rice added.  “Seaweb technology could also support submarine communications, networked torpedo connectivity for ASW engagement from launch platforms at long standoff, communication among unmanned underwater vehicles in mine-countermeasure operations, and any undersea warfare system that requires data telemetry for command and control.”

“A goal is for Seaweb technology to support the operational community,” Rice stressed.  “In the shorter term, next year we’ll be testing against a cooperative diesel-electric submarine in the Mediterranean Sea in preparation for NOBLE MANTA 2012, the annual NATO antisubmarine warfare exercise.”  

The NPS Seaweb program’s primary sponsor is the Office of Naval Research, with additional support from the Office of the Secretary of Defense. NPS Seaweb research collaborators for 2010 include SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific; the University of Texas Applied Research Laboratories; the NATO Undersea Research Centre; Canada’s Defense Research and Development Center Atlantic; the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment; The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP), a five-nation defense R&D collaboration involving Canada, Australia, New Zealand the United Kingdom, and the U.S; and Teledyne Benthos, Inc.

For more information about the NPS Seaweb program, see http://www.nps.edu/Academics/GSEAS/Physics/faculty.html#jrice. "

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Pete

More detail: Swedish raid on Kockums, Malmo on April 8, 2014

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A Stirling engine retrofitted to Swedish submarine HMS Näcken. Photo courtesy of Kockums http://kockums.se/en/products-services/submarines/stirling-aip-system/stirling-aip-conversion/.
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It appears the Swedish government in part raided the TKMS-Kockums' Malmo site out of concern that Swedish designed Stirling engine secrets were not being held securely enough. The Local ("Sweden's news in English") May 19, 2014 reports http://www.thelocal.se/20140519/swedes-took-engine-in-raid-on-german-sub-makers .


"Swedes 'took engine' in German sub site raid

UPDATED [May 19, 2014]: New details have emerged about why the Swedish military raided the Malmö premises of German defence giant Thyssen Krupp [on April 8, 2014]. A military expert tells The Local that submarines have become a "major concern" in Sweden since unrest in Ukraine.
UPDATED: New details have emerged about why the Swedish military raided the Malmö premises of German defence giant Thyssen Krupp last month. A military expert tells The Local that submarines have become a "major concern" in Sweden since unrest in Ukraine.

Tensions between Sweden and the German company Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS) took a surprising turn in April when the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) carried out a raid on the Malmö shipyard belonging to Kockums, Thyssen Krupp's Swedish subsidiary.

It was initially unknown what exactly the administration's soldiers got away with, but one military expert said the entire incident was "very unusual". Kockums' head of security was relieved of his duties on the same day.
An FMV spokeswoman said soon after that the raid was "a routine transportation of defence material".

On Monday, the Dagens Nyheter newspaper (DN) revealed that FMV had removed parts of the Stirling submarine engine in a move that created a storm of confusion and irritation among Kockums' heads. The information came via an inside source that DN said "had a strong connection to the proceedings".

On the day of the raid, April 8th [2014], two trucks pulled into the Kockums site in Malmö with the backup of the Swedish military. They promptly loaded their trucks, with what is believed to be the engine parts, and took them away.

[Coincidence or not? I published my article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/stirling-aip-on-chinese-type-041-yuan.htmlIntellectual Property, Stirling AIP on Chinese Type 041 Yuan Submarine at 5.31pm, April 8, 2014 Eastern Australian time. In Sweden that was at 9.31am, April 8, 2014. Was the Swedish raid on TKMS-Kockums in Malmo a few hours after my article?]

The source said that the Kockums' chairman had known about the FMV plans in advance but "was not at all prepared that they would go this far".

The raid was prompted, the source added, by fears that information about the engine could end up in the wrong hands after talks of a potential submarine deal came to an end.  
   
Gunnar Hult, a professor at Sweden's National Defence College who specializes in military technology, said that the information in DN was in line with what he had heard.

"Submarines in Sweden are much more important recently considering events in Ukraine and the fact that there's a lot more Russian action in the Baltic Sea vicinty," he told The Local on Monday.

"Whereas in the nineties after the fall of the Soviet Union, people thought that maybe we don't need as many submarines as we've had in the past. This has changed dramatically."

The defence minister, he pointed out, has announced plans to build a third new submarine and several extra Gripen jets.

"I think there's a major concern in the Swedish population about all this. But I still agree with the politicians, it would be extremely unlikely to see Russian action against Sweden. If they do anything, it's much more likely to be in Ukraine or the Baltic states."

DN reported that the raid was part of a move to bring the engine parts to a secret location where both parties could go over the information together and clarify ownership.

The material is now reported to be stored in the secure location, which is accessible to both parties."

Pete

Increasing Australian Interest in Japan's Soryu Submarine

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Soryu class submarine being launched. Above submarine is the SS-502, the Unryu or Cloud Dragon.
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A boppy commissioning(?) of Soryu SS-505, the Zuiryu or Auspicious Dragon. The video conveys some idea of the size of this submarine.

The following article from Reuters via The Maritime Executive of May 28, 2014 http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/Submarine-Deal-Could-Rattle-China-2014-05-28/is in line with my own article Australian interest in Japan SoryuSubmarine's Propulsion System[January 30, 2014 posted on Australia by the Indian Ocean] when I wrote:

“If Australia were to consider buying some features of Japanese submarines - such as the Soryu's propulsion system - Australia would need to be confident Japan could make this politically and economically possible [including Japan's ability to integrate the propulsion system with submarine hulls and electronic suites designed by Australian, European and US submarine arms companies]. To date Japan has never exported a major weapons system …Japan's self-imposed ban on arms exports began in 1967.” 

In the Comments section below Harish commented: "Let us say Japan did sell the Soryu drive-train or the entire package of the Soryu to Australia wouldn't that be breaking Kockums technology deal with Kawasaki Heavy Industries as they are the original source. I believe Kawasaki merely license produces these engines, is there something missing in that deal."

My comment is: I think Harish is correct that part of Soryu's drive-train (that is the Stirling engine AIP) is under license from Kockums. I'm unaware whether other portions of the Soryu drive-train are licensed to Kockums? This licencing matter might not be an issue if TKMS-HDW legally owns Kockums. This is because I believe TKMS-HDW has the strongest chance of winning an Australian tender to build the future submarine. The result may be a development of the HDW 218SG - also stemming from the paper HDW 216 design. 

However the Swedish Government might still legally dispute a Stirling engine or complete drive-train technology sale by claiming that these are Swedish inventions. 

The Maritime Executive article:


May 28, 2014

Submarine Deal Could Rattle China



Japan is considering selling submarine technology to Australia - perhaps even a fleet of fully engineered, stealthy vessels, according to Japanese officials. Sources on both sides say the discussions so far have encouraged a willingness to speed up talks.


Any agreement would take months to negotiate and remains far from certain, but even a deal for Japan to supply technology would likely run to billions of dollars and represent a major portion of Australia's overall $37 billion submarine programme.


It would also be bound to turn heads in China.


Experts say a Japan-Australia deal would send a signal to Asia's emerging superpower of Japan's willingness, under nationalist Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to export arms to a region wary of China's growing naval strength, especially its pursuit of territorial claims in the East and South China seas.


A deal would also help connect Japanese arms-makers like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries to the world market for big, sophisticated weaponry, a goal Abe sees as consistent with Japanese security.


Abe has eased decades-old restrictions on Japan's military exports and is looking to give its military a freer hand in conflicts by changing the interpretation of a pacifist constitution that dates back to Japan's defeat in World War Two.


"There's a clear danger that aligning ourselves closely with Japan on a technology as sensitive as submarine technology would be read in China as a significant tightening in what they fear is a drift towards a Japan-Australia alliance," said Hugh White, a professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University. "It would be a gamble by Australia on where Japan is going to be 30 years from now."


Australia's proposed fleet of submarines is at the core of its long-term defence strategy. Although Canberra will not begin replacing its Collins-class vessels until the 2030s, the design work could take a decade or more and each submarine could take about five years to build, according to industry analysts.


A final decision on the type and number of submarines Australia will build is expected to be made after a review due in March 2015.


Australian officials have expressed an interest in the silent-running diesel-electric propulsion systems used in Japan's Soryu diesel submarines, built by Mitsubishi Heavy and Kawasaki Heavy. Those vessels would give Australia a naval force that could reach deep into the Indian Ocean.


More recently, Japanese military officials and lawmakers with an interest in defence policy have signalled a willingness to consider supplying a full version of the highly regarded Soryu to Australia if certain conditions can be met. These would include concluding a framework agreement on security policy with Canberra that would lock future Australian governments into an alliance with Japan, the officials said.


Mitsubishi Heavy had no comment. Kawasaki Heavy said it had not been approached about any proposal regarding the Soryu and could not comment.


Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has said he favors boosting strategic cooperation with Japan. For their part, Australia's military planners are similarly enthusiastic about cooperation as a means of hedging against an over-reliance on the United States, people with knowledge of their thinking said.


ULTRA-QUIET


The Soryu's ultra-quiet drivetrain could avoid a problem that makes Australia's six current submarines prone to detection, said sources with knowledge of the discussions in Australia.


The Australian government has committed to building the A$40 billion ($37 billion) replacement for its Collins-class submarines at home. However, a government-commissioned report from U.S.-based think-tank Rand Corp found that Australia lacked enough engineers to design and build a vessel it said would be as complex as a space shuttle.


"The likely practical approach is that Australia would partner with a foreign partner company and government," the report published last year said.


Australian Defence Minister David Johnston met his Japanese counterpart, Itsunori Onodera, in Perth recently and the pair meet again in June in Tokyo along with foreign ministers. Abe will follow up with a trip to Australia in July, one of the sources in Tokyo said.


Johnston said this month he believed the Soryu was the best conventional submarine in the world. He has also said he expects Japan and Australia will work together on research in marine hydrodynamics as an initial area of cooperation while working toward a "framework agreement" on military technology.


It is possible that Australia could purchase submarine hulls from Germany or Sweden and then opt to buy Japanese drivetrains for the vessels, although that would add a layer of complexity and additional cost, officials said.


Participants in a joint-development deal could also include Britain's BAE Systems and state-owned Australian Submarine Corp, which maintains the nation's current fleet.


Australian Submarine Corp's head of strategy and communications, Sean Costello, said the ship-builder had hosted Japanese government officials at its shipyards in March 2013 but no technical discussions had yet taken place.


BAE spokesman Mark Ritson said the British firm was keen to play a major role in Australia's submarine programme and was in regular contact with the Australian government.


In Japan, any submarine supply deal could face roadblocks.


Some senior officials in Japan's maritime self-defence forces are wary of any joint development that could risk a leak of sensitive information about the identifying "signature" of Japanese submarines, one official in Tokyo said.


However, exports would enable Japanese arms-makers to spread their costs over a bigger production base, making them more efficient. At the same time, Abe has pressed for a loosening of legal limits on Japan's military, including an end to a ban on helping allies under attack - though opinion polls show the Japanese public is divided on Abe's security policies.


The Soryu submarines have a range of more than 11,000 km (6,800 miles) and come armed with Harpoon missiles designed to hit enemy ships operating over the horizon. The export or transfer of such lethal technology would be a first in Japan and could face political opposition.


"It's impossible for us to move quickly on this. It has to be a gradual cooperation," one Japanese official with knowledge of the discussions said. (US$1 = 1.0815 Australian dollars). [from] Reuters 2014"

Pete

Stevie Nicks still kicking, some major songs.

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Stephanie Lynn "Stevie" Nicks (born 1948) still going. Photo circa 1976. During her time in Fleetwood Mac (where she sings the three songs below) and in her extensive solo career Stevie has sold over 140 million albums. She strikes a haunting pose - a real artist.
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Stevie interviewed at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport, 1978.

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Rhiannon (above) and Dreams (below) sung around 1977




Stevie still has charisma, Landslide, 1997.


Pete

German Diesel Engines (and AIP?) for Chinese Submarines

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Chinese submarines are becoming harder to detect. in part, due to low acoustic signatures of German supplied diesel engines on China's Song and Yuan class submarines.

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Conventional submarines built by Russia and (more strategically important to Australia) China are powered by German supplied submarine diesel engines. Also Germany has helped China set up a diesel engine factories. It is not known the extent to which Germany has consciously or unconsciously supplied details of submarine AIP engines which need to interact operationally with the diesels. Reportedly China's Yuan submarines use Stirling AIP engines.

This commonality in submarine diesels and possibly AIP may be of major intelligence value to China. This is because China can construct test stands and computer simulations of likely submarine acoustic signatures produced by the diesels and AIP that might be fitted to Australia's future submarines. If China has similar or the same diesel engines fitted China may be able to run a wide range of useful tests under different hydrographic-ocean conditions (depth, temperature, salinity and currents of water etc) to discern how best to detect Australian submarines, estimating their range and direction of movement. 

However if Australia is able to buy Japanese built and modified Soryu engines for its future submarines this may be a way to help avoid Chinese comparative testing of China's German supplied diesels and perhaps AIP.

The following article is a bit long so I've bolded Germany, MTU and Man Diesel & Turbo for easier reading.

 David Lague for Reuters (Indian edition) December 20, 2013, reports http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/breakout-submarines-special-report-pix-g-idINL4N0JJ0FM20131219 :

"CORRECTED-SPECIAL REPORT-Chinese military's secret to success: European engineering - 

(Fixes the paragraph about MTU promotional brochures, to clarify the phrase "310,000 hours in operation," by removing the word "each.")

* Much of China's naval fleet powered by European diesel engines

* EU arms embargo doesn't cover dual-use technology

* Lucrative trade in dual-use components from Europe

* Germany's MTU supplies state-of-art engines for China's submarines

* China's whisper-quiet submarines pose biggest threat to adversaries


HONG KONG, Dec 19 (Reuters) - If the People's Liberation Army went to war tomorrow, it would field an arsenal bristling with hardware from some of America's closest allies: Germany, France and Britain.
Most of China's advanced surface warships are powered by German and French-designed diesel engines. Chinese destroyers have French sonar, anti-submarine-warfare helicopters and surface-to-air missiles.
Above the battlefield, British jet engines drive PLA fighter bombers and anti-ship strike aircraft. The latest Chinese surveillance aircraft are fitted with British airborne early warning radars. Some of China's best attack and transport helicopters rely on designs from Eurocopter, a subsidiary of pan-European aerospace and defense giant EADS.
But perhaps the most strategic item obtained by China on its European shopping spree is below the waterline: the German-engineered diesels inside its submarines.
Emulating the rising powers of last century - Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union - China is building a powerful submarine fleet, including domestically built Song [see German MTU diesel engines (16V396 units rather than the 12V493 units originally considered),] and Yuan-class  boats. The beating hearts of these subs are state-of-the-art diesel engines designed by MTUFriedrichshafen GmbH of Friedrichshafen, Germany. Alongside 12 advanced Kilo-class submarines imported from Russia, these 21 German-powered boats are the workhorses of China's modern conventional submarine force.
With Beijing flexing its muscles around disputed territory in the East China Sea and South China Sea, China's diesel-electric submarines are potentially the PLA's most serious threat to its American and Japanese rivals. This deadly capability has been built around robust and reliable engine technology from Germany, a core member of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Arms trade data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to the end of 2012 shows that 56 MTU-designed diesels for submarines have been supplied to the Chinese navy.
"They are the world's leading submarine diesel engines," says veteran engineer Hans Ohff, former managing director of the Australian Submarine Corporation, the company that built Australia's Collins-class conventional submarines.
MTU declined to answer questions about transfers to the Chinese navy, future deliveries or whether it supplies technical support or servicing. "All MTU exports strictly follow German export laws," a company spokesman said.
CHINA'S MILITARY MARKET
The Chinese defense ministry says the PLA's dependence on foreign arms technology is overstated. "According to international practice, China is also engaged in communication and cooperation with some countries in the area of weaponry development," the ministry said in a statement responding to this series. "Some people have politicized China's normal commercial cooperation with foreign countries, smearing our reputation."
Transfers of European technology to the Chinese military are documented in SIPRI data, official EU arms trade figures and technical specifications reported in Chinese military publications.
These transfers are crucial for the PLA as it builds the firepower to enforce Beijing's claims over disputed maritime territory and challenge the naval dominance of the U.S. and its allies in Asia.
China now has the world's second-largest defense budget after the United States and the fastest growing military market. Many of Europe's biggest defense contractors have been unable to resist its allure. High-performance diesels from MTU and French engine maker Pielstick also drive many of China's most advanced surface warships and support vessels, SIPRI data shows. Pielstick was jointly owned by MTU and German multinational Man Diesel & Turbo until 2006, when Man took full control.
Some military analysts remain skeptical about the quality of China's military hardware. They say the engines and technology the PLA is incorporating from Europe and Russia fall short of the latest equipment in service with the United States and its allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and Australia. This leaves the PLA a generation behind and struggling to integrate gear from a range of different suppliers, they say.
Others counter that China doesn't need to match all of the most complex weapons fielded by the United States and its allies. Even if it deploys less than the best gear, Beijing can achieve its strategic goal of blunting U.S. power.
"At what point do they become good enough?" says Kevin Pollpeter, a specialist on Chinese military innovation at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at San Diego. "If they have sufficient quantities of good-enough weapons systems, maybe that will carry the day."
LIMITS OF EMBARGO
Russia remains China's most important outside source of arms and technical assistance. The Chinese navy's best-known vessel - its sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning - was purchased from Ukraine. A U.S. Navy vessel nearly collided with a Chinese warship last week while maneuvering near the Liaoning, during a time of heightened tensions over Beijing's recent declaration of a new air-defense zone in the East China Sea.
European hardware and know-how fills critical gaps, however. It wasn't supposed to play out this way.
The European Union has had an official embargo on arms shipments to China since the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown. Washington imposes even tighter restrictions on transfers of U.S. military technology to China, inspiring energetic efforts by Beijing to smuggle American gear and know-how. Europe's embargo, however, has been far more loosely interpreted and enforced. Thus weapons and, perhaps more importantly for the PLA, dual-use technology have steadily flowed from America's European allies to China.
EU arms makers have been granted licenses to export weapons worth almost 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) to China in the 10 years to 2011, according to official figures from Brussels collated by the London-based Campaign Against Arms Trade. EU governments approved the sale of aircraft, warships, imaging equipment, tanks, chemical agents and ammunition, according to official figures.
Michael Mann, an EU spokesman in Brussels, said the EU arms embargo issued in June 1989 "does not refer to dual use goods." It is up to individual member states to exercise control over such goods, Mann said.
From China's perspective, France and the UK interpret the arms embargo most generously, mostly blocking only lethal items or complete weapons systems. France was by far the biggest EU supplier, accounting for almost 2 billion euros of these licenses. The United Kingdom ranked second with almost 600 million euros, followed by Italy with 161 million euros. The value of weapons actually shipped is difficult to extract from the data because some countries, including the UK and Germany, don't report these figures.
The value of German export licenses for weapons was a relatively modest 32 million euros in the decade to 2011. However, EU arms trade figures don't include dual-use technology that in many cases can be sold without licenses. Examples of such technology include many kinds of diesel engines. The same applies to transfers of commercial aerospace design software that can be used for fighters, bombers and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Arms industry experts say dual-use transfers are almost certainly more valuable to the PLA than the actual weapons Europe has delivered. But it's impossible to calculate a hard number for European-Chinese trade: The EU lacks a consistent system for tracking these transfers amid the vast flow of goods, services and intellectual property to China. Europe shipped goods worth 143.9 billion euros to China in 2012, according to EU trade statistics.
Critics of the EU's arms trade with China say member states have failed to devise a system to enforce the embargo. They say this reflects the loose structure of the EU, where each member state interprets the restrictions differently according to domestic law, regulations and trade policies.
Geography plays a role, too: The distance between Europe and Asia means there is ambivalence about the rapid growth of Chinese military power. From Europe, China looks like an opportunity, not a threat.
SELLING COMPONENTS
The embargo is nevertheless an embarrassment for Beijing; senior Chinese officials routinely call for it to be lifted, and pressure from Washington keeps it in place. That means the sale of complete weapons like the pan-European Eurofighter, German submarines or Spanish aircraft carriers remain impossible for the foreseeable future.
In the meantime, Europe has discovered a lucrative trade selling components, particularly if they incorporate dual-use technologies that fall outside the embargo.
"Nobody sells entire weapons systems," says Otfried Nassauer, director of the Berlin Information Centre for Transatlantic Security and an expert on Germany's arms trade. "But components, especially pricey high tech components, that works OK."
Under Beijing's long-term policies to promote innovation, domestic arms makers are encouraged to import the foreign technology that China lacks. The challenge is to adapt this range of components and know-how into locally built weapons.
One example is how German engine makers have contributed technology to support China's expanding fleet of support vessels that monitor satellites and missiles.
Man Diesel & Turbo last year announced it would supply engines built under license in China for two new transport vessels for the China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Controlling Department, part of the PLA's General Armament Department (GAD). The GAD oversees weapons research and development and manages all of China's military and civilian space operations, including the tracking of satellites and missiles. The European engine maker will also supply gear boxes, propellers and propulsion control systems for the ships from its Danish manufacturing unit, it said.
A spokesman for Man Diesel & Turbo said about 250 of its engines had been made under license in China and supplied to the Chinese navy. The company also provided some selected services and spare parts including fuel equipment.
"All our business does fully comply with the applicable export control or embargo regulations set by Germany and the European Union," the spokesman said. He added that Pielstick brand engines supplied to the PLA navy by Chinese licensees were not subject to export approval. "None of these engines is specifically designed for military purposes," he said. "There is a broad variety of civil applications for these engines, too."
UNDERWATER DISASTER
Reliable submarine engines top Beijing's shopping list, and China's navy has good reason to want the best.
In the late spring of 2003, a disabled Chinese submarine was found drifting, partly submerged, in the Bohai Sea off China's northern coast. When the boat was raised, rescuers found all 70 of its crew dead. Their deaths were blamed on "mechanical difficulties," according to reports at the time in China's state-controlled media. The outcome of any inquiry was never made public.
Since then, submariners all over the world have speculated about what went wrong aboard Ming class submarine number 361, a Chinese copy of an obsolete Russian design. Most agree it was probably a fault with its diesels. The engines either didn't shut down immediately when the submarine submerged, sucking the oxygen out of the hull in minutes, or the suffocating exhaust vented internally rather than outside the hull. Either way, the outcome was catastrophic.
It was one of Communist China's worst peacetime military disasters, and the navy chief and three other senior officers were sacked. But the People's Liberation Army navy was already taking delivery of diesels from MTU. Engineers at the Wuchang Shipyard on the Yangtze River were fitting these power plants in China's first indigenously designed and built conventional submarines, the Song class.
MTU is a unit of Germany's Tognum Group, which is jointly owned by UK-based multinational Rolls Royce Group PLC and Germany's Daimler AG. Contracts with the PLA and powerful defense manufacturers give MTU and its parent influence in competing for contracts in China's massive civilian market. China's biggest arms maker, China North Industries Group Corporation, or Norinco, has been making MTU engines under license since 1986.
In 2010, Tognum opened a joint venture with Norinco to assemble large, high speed MTU diesel engines and emergency generators at a plant in the city of Datong in Shanxi Province. A major goal of the joint venture is to win orders for emergency backup generators for China's expanding roster of nuclear power plants, Tognum said in a press statement. MTU engines are also built under license at the Shaanxi Diesel Engine Heavy Industry Co Ltd, a subsidiary of one of China's two sprawling military and commercial shipbuilders.
Submarine diesel technology is hardly new, but these engines are built to exacting standards to ensure reliability under extreme conditions. MTU has been building them for more than 50 years. The engine delivered to China for the Song and Yuan classes, the MTU 396 SE84 series, is one of the world's most widely used submarine power plants. Each of the Chinese submarines has three MTU diesels, according to technical specifications listed in Chinese military affairs journals and websites.
China's military is reluctant to acknowledge the role of foreign technology in its latest weapons, preferring to recognize the performance of its domestic designers and arms makers. But articles in maritime magazines and naval websites have credited the close relationship between MTU and China's domestic industry for providing the Song class with "the world's most advanced submarine power system."
In its promotional brochures, MTU says almost 250 of these engines in service with submarines around the world have racked up over 310,000 hours in operation. Some have also been fitted to nuclear submarines as back-up power plants, the company says. MTU also sells different versions of the 396 series for use in locomotives, power generation and mining.
A spokesman for the Federal Office for Economics and Export Control (BAFA), the German authority that has to approve dual-use exports, said exports of diesel engines built especially for military use would be illegal. Engines that can be used for both civilian and military purposes would have to be approved by BAFA, he said - and in the case of China, such dual-use engines "would probably not be approvable." He declined to comment specifically, however, about the MTU diesel engine sales to China's navy.
STEALTHY SUBMARINES
Top quality diesel engines like the MTU designs minimize vibration and noise, reducing the risk of detection by enemy sonar. In the hands of a capable crew, modern diesel submarines can be fiendishly difficult to detect. When using their electric motors, they are significantly stealthier than nuclear submarines such as those in service with the United States, naval warfare experts say. For a relatively modest investment, a diesel electric sub could sink a hugely expensive aircraft carrier or surface warship.
With whisper-quiet engines, China's best conventional submarines armed with modern torpedoes and missiles may pose the biggest danger to any potential adversary - including the U.S. Navy. Beijing's naval strategists are banking on their growing fleet of subs to keep the Americans and their allies far away from strategic flashpoints in the event of conflict, such as Taiwan or disputed territories in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
That means the Pentagon's favored method of modern warfare - parking carriers near the coast of an enemy and conducting massive air strikes - would be very risky in any clash with China.
The PLA navy has already demonstrated this capability. In 2006, a Song class submarine shocked the U.S. Navy when it surfaced about five miles from the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk, well within torpedo range, in waters off the Japanese island of Okinawa. The Chinese boat had been undetected while it was apparently shadowing the U.S. carrier and its escorts, U.S. officials later confirmed.
PLA submarines are becoming much more active. Recorded Chinese submarine patrols increased steadily from four in 2001 to 18 in 2011, according to U.S Naval Intelligence data supplied in response to freedom of information requests from a Federation of American Scientists researcher, Hans M. Kristensen.
A senior U.S. Navy official declined to comment on German delivery of diesel engines to China, but said the United States is well aware of the challenges such submarines pose. "Diesel engines are notoriously difficult to detect, but we are also always investing in improving own capabilities to make our submarines quieter," the official said. (Additional reporting by John Shiffman in Washington and Sabine Siebold in Berlin. Edited by Bill Tarrant and Michael Williams)"

WHOLE ARTICLE above is at http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/breakout-submarines-special-report-pix-g-idINL4N0JJ0FM20131219.

Connect with Intellectual Property, Stirling AIP on Chinese...Yuan Submarine, April 8, 2014 http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/stirling-aip-on-chinese-type-041-yuan.html

Pete

List of Favourites Brazil 2014 World Cup

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Above is the Brazilian final team in early June 2014 - see Photo courtesy of http://fansided.com/2014/06/05/world-cup-2014-brazil-final-team-rosters-starting-xi/#!V4Twp .

Below are what appear to be the most popular betting odds for every team in the Brazil 2014 World Cup. Some slight variations include Bovada.lv. The top favourites are at http://world-cup.betting-directory.com/ .
Note that Germany is listed at 5/1 and Australia is not a hot favourite at 500/1. At least Australia is not at the bottom of the list!
Brazil 3/1
Argentina 9/2
Germany 5/1
Spain 7/1
Belgium 14/1
France 20/1
Colombia 22/1
Holland 22/1
Italy 22/1
Uruguay 25/1
England 28/1
Portugal 28/1
Chile 50/1
Russia 66/1
Mexico 100/1
Switzerland 100/1
USA 100/1
Ecuador 125/1
Ivory Coast 125/1
Croatia 150/1
Japan 150/1
Bosnia-Herzegovina 200/1
Ghana 200/1
Greece 200/1
Nigeria 250/1
South Korea 300/1
Australia 500/1
Cameroon 500/1
Algeria 1000/1
Costa Rica 1000/1
Honduras 1500/1
Iran 1500/1

Australia's Future Submarine - Swedish vs German Claims

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This article, Saab Story: Sweden's New Submarines, June 10, 2014, http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/saab-story-swedens-new-submarines-024760/ appears to have been inserted by Saab and maybe the Swedish Government to understandably increase the chances that Australia's future submarine will be designed and partly built in Sweden. Japan's Soryu propulsion system is of course being considered by Australia and US input, or at least Lockheed Martin's, has for years been considered for the combat system. All may be even more complicated and multi-country than the Collins' deals 1980s-2000s. 

The article however seems to avoid the issue that if TKMS still owns Kockums (as indicated here http://www.kockums.se/en/ ) then TKMS through Kockums retains many intellectual property rights that Sweden-Saab assumes are Sweden's rights. Intellectual property like the Stirling engine may be used in Australia's future submarine. But who owns the the intellectual property rights to the Soryu's Stirling engine and separately does Germany mostly own the licensing rights to the Soryu's diesel? Sweden-Saab? Germany-TKMS-Kockums as it applies to Japan? Where do Japan's submarine builders, Mitsubishi and Kawasaki, stand?  It all needs to be clarified by German, Swedish, Japanese and Australian lawyers, businessmen and politicians. See also "The reported Swedish solution would buy [Australia's] ASC" below.

Here are the relevant parts of the article which is on the Defense Industry Daily website http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/saab-story-swedens-new-submarines-024760/ :


Saab Story: Sweden’s New Submarines


Jun 10, 2014 18:46 UTC by Defense Industry Daily staff

.... In order to field their next-generation design, however, Sweden may have to do something unusual: partner with other countries…
....The A26 will be equipped with an air-independent propulsion (AIP) supplement to its diesel-electric systems,...
...The A26′s AIP system will be Kockums’ Stirling, which also equips Sweden’s 3 Gotland and 2 Sodermanland Class submarines, Singapore’s Archer Class Sodermanlund variant, and Japan’s Soryu Class.
...April 14, [2014] Saab to buy Kockums. Saab AB and ThyssenKrupp Industrial Solutions AG sign a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding concerning the sale of the Swedish shipyard ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems AB (formerly named Kockums), including its Malmo, Karlskrona, and Musko operations, to Saab AB.
“Both parties agree that during the negotiations phase, the integrity and the operating ability of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems AB must be safeguarded. The transaction will be subject to regulatory approval. The negotiations between Saab AB and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems AB are at an early stage and more information will follow.”
There’s a major backstory here. Sweden’s FMV effectively raided TKMS’ offices in Malmo “to take sensitive technological equipment,” but FMV says that since “…it was a transfer of defence material, belonging to FMV, all information regarding the transfer is classified as secret”. It’s generally believed that they came and took the A26 submarine’s plans, as well as a complete Stirling Air-Independent Propulsion system, which are technically owned by the Swedish state. [does Germany-TKMS agree it is legally owned by Sweden?] A country that believes time is of the essence, and doesn’t want what it perceives as a hostile corporation to have leverage from holding state materials, might be inclined to move swiftly. The very fact that this happened speaks to how badly relations between Sweden and TKMS have deteriorated. 
April 12, [2014]: Australia. The Collins Class was built around a Swedish design, and News Corp Australia says that Saab and the Swedish Government have been engaged in secret talks around a new joint submarine effort. That proposed approach may have the potential to cut through many of the dilemmas faced by Australia’s government, and Sweden’s as well....
The reported Swedish solution would buy [Australia's] ASC,and embark on a fully cooperative joint design for Sweden and Australia’s next submarines. Australia would receive a design that’s explicitly built for Australia’s needs – a necessary compromise for Sweden, whose needs are different. It’s also worth noting that the Japanese Soryu Class propulsion system which is attracting so much interest from Australia’s Navy is part Swedish. From industry’s point of view, making ASC part of Saab removes any conflict of interests with a foreign firm that acts as the project lead, creating both development jobs/skills, and production work. From the politicians’ point of view, a program that includes Sweden and Australia offers the added security of shared risk, and shared acquisitions.
Sweden is looking to re-establish an independent submarine industry (q.v. March 26/14), and their challenge will be buying enough talent, building an equivalent production workforce, and designing the new sub within Sweden’s budgets. Australia offers Sweden a development partner, and a workforce with good experience...."
PETE'S COMMENT
This whole matter still seems a political and legal mess or challenge, at least. If TKMS looks like it would lose Australia's future tender to build Australia's future submarine then TKMS will construct legal intellectual property right obstructions to make it very difficult for Saab to smoothly win the tender.
Pete 

Iraq: the ISIS crisis

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Something I had published on Australia's ON LINE opinion on Friday June 20, 2014 http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16422 indicating "The US is neither all-seeing nor all-powerful. Australia, if it wants to be active in Iraq, cannot act alone so it must follow some country’s lead. With the US inevitably pivoting to Eastern European commitments (Ukraine) and Middle Eastern commitments (ISIS) Australia needs to contribute in some way to the shifting geo-political picture." :

Iraq: the ISIS crisis

By Peter Coates - posted Friday, 20 June 2014

The bloody progression of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) rebel forces to the outskirts of Baghdad continues with a wide range of outcomes possible. The rapid expansion of ISIS (also known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)) has come as a shock. This article attempts to present some issues that have received inadequate attention in mainstream media reporting on the ISIS crisis.

Although Islamic Sunni-Shiite hatreds have existed for around 1,400 years the Sunni rebels of ISIS are an unusually violent problem. This map gives one idea of how central Iraq is in the region and of the refugee (internally displaced people (IDPs)) problem created by ISIS’ advance. This smaller map is of the ISIS advance itself.

ISIS’ presence in Syria and Iraq is probably boosting the risk of international terrorism. It is Iraq’s huge amounts of oil, however, that differentiate Iraq from Syria. Several years of frequent suicide bombings in Iraq have sparked little media attention but ISIS seizing Iraqi regional cities and oilfields has rattled surrounding countries and is driving up world oil prices.

Unlike Syria, with few Westerners, Iraq hosts a large Western foreign contractor-government employee presence due mainly to oil.The UK Daily Mail reports that the US embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone has around 5,000 personnel making it the largest US embassy in the world. This may indicate that that US embassy is part of a huge diplomatic cocktail circuit or perhaps it has other functional priorities?

A powerful presence of Western government representatives in Iraq also responds to conflicting concerns of Iraq’s Shiite and Sunni neighbours. Iran has reportedly sent as many as 2,000 men from Quds special forces units of Iran's Revolutionary Guard into Iraq to boost defences against ISIS in and around Baghdad. This indicates how close the Shiite leadership of Iraq is to the Shiite’s leading Iran. It is also significant that Iraq has not protested against Syrian airstrikes launched by Syria’s Shiite government against ISIS convoys actually within Iraq (near the town of Al Qaim).

Sunni dominated governments, including Saudi Arabia and smaller Arab Gulf states, are nervous that regionally powerful Iranian forces may combine with Iraq’s to present a large Shiite military threat. Hence ISIS is semi-openly recruiting in Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s neighbours and the international economy generally are also concerned about rapid fluctuations in world oil price and production levels caused by the ISIS crisis.

It is unclear whether US military activity concerning Iraq will mainly be an airstrike or evacuation mission (or both). Iraq’s Sunni dominated neighbours may well decide not to host any US aircraft or drones that might kill ISIS Sunni rebels. To adjust to this limitation the US military reports that a US fleet is now sitting in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. This fleet consists of: the carrier USS George H.W. Bush (helicopters for evacuation, strike aircraft and intelligence collection); the cruiser USS Philippine Sea (able to fire at least 122 cruise missiles); and three destroyers each able to fire 90 cruise missiles. Also in the fleet is the USS Mesa Verde an amphibious warship that can carry 800 marines, helicopters and Osprey tilt rotorcraft. The Age has published an article presenting eight military options Obama might be considering.

Baghdad’s location might make a Western evacuation by helicopter or road difficult. Baghdad is a 1,200 km round trip from the US fleet in the Persian Gulf and alternatively it would be a long trip by road south to Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. Baghdad is however a short road or helicopter trip to the Iranian border, hence Western talks with Iran probably include evacuation scenarios.

It was unclear whether Abbott’s comments relating to Iraq (when he met President Obama several days ago) ran too far in advance of any consultation with the Australian public, Parliament or Abbott’s own party room (see this youtube). How Australia could aid any US military or evacuation effort is a question mark. Australian assistance might be in the shape of use of one of Australia’s new E-7A Wedgetail aircraft for force communication or one of our Orions to gather intelligence. If the Iraq crisis runs into weeks or months the deployment of one of our ANZAC frigates might contribute to the US fleet effort. Some Australian army special forces might also be sent to contribute to the protection force [written before the Australian Government announced it was sending 30 SAS to Baghdad as a protection force] for the Western community in Baghdad’s Green Zone.

In the last 48 hours Iraq has formerly asked the US to launch airstrikes against ISIS. Critics from the right and left will damn the US for anything it does or doesn’t do. The US is neither all-seeing nor all-powerful. Australia, if it wants to be active in Iraq, cannot act alone so it must follow some country’s lead. With the US inevitably pivoting to Eastern European commitments (Ukraine) and Middle Eastern commitments (ISIS) Australia needs to contribute in some way to the shifting geo-political picture.

Pete

CIA's Operational Problems in Iraq

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A hazard of life in Iraq

Only in American would a serious academic website like IntelNews publish an article about CIA officers in Iraq having problems talking to their sources, See the following IntelNews article by Joseph Fitsanakis of June 23, 2014  at http://intelnews.org/2014/06/23/01-1501/ :


"CIA ‘stripped of spies’ in embattled Iraq, say sources"

"The Sunni uprising in Iraq, in combination with the Shiite domination of the government in Baghdad, has drastically limited the ability of the United States Central Intelligence Agency to collect dependable intelligence, according to sources. 

Newsweek’s veteran intelligence correspondent, Jeff Stein, said on Friday that the Agency had been “stripped of its spies” in the embattled country and was struggling to rebuild its network of assets. Stein cited “knowledgeable intelligence sources” as saying that the CIA had lost many of its sources inside the government in Baghdad, which is now firmly in Shiite hands. 

Since assuming power in 2006, Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, gradually purged most Sunnis from senior government positions, thus shutting down the CIA’s eyes and ears in Baghdad. 

The intelligence-collection problem for the Agency has worsened since the breakout of the Sunni uprising in the west of the country, which has prompted mass defections of senior tribal leaders to al-Qaeda-inspired rebel groups. Many of these leaders were previously valuable sources of information for the CIA, which has traditionally had far more contacts with Iraqi Sunnis than Shiites. 

To make things worse, says Stein, CIA operatives in Iraq are unable to travel outside of Baghdad due to the worsening security situation in the country. Instead, they remain “holed up” in the American embassy compound and rely almost exclusively on “technical means” of intelligence collection (and, one presumes, a variety of open sources). 

Inevitably, the Agency is now much more reliant than usual on information provided by regional intelligence services, such as Turkey’s and Jordan’s, who still have agents on the ground in Iraq. One “former operative” who maintains contact with US embassy staff, told Newsweek that the CIA contingent at the US compound is “not being tasked to do a lot of stuff” and is currently “not doing much”. 

Another former senior CIA operations officer said: “the train has left the station”, implying that it will be a long time before the Agency can rebuild its network of assets in the country. But a current US intelligence official told Stein that, although the Sunni insurgency took the CIA by surprise, “Washington had a clear picture” of the situation in the country and that its intelligence “capabilities are intact”."

German Submarine Developments 1945-1960s - Work in Progress

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Diagram of a Type XXI.
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The evolution of postwar German designed submarines - starting with the HDW 201 at the bottom of the diagram.

This study of German submarine developments is a work in progress which is extending from the immediate post World War Two era - through the 1960s launch of HDW Type 205s - to the July 2014 TKMS efforts to sell between 6 and 12 large SSKs to Australia.

Allied Derivatives of the German Type XXI 

At the end of WWII the victorious allies benefited from Germany’s advanced U-boat developments which reached the most useful state of development in the Type XXI U-boat. The XXI's much higher battery capacity and snorkel resulted in a far lower “indiscretion [unsafe operating] ratio” and streamlined hull all allowed faster, longer duration  and quieter submerged operation. 

XXI designs influenced post-war submarines, including the:

-  US GUPPY (greater underwater propulsion power program) improvements to the US GatoBalao, and Tench class submarines;

-  Soviet submarine projects designated by NATO as the WhiskeyZulu and Romeo classes;

- Chinese built Romeo class submarines based on the XXI design via Soviet-supplied designs. The Ming class, is based on the Romeo design. Some Mings are still in operation in the PLA-Navy 2013 (2 Mings are being transferred to Bangladesh).

-  UK Porpoise and Oberon classes,

-  France, the XXI ex-U 2518 became French submarine Roland Morillot The XXI design influence the French Arethuse and Daphne classes, and

-  Sweden’s Hajen class (built 1954-58) was also influenced by the XXIs.

Postwar Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) 

Two German WWII internal oxygen supply AIP developments were tested by some victorious allies after WWII. But proved too problematic to be adopted. These technologies included the:

-  Walter engine - hydrogen peroxide is used as a source of oxygen to burn diesel driving steam turbines. An article translated from German providing more detail on the Walter Drive (engine) is here. This technology proved too volatile and explosive to be safe, and 

- closed cycle diesel engines -  uses a submarine diesel engine which can be operated conventionally on the surface, but which can also be provided with oxidant, stored as liquid oxygen,. Considered dangerously explosive from fire, heat or sparks.

Postwar Transition

Between May 1945 and 1956  former members of the Kriegsmarine formed the nucleus of the German Mine Sweeping Administration amounting to a transition stage for the navy. In 1956, with West Germany's accession to NATO, the West German Navy, colloquially known as Bundesmarine (Federal Navy?) was established. In 1956 East Germany formed the Volksmarine ("People's Navy"). 

Submarines ("U-Boots") were (still are?) built at HDW dockyards at Kiel and Hamburg.

The HDW Type 201

From around 1957 West German facilities to develop and construct submarines had been repaired, rebuilt or built. This included dockyards which had been destroyed by bombing in the war. 

In West Germany The HDW 201s, launched in 1962, were Germany's first class of military submarines built after World War II. 

Functions - They were designed to defend coastal (or littoral) Baltic-North Sea areas and therefore could be very light in displacement (350 tonnes surfaced and 450 tonnes submerged) with a total of 8 torpedoes or 16 sea mines

They were built out of a magnetic steel to counter the threat of magnetic naval mines, but this steel  had been insufficiently tested and proved to be problematic in service with the BundesmarineMicroscopic cracks in the pressure hull forced the cancellation of 9 of the 12 ordered submarines and the early retirement of the three completed boats. This led to the need for the Type 205s.

Type 205

205s mainly differed from the 201s in hull steel used. Various steels were tried in different 205 hulls. The most acceptable steel was found to be PN 18 S2, which was developed by the steel company Phoenix Rheinrohr . PN 18 S2 (is ST-52 the same steel?) has been used for all subsequent submarines for the German Navy up to Type 212A . 

The Type 205s were launched from 1962 to 1968 and operational between 1967 and 2004The last 205 in service waU 12 eventually used as a test bed for new weapons systems until its retirement in June 2005.

Functions - Up until the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) major peacetime functions most probably included providing a deterrent and electronic and special forces intelligence gathering missions against Warsaw Pact countries. If war broke out the 205's main function was to operate within the NATO structure specifically to defend against Warsaw Pact landing ships and other naval vessels threatening the Baltic and North Seas. 

Wikipedia-English sources used so far



Wikipedia-German sources being used


Thankyou MHalblaub for drawing my attention to Wikipedia-German and other websites translated into English which have much more detail on German submarine matters  :-)


[The shipyard HDW has his own ideas to a more advanced version called class 216 presented, which should have a greater range and a longer operating lifetime of a compared to the 212 Class almost 40 percent larger boat length. [18] Potential buyers of the 4000-t- Boats Australia could be that looking for a replacement for the submarines of the Collins-class is. [19] The submarines have 33 people crew. Instead of the outdated lead-acid batteries of any ancestors are here lithium-ion batteries can be used. [20]reference to 218SG]

Other German sources being used

http://www.die-marine.de/_deutsch/schiffe/subm.htmThe U-boat Arm of the German Navy
http://seefahrer.blog.de/tags/uboot/ Seafarer or Sailor blog

Pete

US influences on Australia's Future Submarine Selection Process

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Some of the components of the Collins US made Combat System. All of the System's databases, work stations, sensors and US made weapons need to be squeezed into the Collins - see http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/msd/sea1439/index.cfm .
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An Anonymous commenter [see https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19245896&postID=1447471589788289697 comment of June 25, 2014 at 1:39 PM]  has asked.


"...why the importance of US tech in Australia's submarine choice is not acknowledged in any of these posts or comments (sorry if I've missed anything). My insider tells me ...the Americans DO NOT do third party deals and sub data and tech is among their most sensitive and tightly held."

To which I say Mr Anonymous is incorrect and poorly advised on all counts. The hide to doubt my authoritah :) !

Right through the blog I talk of cooperation between Australia SSKs and the US SSNs including submarine visits to each other's bases. America being Australia's major military ally and nuclear safety net.

US and Australian submarines rely on the mainly US maintained, immensely complex SeaWeb (other "inhouse" acronyms might be used) communications and sensor system.

The US and Australia are constantly refining the US designed submarine combat system known as the US General Dynamics AN/BYG-1A combat system may well involve up to one third of the cost and development effort for a submarine.This highly protected system (one of America's major secrets) was provided by the US for the Collins. The combat system is the system of sensors, database, management and targeting system which interacts with all of the Collins weapons. The AN/BYG-1 is apparently used on all US SSNs and SSGNs. 

The Collins weapons include the American made Mk 48 torpedoes and Harpoon missiles. The Collins is (US Tomahawk SLCM capable. The mines are UK made.

It is highly likely that Australia's future submarine will continue this mutually beneficial relationship. Basically Australia would not throw away 4 decades of corporate memory, daily alliance coordination and SeaWeb interaction just because Australia can only buy SSKs - meaning German, French, Swedish? Spanish? and/or Japanese submarines hulls and engines. Australia is, of course, incapable of deciding to buy far more suitable SSNs.

So Australia's future submarine combat system would need to be able to talk to and work with the US Navy, utilise the US would-wide SeaWeb and fire US made submarine weapons. If say, the UK or Spain are part contractors for the combat system they would still need to adhere to US standards (drawing on their own technological and bilateral alliances with the US).  

In support of the above I draw Mr Anonymous's attention to two existing posts on this blog indicating Australian Defence Minister and RAN-DMO statements.


In October 2009 Australia's then Minister of Defence Material Greg Combet, speaking still current RAN views, indicated  that the US would play a big part in developing Australia's future submarine.

The Sydney Morning Herald recorded what Mr Combet said on October 6, 2009. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/us-to-play-key-role-in-new-aussie-subs-20091006-gky2.html:

"US 'to play key role' in new Aussie subs"October 6, 2009

"Australia wants the assistance of the United States as it looks to replace the Collins class submarines, junior defence minister Greg Combet says.

Mr Combet, in the US for talks with administration and industry officials, said the US was a leader in the design and development of submarine technology.

"I expect that Australia will look to learn from companies like General Dynamics Electric Boat and Lockheed Martin in designing and developing the Collins class replacement," he said in a statement.

Under plans outlined in the defence white paper launched in May, Australia will acquire a fleet of 12 new submarines to replace the six Collins boats in the decade from 2020. It will be Australia's biggest military acquisition.

The government was committed to ensuring that Australia obtained a world leading submarine capability, Mr Combet said.

"US technology is likely to be an important facilitator of this capability," he said.

Electric Boat designed and shared construction of the Virginia class submarines for the US Navy and had been instrumental in driving down production costs to enable the US to increase the production rate.

Lockheed Martin was a major supplier in the US Navy submarine combat system, the Collins replacement combat system and supplied submarine combat systems or components to Spain and the United Kingdom."



Also see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/australias-future-submarine-selection-s.html of 20 January 2014 

Prime Minister, Minister for Defence and Minister for Defence Materiel – Joint Media Release – 2013 Defence White Paper: The Future Submarine Program 3 May 2013 http://www.minister.defence.gov.au/2013/05/03/prime-minister-minister-for-defence-and-minister-for-defence-materiel-joint-media-release-2013-defence-white-paper-the-future-submarine-program-2/

...The Government has also taken the important decision to use the United States AN/BYG-1 combat system as the reference system for future design work.  The early definition of a combat system is a feature of a successful submarine program.  It allows the submarine design to proceed utilising more accurate projections of space, weight and power requirements.

Also see  SEA 1439 PHASE 4A - COLLINS CLASS REPLACEMENT COMBAT SYSTEM http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/msd/sea1439/index.cfm concerning an upgrade process of the AN/BYG-1 combat system conducted jointly by the US and Australia up to 2019 “in conjunction with the Replacement [amounting to upgrades of the US Mk 48] Heavyweight Torpedo (Project SEA 1429)”which points to future integration with US weapons.

There it is. Mr Anonymous (from Australia?) can say sorry :)

Pete

Australian Counter-Terrorism Lawmaking

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On June 4, 2014 Australia's ON LINE opinion published an article at http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16460 that I wrote concerning laws and the perceived terrorist risks arising from fighting in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars.The major concern being that amended or new counter-terrorism laws are required to take account of jihadis who wish to return to Australia or do return. Note - towards the end of the article some terrorism problems in Germany are described. I have slightly modified this Australia by the Indian Ocean blog version:


Australian Counter-Terrorism Lawmaking


Ongoing civil wars in Syria and Iraq are making the job of police and security agencies in Australia even more complex and daunting than usual. An increase in the number of young men going overseas to fight in these civil wars carries with it the risk they will bring newly acquired violent skills back to Australia. Other countries, including those in Europe, are also responding to perceived increases in terrorism risks. We may be of many faiths but we are Australians first so shouldn't be ruled by religion.

The Federal Attorney-General, Senator Brandis, discussed these issues with the peak Islamic leadership (senior Imams) on Wednesday, July 2, 2014. Senator Brandis said "The Abbott government is absolutely determined that the troubles in the Middle East will not have an impact of Australia's domestic population. We acknowledge that this is an important national security issue." Sheikh Saleem, a member of the National Imams Council responded that "It is a matter for all of us…to build a secure and peaceful Australia and this a very challenging time [. The] news that over 60 Australians are participating in war in Syria and Iraq is a shock to every individual Muslim in this country."

To address these heightened concerns about international and home-grown terrorism the Government is scheduled, on July 14, 2014, to introduce a range of proposed amendments to national security legislation into ParliamentThis will be followed by more proposed amendments over the next few months. These initial proposed amendments concern: Australian police and security agencies' powers to conduct surveillance in countries where governance has broken down; powers to monitor and disrupt suspect computer networks; suspension of passports; and other issues. These represent the most major proposed changes to counter-terrorism laws since those introduced by the Howard Government in 2005.  The amendments are mainly based on recommendations of a parliamentary committee inquiry into intelligence and security. These are contained in a report tabledunder the previous (Labor) Government last year. The proposed amendments also draw on recommendations in the latest Annual Report of the outgoing Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM), Bret Walker.

Checks and balances are important particularly over major changes to counter-terrorism laws, but it appears one check is to be abolished. While major counter-terrorism amendments are about to go before Parliament the  Government is recommending that (to save money and reduce duplication) the position of INSLM be terminated (see this Brisbane Times article). Bret Walker wrote on page 3 of the 2014 INSLM Annual Report: "The INSLM is not aware of any other officer, agency or "level" of government doing what Parliament required to be done by the INSLM Act enacted in 2010.''

Australia's concern over heightened radicalism caused by the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars has also been felt by other Western countries including those in Europe. More than 300 Germans and 2,000 – 3,000 other Europeans are estimated to be involved in Syrian and Iraqi fighting.

It is thought that most Europeans and Australians who are involved have used Turkey as the initial entry point by walking, or been driven, over the Turkish border into Syria. McClatchy News reports that since 2011 Turkey has not banned this movement of young men crossing over the Turkish border to fight in Syria or Iraq. Religious differences may play a part in this situation. Most Turks are Sunni, like most anti-government insurgents in Syria and Iraq, while Syrian and Iraqi government forces are mainly Shiite.

McClatchy News reports an aspect of what might be a relatively humanitarian German approach to terrorism issues :"Claudia Dantschke, a German specialist in Islam who tries to identify and counsel families where the young people are at risk of choosing the fight, says the official reaction struggles to keep up with the increased intensity of recruiting actions." She wrote in an email "The public awareness for the problem of young people from Germany joining the jihad has increased, so more families are turning to us for help." She says Germany faces "a massive increase in propaganda from recruiters for [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)]…[ISIS] have Germans spreading their propaganda on Facebook in German, in groups frequented by teenagers and on pages of people they identify with. The extent and effect of this radical direct approach is a new thing."

Anxiety that civil wars in the Middle East may result in violence here in Australia provides one of the justifications (along with communications technological change) for amended counter-terrorism laws. Australians shouldn't become involved in other people's wars. If they do it should be as a result of legitimately constituted processes of government. The comeback that our armed forces become involved forgets that Australia's leaders are democratically voted in by all Australians over 18 and can be voted out. There is also little risk that ours soldiers might commit violent acts once they return to Australia. Terrorism is a global fear that shouldn't impinge on our lives.

Pete

Australia may select Japanese Submarine

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The Maritime Executive (MAREX) reported, July 9, 2014 that http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/Australia-Inches-Closer-to-Japanese-Submarine-Deal-2014-07-09 : 

July 09, 2014

Australia Inches Closer to Japanese Submarine Deal

Australian Defence Minister David Johnston hailed the signing on Wednesday of an agreement with Japan as “an important milestone”. The agreement will deepen bilateral defense science and technology cooperation.

Australia’s Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signed the agreement in Canberra during Abe’s visit to Australia. “This is an important milestone in the Australia-Japan defense relationship, and an integral part of the broader efforts to strengthen our strategic partnership,” said Johnston.

The agreement will facilitate deeper bilateral defense technology cooperation, and the first project will be the Marine Hydrodynamics Project, an important topic in relation to designing a submarine’s hull to ensure its low noise, stealth capabilities and to improve propulsive efficiency. 

The sharing may not be all one-sided. Scientists from Australia have invented sound-absorbing hull and mast tiles that absorb the radio-wave pings sent out by searching sonar sets. Japan is also said to be interested in radar technology developed in Australia that has proved to be effective at shooting down incoming supersonic missiles.

Currently the Japanese constitution prevents that country from taking military defensive action on behalf of allies, but Abe is looking to change that to allow for the concept of “collective self-defense”. Consequently, allies might be more inclined to assist Japan if needed. Australia and Japan have already agreed to work together on submarine design, and this change in policy is viewed as contributing to a growing alliance between the countries. 

Australia may ask Japan for help in designing a new class of submarine or may consider buying complete submarines from Japan. Australia’s previous government had promised to build 12 submarines in Adelaide for a total cost of around $40 billion, the country’s most expensive defense project. However, the Abbott government, elected in September last year, may downsize that and is said to be considering other options.

Of-the-shelf European submarines have been rejected in the past for being too small and lacking in range for Australian conditions, so Japan’s Soryu class are now an attractive prospect given the willingness of Japan to engage with Australia on the project.

“The language being used is unprecedented in terms of speaking of the special relationship, the depth and breadth of the friendship and their preparedness to share sensitive information with us,” Australia’s minister for foreign affairs, Julie Bishop told The Australian.

However, Australia still claims to be in discussions with other countries including Germany, France, the US and Britain. “This is not the only option available to us at this stage. It’s one of a number,” Johnston says.

The ability of any Japanese submarines bought by Australia to operate with the US fleet of nuclear submarines will be a significant factor. Any new Australian submarines are likely to include the same combat system and [US Mark 48] torpedoes as the US Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines and near-silent propellers developed in the US.

If Australia bought foreign off-the-shelf submarines it would be a serious setback for the local shipbuilding industry. However, after delays and cost overruns in the Air Warfare Destroyer project, the government has already chosen to build a new series of naval supply ships in either Spain or South Korea." ENDS

PETE's COMMENT

Note that Japan in the next few years plans to develop a new generation submarine to start replacing the current Soryu's by the 2030s. What the Soryu's probably don't have (vertical multi-purpose locks (VMPLs)? Lithium-ion batteries?) - which Australia probably wants - might be incorporated into Japan's next generation submarine. 

Pete

Australia's Future Submarine - a $40 Billion Risk?

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[The following is under copyright]


The selection process to build 6 to 12 Australian future submarines involves many hurdles and pitfalls. It would be hugely wasteful for politicians, admirals and officials to again make hasty choices that again steer this country into a Collins disaster. When the 2014-2015 Defence White Paper is published next year it will be too early to “pick winners” because Japanese options are only starting to be looked at. At current estimates the up-front cost for 12 submarines may amount to $40 Billion (funds Australia doesn’t currently have). It is appropriate that Australia not be locked into another ASC build in South Australia madness – whatever Labor promised to the maritime unions in 2009 http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/Submarines#_Toc325531486 .

It is also vital for Australia to avoid the major integration problems caused by the purchase of essential systems (including hull, propulsion and combat systems, others?) from too many equipment companies of too many nations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#McIntosh-Prescott_Report_and_Fast_Track_program. Australia’s business model of locally built submarines and ships may well be over-ambitious and un-affordable. The poor current performance of Australian industry in naval construction should also be seen as a risk and uncertainty. The current Air War Destroyer project is increasingly seen as a project to build three destroyers for the price of four, with the usual suspects featured. “The problems had been compounded by the unwieldy set-up of the AWD Alliance, made up of the government military purchaser the Defence Materiel Organisation, the government-owned shipbuilder ASC and…” http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/navys-air-warfare-destroyer-project-blows-out-by-300m-20140306-34a8n.html With a timeline overlapping the future submarine project Australia also plans to build 8 future frigates http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/id/dcp/html_dec10/sea/Sea5000.html - each expected to weigh 7,000 tons.

An additional layer of risk and uncertainty has been added over the last two weeks with reports that the Australian Government may see merit in selecting a Japanese submarine propulsion system and perhaps a complete Japanese submarine http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/28/uk-japan-australia-submarine-idUKKBN0E82FG20140528 . It is Japan’s current Soryu class submarine that has caught Australian attention. The Soryu has a propulsion system (including the diesel-electric engine and AIP) that may be suitable for the very large conventional submarine that Australia is seeking. Problems for Australia in utilising a complete Soryu design are that Soryus very likely do not carry all the features that Australia probably wants including: Lithium-ion batteries and a Vertical Multi-Purpose Lock (VMPL) that can carry divers, undersea drones or extra Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The willingness of the Japanese government of Prime Minister Abe to consider exporting submarine technology to Australia has only come about via recent and radical departure in Japan from the traditionally pacifist political and constitutional approach in Japan. These new ideas may not be deeply or broadly held in Japanese politics. Hence there is a risk that a new Japanese government after Abe (perhaps a centrist-pacifist Democratic Party government) might effectively renege on any Japanese understandings, promises and contracts concerning submarines.

The sensibilities of the Japanese public and Chinese government pressures must also be considered in any Australian-Japan submarine deal. Japan has a strong public peace movement which can be highly antagonistic towards Japan’s military alliances (particularly concerning US bases). Significant numbers of the Japanese public might also see a Japanese-Australian submarine export deal as a security relationship that should be opposed. China, fearing a remilitarised Japan, may also exert political and economic pressure on Australia and on Japan (including the Soryu’s principal builders Kawasaki and Mitsubishi) to break up a submarine based security relationship. It must be remembered that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Australia, Japan, the US, India) proposed by Prime Minister Abe in 2007 collapsed in 2008 when Australia pulled out of it due to Chinese pressure http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue#Rudd.E2.80.99s_departure .
If the Australian Government insists a future submarine be built locally it is prudent for Australia to move slowly in its decision making. Australia simply doesn’t have the money, won’t have it for years and there are too many uncertainties over the Japan card.

The most likely outcome for Australia’s future submarine may be ASC working with a German, French, Japanese, Spanish or Swedish prime contractor to integrate a hull from that contractor with a Japanese propulsion system and American combat system. The latter two systems might be selected on their merits but with a tacit understanding that Pacific security alliances with Japan and the US are important determinants.

A far cheaper, easier and less problematic approach might be to choose just one foreign company as the prime contractor and provider of the systems. The most experienced companies, with the most reputable sales record, and the most experience building submarines outside their home countries are Germany’s TKMS-HDW and France’s DCNS. Spain’s Navantia falls down on having never designed or exported a submarine without heavy French involvement and there have been major program problems with Navantia’s current go-it-alone project – the S-80. Sweden falls down on having not being associated with a new submarine build since HMAS Rankin (of the Collins Class) was built in Australia in 2003. The association of Sweden with the Collins is not a positive selling point in Australian minds.

Just because submarines are a defence item doesn’t mean Australia’s future submarine project has to be excessively complicated and overly expensive. Australia has choices to make the process more simple, less risky and less expensive. A post Collins submarine selection process of selecting and managing a mixture of competing companies, nations and technologies for a locally built submarine is unnecessary. Australia can choose a major company like TKMS or DCNS to use its corporate experience and connections to identify and manage more efficient choices rather than diverse major suppliers. Australia could also decide to have the submarines built overseas in Germany, France or perhaps Japan. Having submarines built at the shipyards of these foreign submarine companies should free up $Billions that would have been expended in a local build process. Those $Billions saved could be spent on other industrial development purposes in Australia. 

Australia is having its F-35 jet fighters built in the US – therefore why not have Australia’s submarines built overseas? Could it be that aviation industries are mobile while shipbuilding industries must be locked in the shipyard past?

Pete

Russian Military Intelligence and MH17 Shootdown

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Pictured is Lieutenant Colonel Igor Bezler of the Russian military intelligence directorateGRU, who commands, or until yesterday, commanded the separatists who shot down MH17.


Where MH17 was shot down. (Diagram credit). Also see http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9m-mrd/#3d6095b .
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The "Buk" SA-11 [other synonyms "Gadfly" 9K37] surface to air missile (SAM) system that was very likely used by the Russian military directed separatists. It shows the 25 km ceiling-altitude of the missile - which was more than enough to shoot down MH17 - hence murdering those aboard.
(Diagram credit )
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Thanks MHalblaub for providing many of the links, some comments, while I was still asleep, in the hours immediately after the shootdown. 

JUNE 29, 2014 - LESS THAN 3 WEEKS BEFORE THE SHOOTDOWN
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262 :

DONETSK, June 29, /ITAR-TASS/. Self-defence forces [pro-Russian separatists] of the Donetsk People’s Republic have taken control over a missile defence army unit equipped with Buk missile defence systems, the press service of the Donetsk People’s Republic told Itar-Tass on Sunday.

So far, no details are available about the number and condition of the missile systems taken over by the self-defence forces. The press service refused to comment.

The Buk missile defence system is a mobile medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to defend field troops and logistics installations against air threats in conditions of heavy electronic countermeasures and intense enemy fire.
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JULY 15, 2014 - THE FSB WILL SOON PURGE THE GRU 

On July 15, 2014 I, using my pseudonym "plantagenet" on On Line Opinion wrote http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=16493&page=0#288071 :

" - Crimea and now eastern Ukraine . I hear the FSB will soon purge the GRU itself because the GRU is doing too well in terms of oppression. See "Crimea crisis brings Russian military spies back in the game"http://intelnews.org/2014/07/09/01-1510/ 
Cheers
Pete

Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 15 July 2014 8:41:04 PM "

It was just an educated hunch. The GRU had risen too quickly lately in the Russian intelligence pecking order, due to its early-mid 2014 successes in collecting intelligence in Crimea-Ukraine and in deploying special forces troops in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Internally, Putin will blame the GRU for the shootdown mistake - a grievous public relations disaster for Russia. Putin will use his main enforcer and old workplace, FSB, to punish the GRU. 
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JULY 17, 2014 - HOURS AFTER THE SHOOTDOWN


"When You Mess With Civilian Airliners, You Mess With the World: MH17 shootdown takes the war beyond Ukraine

On July 17, someone shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, killing 298 people.
Ukraine blames Russia. Russia blames Ukraine. No one is sure yet exactlywhat happened. But the available facts point to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine as being responsible.

It’s the latest tragedy in a conflict the international community can no longer contain with sanctions and rhetoric.

Minutes after the crash of MH17, a popular Russian social media page bearing the name of the seperatists’ military commander bragged about downing an aircraft near the village of Torez. The post was later deleted and the site now claims to have received the information from forums and notofficial channels.
“It does seem pretty conclusive that Strelkov did comment about shooting down a plane,” Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at New York University, told War is Boring via email. “That fits with my working assumption, which is that this was an insurgent missile—provided by the Russians—launched at what they thought was a Ukrainian government aircraft.”

The rebels do have the weapons to take down an airliner like MH17. We know because they told us. On June 29, the press office of the separatists reported they had taken control of a 9K37 Buk anti-air missile system.

The Buk is a medium-range, surface-to-air missile system developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s. It’s a popular export—both Ukraine and the rebels are using the missiles.

This is the context of an escalating air war in eastern Ukraine. On June 17, Kiev claimed a Russian jet shot down a Ukrainian fighter plane. On Monday, a separatist missile downed a Ukrainian An-26 transport plane. Earlier in the month, separatists downed an An-30. On June 13, the rebels shot down an Il-76 transport.

The rebels are working hard to control the airspace above eastern Ukraine, but these were low-flying planes and the Buk missile can travel to as high as [25 km]. MH17 flew at [10 km], well within the Buk’s range.
YouTube videos go up and come down. Some claim to show the crash while others show the Buk missile system moving through areas near Torez."
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JULY 18, 2014 - ONE DAY AFTER THE SHOOTDOWN

RUSSIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CONTROLLED THOSE WHO SHOT DOWN MH17

"The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200[ER] flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was allegedly shot down [on July 17, 2014] by a group of Russian-backed Cossack militants near the village of Chornukhine, Luhansk Oblast, some 80 kilometers north-west of Donetsk, [in eastern Ukraine very near the border with Russia - see map above] according to recordings of intercepted phone calls between Russian military intelligence [GRU] officers and members of terrorist groups, released by the country’s security agency (SBU).
One phone call apparently was made at 4:40 p.m. Kyiv time, or 20 minutes after the plane crash, by Igor Bezler, who the [Security Service of Ukraine] SBU says is a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. He reports to a person identified by Ukraine’s SBU as a [Colonel in Russian GRU military intelligence] Vasili Geranin [on Geranin see last paragraph of text on the Bezler Wikipedia article] regarding the shot down plane, which is about to be examined by the militants.
The second intercepted conversation released by [SBU] was apparently between militants nicknamed “Major” and "Greek" immediately upon inspection of the crash site. 
“It’s 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft,” Major is recorded as saying, as he admitted to seeing no weapons on site. “Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.” 
In the third part of conversation Cossack commander Nikolay Kozitsin talking to an unidentified militant cynically suggests that the Malaysia Airlines airplane could've been carrying spies, as, otherwise, it would have no business flying in that area.
Read the full transcript of an intercepted phone call below: 
Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).
Vasili Geranin on Geranin see last paragraph of text on the Bezler Wikipedia article]: Pilots. Where are the pilots?
Igor Bezler: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.
Vasili Geranin: How many minutes ago?
Igor Bezler: About 30 minutes ago.
SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later
40 minutes later.
Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
"Greek": Yes, Major.
"Major": The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.
"Greek": Well, what do you have there?
“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.
"Greek": Are many people there?
“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
"Greek": What kind of aircraft?
“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
"Greek": Is there anything left of the weapon?
“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
"Greek": Are there documents?
“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson. 
Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.
They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?
Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on" ENDS
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COMMENTS
I'm sure Putin's propaganda mill will persuade the chatterati (known as "useful idiots" in Russia) that it was the fault of Ukraine and the victim (MH17) for being "raped".

Unfortunately captured or bought small and medium SAMs may become more commonly used by insurgents-terrorists elsewhere - especially in the Middle East (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq) and Afghanistan-Pakistan, also several countries in Africa.

Israel has already developed an anti-missile laser system for fitting to airliners http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/02/27/israel-to-outfit-passenger-planes-with-laser-anti-missile-defense-system/ .


MHalblaub has indicated: The last position of the aircraft was just 10 km away from the Russian border. The US or some other NATO members probably did detect the search radar of the Buk missile system that shot down MH17. An E-3 AWACS and E-8 Joint STAR had eastern Ukrainian airspace under surveillance. Even some infrared tracks were recognized. Therefore it is likely the military and top politicians knew exactly where the missile was fired from.
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OTHER INTERESTING LINKS

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2696847/They-shouldnt-f-g-flying-There-war-going-Ukraine-intelligence-officials-release-phone-calls-claim-PROVES-Russia-shot-Flight-MH17.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/world/europe/rebels-in-ukraine-crowed-of-past-attacks-but-deny-this-one.html?_r=0

http://intelnews.org/2014/07/18/01-1517/ Ukraine rebels ‘admit downing Malaysia plane’ in phone intercepts
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Pete

"Do It For Denmark!" I'm in Love With A Danish Goddess

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I was going to write on submarines again today but got distracted. The lovely lass above in this clean youtube (sorry guys) is something that my Swedish and German commenters* can agree on: 

Denmark is half-way between Sweden and Germany!! 

Background

I have it on good authority that Eurosclerotic means "some Danish sex Goddess enjoying a vein".

To that end not all Danish women are like Birgitte Nyborg, the Prime Minister on Borgen. Although Birgitte (below on right) is very nice and admittedly more my age - and she looks a lot better than a real forgotten ex-Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.. 

Some very intelligent women are supporting actresses in Borgen, for example Katrine Fønsmark played by a real Birgitte,that is Birgitte Hjort Sørensen (below at left). 

Confusing? Doesn't matter. They are both good-looking and great actresses, with a lot of heart.

And what is the "Do It For Denmark!" campaign? 

"Denmark faces a crisis. Our birthrate is at a 27 year low. At Spies we’re concerned. Fewer Danes mean fewer to support the ageing population - and tragically, fewer holidaying with us. Research shows that Danes have 46% more sex [think of that!] on city holidays and since more sex equals the chance of more kids, we are prescribing a romantic city holiday to save Denmark’s future."see http://www.spies.dk/do-it-for-denmark .

If I hadn't had that operation I would help make babies. But I'll still help :-)



Above are Katrine and Birgitte (Borgen) looking lovely for viewers on a cold, cold, Canberra or Adelaide Winter's day :p .

As they say at the Tour de France - "Now dry your eyes with a Kangaroo".

* not to mention viewers from the US, UK, India, China and Russia.

Pete

India's Amazing (future) 24 Submarines

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Hindustan Shipyard (Visakhapatnam) The boom-gate is open but the guards are asleep.
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Hindustan Shipyard (Visakhapatnam) looking uncluttered and efficient. Note the submarine under construction below the tramp steamer.
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Mazagon Dock (Mumbai). Not much rust in sight. Note the new sub behind the hulk. 
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Photo of the profile of a typical submarine Project Manager, selected by the Ministry and DRDO. Open-eyed with amazement at the submarine progress.
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Please excuse the following immoderate words, for I do like India, but suspect almost all of its military  project managers.*

Rajat Pandit of the Times of India has reported a new day dawning in Indian submarine construction and purchasing. In Pandit's Brave New World there will be none of the chronic inertia, corruption and gross inefficiency that has bedeviled India's military-industrial complex since India's Russian submarines began to rust prematurely.

Like Little Annie Fanny (photo above) one waits with baited breath (having prudently bought some scuba gear) for India's long awaited:

- 6 Scorpenes, 

- 6 Project-75India SSKs (as yet unselected) and 

- 6, yes 6 SSNs** 

...to pour off the sub-continental production lines. Eat your heart out WWII Germany, and Cold War Russia and "Uncle", for India will launch subs at a pace unseen in mass production history.

* the Agni nuclear missile project is an exception, which is genuinely efficient, as it has been given top priority.

** this is not counting the promised 6operational Arihant class SSBNs that have been "around the corner" since 2009.

Be amazed.

The miraculous Times of India, July 14, 2014, article follows http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Move-to-fast-track-two-submarine-projects-gathers-steam/articleshow/38342676.cms :

"Move to fast-track two submarine projects gathers steam"


NEW DELHI: There is finally some urgency [HAHAHAHA..:-) ] being shown to rescue India's ageing and depleting underwater combat arm. The approval for two long-pending projects, one for construction of six advanced diesel-electric submarines and the other for six nuclear-powered ones, is well on the cards now.

Sources said the finance ministry has asked the defence ministry to "club" the separate projects to "draft a single note" for the requisite nod from Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). "The two projects have been languishing for long in the files being exchanged between the two ministries. The government seems serious about fast-track approvals this time," said a source.

The approvals, when they come, will not be a day too soon since India is down to just 13 old diesel-electric submarines, barely half of which are operational at any given time, and a single nuclear-propelled submarine INS Chakra on lease from Russia without any long-range missiles.

It takes at least seven to eight years for the first submarine to roll out once its construction project actually gets underway. The two projects will together entail a cost of well over Rs 1 lakh crore spread over 10-15 years.

'Project-75India' for the six conventional submarines, armed with both land-attack missiles and air-independent propulsion (AIP) for greater underwater endurance, was granted "acceptance of necessity'' in November 2007, as was reported earlier by TOI.

But the global tender to select the foreign collaborator for it is yet to be even issued. As per the existing plan, the first two submarines will be imported to save time, while three will be constructed at Mazagon Docks (Mumbai), and the sixth at Hindustan Shipyard (Visakhapatnam).

The project to build the six SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines, usually without nuclear-tipped missiles), in turn, is to be undertaken at the secretive ship-building centre (SBC) at Vizag. India's first three SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines with nuclear ballistic missiles) are already being built at the SBC to complete the country's nuclear weapons triad - the capability to fire nukes from land, air and underwater. The expertise gained in the construction of the SSBNs will help the SSN project, said sources.

The first SSBN, the 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, is slated to go for extensive sea trials soon after its miniature 83 mw pressurized light-water reactor, which went "critical" in August last year, attains "full power" in another month or so. The second, INS Aridhaman, is also to be "launched into water" soon with its hull and basic structure ready.

China, incidentally, has five nuclear and 51 conventional submarines. It is poised to induct up to five JIN-class SSBNs, with their new 7,400-km range JL-2 missiles, over the next few years.

India, however, has miserably failed in this arena. It was in 1999 that the CCS had approved a 30-year submarine-building plan, which envisaged induction of 12 new submarines by 2012, followed by another dozen by 2030.

But 15 years later, not a single new submarine has been inducted because of politico-bureaucratic apathy. The first programme, Project-75, was finalized only in 2005 to build six French Scorpene submarines at MDL. It's already running over four years behind schedule, with the first Scorpene now slated for delivery by November 2016 and the other five rolling out thereafter every 8-10 months. Moreover, the Rs 1,800 crore contract to buy 98 heavy-weight torpedoes to arm the submarines is also yet to be inked."

Pete

Tamil Refugees: High Court of Australia Challenge

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Tamil refugees have a hard time, not only in Australia.


It would appear that the High Court of Australia shares concerns that the Government of Prime Minister Abbott has no right to make an inherently human rights issue (Tamil refugees) a matter of martial law. The Australia Government is fortunate that the Indian Government has agreed that India's representatives in Australia will process the Tamils regarding refugee status and possible repatriation to India.

Many of the 157 Tamil refugees concerned fled from Sri Lanka to refugee camps in India before boarding a boat with the hope of coming to Australia. The High Court of Australia had ordered the Abbott Government to pull its head in and allow the Tamils to be processed on the Australian mainland.

"The case in the High Court really boils down to two simple propositions: one is that the Australian Government cannot, could not intercept this boat and return them to a place where they wouldn't be safe [Sri Lanka], and secondly that there needed to be a fair decision-making process around that,"http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-26/lawyer-questions-legality-of-returning-asylum-seekers-to-india/5625866.

The High Court is concerned about Australia's military forces holding Tamil refugees in international waters under quasi marrtial law, at gunpoint and in secrecy under so-called Operation Sovereign Borders.

The more formal conditions for martial law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_aid_to_the_civil_power#Australiaare:

- Defence Assistance to the Civil Community (DACC) in matters of emergency, and

- Defence Force Aid to the Civil Power (DACP) usually to handle invasion and violence.

None of these conditions are present in Abbott's orchestrated refugee "crisis". Australia's refugee responsibilities are mild and routine by international standards.

Immigration Minister Morrison and Abbott can't hide behind the "righteousness" of khaki or naval uniforms in conditions of secrecy. They need to obey the precedent ruled by the High Court of processing refugees on land not on a Australian military run prison ships.

Background Links


Pete

Air Independent Propulsion - A Game Changer?

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Hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell system.
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MESMA closed-cycle steam turbine
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Stirling-cycle heat engine with external combustion
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Closed-cycle diesel engine?
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Diesel-electric engine for submarine, which can use any of the AIP technologies above.

If-when Australia chooses an air independent propulsion (AIP) system for the long awaited Future Submarine Australia will have several technologies (above) to decide on. Perhaps Australia might choose no AIP if Lithium-ion battery technology is considered adequate.

The following is an excellent article, dated January 29, 2013, by Michael Raska, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. It has been republished by Eurasia Reviewhttp://www.eurasiareview.com/29012013-submarine-trends-in-asia-pacific-air-independent-propulsion-a-game-changer-analysis/ :


SUBMARINE TRENDS IN ASIA PACIFIC: AIR-INDEPENDENT PROPULSION A GAME CHANGER? – ANALYSIS

JANUARY 29, 2013


By RSIS
The contending strategic realities of the Asia-Pacific region compel states to adopt innovations of their rivals. This is the case for new classes of conventional submarine designs, which incorporate an array of innovative technologies in order to maximise their survivability and lethality in diverse maritime operations.
By Michael Raska
WHILE EUROPE and North America remain key submarine markets, China’s ongoing military modernisation coupled with contending international relations in the Asia-Pacific will increasingly drive submarine procurement in the region over the next decade. In 2011, the total submarine market in Asia-Pacific is estimated at US$4.4 billion, and for the next decade, submarine expenditures are projected to US$46 billion. 
With changing strategic realities, Asian navies aim to become increasingly flexible, and capable of varying mission profiles: from countering traditional coastal defence missions to protecting sea lanes and communication lines. Simultaneously, submarines are increasingly valuable strategic resource for both electronic and signal intelligence. To enhance the varying operational capabilities, increase submerged endurance and stealth, installing viable Air-independent propulsion systems is thus becoming a strategic necessity.
Advantages of AIP systems
Designed to enhance the performance of modern conventional (diesel-electric) submarines AIP is a key emerging technology that essentially provides a “closed cycle” operation through a low-power electrical source supplementing the battery, which may extend the submarine’s underwater endurance up to two weeks or more.
AIP systems close the endurance gap between nuclear and conventional submarines, and mitigate increasing risks of detection caused by advanced anti-submarine warfare technologies – from modern electro-optical systems and surface radars to magnetic sensors, active and passive sonars, and airborne surveillance radars. Advanced AIP technologies thus promise significant operational advantages and tactical flexibility.
In theory, there are four primary AIP designs currently available: (1) closed-cycle diesel engines; (2) closed-cycle steam turbines; (3) Stirling-cycle heat engines with external combustion, and (4) hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells. Each provides a different solution with particular advantages as well as limitations in relation to performance, safety, and cost factors.
Since the early years of the Cold War, while major naval powers shifted to nuclear propulsion, smaller navies – particularly in Europe (Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy and France) continued to develop and rely on conventional diesel-electric submarine fleets, given their lower cost and operational relevance for coastal defence. Traditionally, however, these submarines were highly vulnerable to various types of sensors – acoustic, visual, thermal and air – particularly when running on engines.

AIP systems in Asian navies

On the other hand, when running on batteries, these submarines became very quiet and difficult to detect, yet their battery capacity, discharge rate, and indiscretion rate (the ratio of diesel running time to total running time) substantially limited their underwater endurance. To overcome these baseline limitations, naval innovation in propulsion technologies over the past two decades has shifted toward AIP systems.
There is a variance, however, in the procurement of AIP systems in select Asian navies. For example, the only AIP steam-turbine system currently available is the French “MESMA” (Module d’Energie Sous-Marine Autonome) module, operational on Pakistan Navy’s two Agosta 90-B class submarines.
Swedish-Kockum designed Stirling AIP technology is installed on Singapore Navy’s two Archer–class submarines, and Japan’s new Soryu-class submarines. The Chinese PLA Navy’s Type 041 Yuan and Type 043 Qing class submarines are also reportedly using Stirling technology. Meanwhile, the Republic of Korea Navy has ordered nine Type 214 submarines with German HDW AIP fuel cell technologies. Three first batch models of the new Son Won-Il class had entered service since 2007, and six second batch models will enter service from 2012.

Limitations and constraints

Notwithstanding the diverse AIP technologies, the overall effectiveness of each system will depend on how well it is integrated with other critical systems that ensure optimal submarine functions: power systems, sensors systems, safety systems, navigation systems, command, control, and communication systems, weapons systems, and climate control systems. In this context, any critical failure of an AIP during a combat mission or contested areas will mitigate survivability factors as well as tactical options.
Indeed, each AIP system design comes with an array of technological limitations, vulnerabilities, and risks, particularly in submerged operations – from the specific acoustic signatures produced by select AIP systems in specific operating regimes, to technical vulnerabilities in storing oxidizer/fuel, as well as their maintenance regime. At the same time, new anti-submarine warfare sensor technologies may provide viable AIP countermeasures.
Ultimately, AIP-related technological innovation and breakthroughs may not guarantee operational success – strategy, operational concepts, tactical development, leadership, training, and morale will continue to play as important role as emerging technologies and their operational capabilities.
Michael Raska is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

Air independent propulsion (AIP) Technologies and Selection

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If Australia selected an air independent propulsion (AIP) technology for conventional diesel-electric submarines it would be on a new-construction Future Submarine rather than being retrofitted to the current Collins subs.

Much of the following information draws on Australian Dr Carlo Kopp’s article originally published in Defence Today, December 2010. Much information is also drawn from Edward C. Whitman’s article with some major updating.

Some AIP Attributes When Selecting

In assessing the merits of any AIP system several factors, which include potential weaknesses, are important, including:

• Submerged endurance achievable with an Australian specified profile, comprising specific segments of submerged operation at specific speeds and depths, representative of real missions;
• Suitability of the AIP to Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean operating environment as distinct from the North Atlantic-Baltic operating environments of most AIP builders;
• Acoustic signature contribution produced by the AIP system in specific operating regimes, but especially at varying speeds and depths;
• Vulnerability of the AIP systems (especially hydrogen or oxygen storage) to near miss explosive or implosive effects that otherwise not lethal to the submarine or its systems;
• Various failure modes of the AIP system and its oxidiser/fuel storage, and to what extent are these repairable if a failure or battle damage arise in a contested patrol area;
• Failover modes and internal redundancy in the AIP system, and what ‘casualty’ modes exist if a catastrophic failure arises to get the boat out of danger;
• Replenishment options (if any) of oxidiser and fuel from a tender when operating at large distances from a friendly port;
• Up-front costs of AIP systems in dollar amounts and as a portion of the total cost of the sub;
• Lifecycle cost of operating and maintaining the AIP system, at a representative operational-tempo.

In the final analysis, any AIP system will need to be subjected to some representative and tough testing before it even makes a shortlist (which may rule out the Russian and Spanish technologies which are only at a developmental stage). This is because AIP is becoming a mission critical single point of failure for the submarine in a combat environment. If the AIP system fails for whatever reason while the submarine is operating in a contested area, it may not have the option of snorkelling home.

The strength of AIP includes it being very quiet. More than two weeks submerged with a submarine immobile or moving slowly. AIP extends operating range but cannot drive the submarine at anything over low speed for medium to long ranges. Can AIP be seen as a form of backup if specific portions of the diesel-electric drive-train fail?

AIP Technologies

These are arranged by what I consider the likelihood that Australia might select a foreign company and/or submarine which utilises that technology.


Hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell system. (Diagram courtesy of  http://webberswarships.ca/styled-9/index.html )



See Type 212/214 Fuel cell PEM AIP on bottom submarine (diagram courtesy of this site)

Fuel cell systems – German PEM

Fuel cell - PEM AIP is likely if Germany’s TKMS is selected to build Australia’s Future Submarine.

Operation - Fuel cell based AIP systems typically employ a hydrogen oxygen fuel cell to generate electrical current, which then powers the boat’s systems. The principal issue in operating any fuel cell based system is the manner in which the oxygen and hydrogen are stored (physically and chemically) prior to introduction into the fuel cell. The available technology is the Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM)cell used in the Siemens SINAVY AIP fuel cell modules.

The oxygen supply is stored as LOX in the PEM system. The hydrogen propellant supply in the PEM system is described as via “reformer gas” in some documents, or solid metal hydride in others. The former scheme typically involves the decomposition of a hydrocarbon fuel to generate hydrogen. The fuel cell can operate by recharging the subs batteries or in the case of the PEM directly feed the electric motor. The fuel cell produces distilled water as a waste product.

Strengths - A virtual absence of moving parts, except small pumps, which makes this AIP exceptionally quiet in terms of machinery noise and cheaper and easier to maintain compared to other AIP technologies. The PEM fuel cell only operates at 80 ° C reducing heat signature and cooling problems. PEM is relatively efficient 70% of energy (on what measure? Of LOX?), because the fuel cell directly feeding the electric motor. PEM has been successfully incorporated into many German Navy and export submarines.

Weaknesses - Fuel cells have a relatively high up front cost. Fuel cells are relatively difficult and expensive to retrofit or cannot be retrofitted? Does PEM AIP generally produce less average power than Stirling or MESMA? Is there less “dash speed” in an emergency? The process of storing and replacing on board hydrogen and LOX involves significant safety hazards.

More Details - Fuel cells are employed in the German HDW built Type 212 (with nine 30-50 kW fuel cell units) and two 120 kW units are fitted on Dolphin class, on internationally marketed Type 214 subs and on some Type 209 mod subs.

It is unknown whether the two Type 218SG subs being built in Germany will utilise fuel cell PEM or Stirling engine AIP. If it is Stirling (an AIP Singapore is already familiar with in the two Archer class) then that might be one reason that the new submarines have been called "218" rather than "214".

Indian DRDO Fuel Cell - A March 2014 report indicated DCNS might install a DRDO developed AIP based on hydrogen fuel cell technology on one [or more] of the six Scorpenes beinge built at Mazagaon Dock under Indian Navy Project 75. This was in preference to an older version of French MESMA being offered for the Project 75 Scorpenes. The DRDO fuel cell might be also be built into the second line of Indian future conventional submarines under a different project, known as P75I.
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Now Saab and FMV's Stirling AIP system.

Stirling-cycle heat engine with external combustion

 Stirling Engine

Stirling AIP is another strong contender for Australia’s Future Submarine if Japan’s Soryu drive-train or a direct purchase from Sweden (Saab) is selected.

In the Stirling cycle, heat from an outside source is transferred to an enclosed quantity of working fluid - generally an inert gas - and drives it through a repeating sequence of thermodynamic changes. By expanding the gas against a piston and then drawing it into a separate cooling chamber for subsequent compression, the heat from external combustion can be converted to mechanical work and then, in turn, to electricity. Like MESMA, this approach has an advantage over internal combustion systems, such as the closed cycle diesel (below) in that the combustion processes can be kept separate from those that actually convert heat to mechanical work. This provides significant flexibility in dealing with exhaust products and controlling noise.

The Swedish developed Stirling system employs LOX as the oxidiser and diesel as the fuel, which are combusted at a pressure higher than that of the surrounding water mass permitting the exhaust to be directly vented to sea. The Stirling engine is coupled to a generator that feeds into the boats’ primary electrical system.

Strengths - Stirling engine are relatively simple and less hazardess in that they just use diesel and oxygen with Stirling engines running on liquid oxygen and diesel oil to turn a generator to produce electricity to charge the sub's batteries. Stirling technology has been widely used by several navies including Sweden’s (current Södermanland and Gotland class), Singapore’s (two Archer class), Japan’s (Soryu class) and some Chinese PLAN SSKs.

Weaknesses – Its moving parts can contribute to noise. The Stirling engines operate at a pressure of 20 bars, which limits the submarine’s depth capability to 200 meters, unless an exhaust gas pressure intensifier mechanism is used.As with other AIP systems that burn LOX and diesel, the LOX supply is the principal constraint to achievable endurance.

More Details -On Sweden’s Gotland class subs there are two 75 kW Stirling engines for propulsion or charging batteries. The endurance of the 1,500-tonne boats is around 14 days at 5 knots (5.8 mph; 9.3 km/h). Japan’s Soryus (of the size and tonnage expected for Australia’s Future Submarine) utilise four 75 kW Kawasaki Kockums V4-275R Stirling engines
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MESMA closed-cycle steam turbine

Closed cycle steam turbine - French "MESMA"

Closed cycle steam turbine AIP (French "MESMA") is likely if France’s DCNS is selected to build Australia’s Future Submarine.

Closed cycle steam turbine systems could be compared to nuclear systems, in that heat is used to generate steam, which via a turbine or turbo generator charges the batteries that power the electric motor. Stored oxygen allows the fuel to burn creating the heat.

DCNS in France offer the MESMA (Module d’Energie Sous-Marine Autonome) system in a lengthened Agosta or Scorpene class sub, requiring the insertion of a hull section about 8.3 metre long, weighing around 305 tonnes. The MESMA system burns ethanol, using stored LOX as the oxidiser. The propellant mix is burned at 60 atmospheres at up to 700 ° C, which imply a need for seawater cooling. DCNS claim up to three times the submerged endurance of the basic diesel-electric Scorpene class, or around 20 days.

Strengths – Relatively high output power is available. The design permits relatively easy? retrofitting into existing submarines by adding an extra hull section-plug.

Weaknesses - The hazards (like Fuel cells and Stirling) of storing and handling the liquid oxygen (LOX). While the MESMA may provide higher power output, its net efficiency might be the lowest (estimated at. 25%) as its rate of oxygen consumption is higher. The MESMA has significant moving parts, which may radiate detectable noise. Ultimately, the maintenance and crew training requirements of the MESMA steam turbine system are significant - adding tocost. The burning process yields exhaust carbon dioxide which needs to be expelled behind the sub at any depth perhaps making it vulnerable to advanced airborne and ASW ship sniffing sensors?

Offered by the French DCNS. MESMA has a relatively small customer base having only been retrofitted into some Pakistani Agosta class subs.
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The Spanish S-80's AIP - known (in Spanish) as Propulsion Independiente de aire. 

Spanish Bio-ethanol (Closed cycle steam turbine?)

Though Spain’s Bio-ethanol AIP technology is not fully tested and of course hasn’t been used in practice Australia has a counter-intuitive purchasing history of untried military technology. This would be in the context of Australia selecting the not fully tested or even deployed Navantia S-80 Isaac Peral class submarine.

The S-80 AIP technology under development is purportedly “completely different” from MESMA. The S-80's AIP system is based on a bioethanol-processor consisting of a reaction chamber and several intermediate Coprox reactors, that will transform the BioEtOH into high purity hydrogen. The output feeds a series of fuel cells. The Reformator is fed with bioethanol as fuel, and oxygen (stored as LOX) generating hydrogen and carbon dioxide as subproducts. The produced hydrogen and more oxygen is fed to the fuel cells.

The bioethanol-processor also produces a stream of highly concentrated carbon dioxide and other trace gases that are not burned completely during combustion. This gas flow is mixed with sea water in one or more ejector venturi scrubber and then through a CO2 Removal System and whose purpose is to dissolve the "bubbles" of CO2 in water to undetectable levels.

The oxygen and fuel flow rates are directly determined by the demand for power. The AIP power in the S-80 submarine is at least 300 kW. A permanent-magnet electric motor moves a fixed propeller of a special design, that doesn't create cavitations at high speed.

Weakness – Sounds highly complex. Cost unknown and cannot currently be estimated. Undeveloped. Unused even by the Spanish Navy. This problematic formula of claims may increase the chances of Australia selecting it.
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Closed-cycle diesel engine (Diagram courtesy of http://webberswarships.ca/styled-9/index.html )

Closed cycle diesel (CCD) systems

Australia almost definitely won’t buy this AIP system.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_13/propulsion.htmindicates “CCD systems have been developed by a number of firms in Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, and a few other countries. However, except for a 300-horsepower demonstration system refitted onto the German Navy's ex-U 1 in [1992-] 1993, no modern CCD systems have entered naval service. England's Marconi Marine recently acquired CCD pioneer Carlton Deep Sea Systems and is marketing a CCD retrofit package for existing conventional submarines, such as South Korea's nine Type 209s. Although one key advantage of CCD systems is their relatively easy backfit into existing submarine engineering plants, there have been no takers. Despite the additional supply complication of needing regular replenishment of cryogenic oxygen and inert gas, there are logistics advantages in retaining standard diesel engines and using normal diesel fuel.”
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Russian Kristall-27E AIP as it may appear on a yet to be developed Russian Amur-Lada-Kalina conventional submarine. (Sourced from here

Russian Kristall-27E AIP

Australia definitely won’t buy Russian.


The Kalina Class submarines would be fitted with an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau expected the Kalina design to be completed by 2017 and perhaps the first Kalina to be fitted with AIP by 2018.

From now until 2018 the new AIP system may be tested on the only operational submarine (the St Petersburg) of Russia’s undeveloped Fourth Generation Lada class (the Ladas were intended to replace the existing Kilo class). Russia is far behind Western countries in fully developing and actually deploying AIP systems. Russia has been talking about its untested Kristall-27E AIP for at least a decade. 

Kristall is described as a system with alkali matrix electrolyte, intermetallid storage of hydrogen, cryogenic storage of oxygen and a low-temperature electrochemical generator.  See Kristall-27E AIP described in great detail here and here.

Strengths – None verifiable as yet.

Weaknesses – Its Russian - unpopular with the Australian military. All of this Russian originated description appears to be marketing claims in place of full development and deployment. It appears that Russia is not developing AIP for its own submarine corps but instead may develop it if foreign customers places orders for AIP submarines. The risk appears to lie with customers during a lengthy development phase. This may explain why customers have restricted their purchases to non-AIP Kilos - that are less expensive and less technically risky than AIP Amurs-Ladas. It will be interesting if the Kalinas sell - though we are talking years of development.
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Nuclear reactor ("AIP") on submarine (Source - Excellent explanation of nuclear technology)

Nuclear Propulsion

While politically unpopular with Australia’s previous (Labor) Government nuclear power is the ultimate AIP as it presents no restrictions on submerged time, range or operation at a sub’s maximum speed.

Arguments like “we couldn’t train Australian nuclear technicians-engineers (or hire US-UK personnel) within 20 years to operate or maintain submarine reactors” appear to be poorly argued, but current, conventional wisdom.

For the usual safety reasons such Australian SSNs could be based at Fremantle which US SSGNs and SSNs already regularly visit.

Conclusion

Using any of the AIP technologies would involve lengthy selection processes. Extensive foreign and local training would be required for the technicians, engineers, officers, crew and officials required to maintain, use, administer and repair these technologies. All this takes years and in many cases decades. AIP technologies need to interact with the complete submarine weapons system - so can't only be seen or assessed in isolation.

Sources Used Include


Edward C. Whitman’s article http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_13/propulsion.htm 

The Submarine Research Center reference on AIP and U31 at http://adjunct.diodon349.com/Uboats/answers_to_questions_about_the_u_31.htm




Pete
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