Poor Putin is nonplussed that his bold plan to invade Ukraine (in 3? days) thus demoralizing and disuniting NATO has failed.
Now that Sweden and Finland have promised laws that will "crackdown" on Kurdish militants Turkey has lifted its opposition. It is also possible that Sweden and Finland, under NATO intelligence sharing agreements, will also regularly pass on intelligence to Turkey regarding militant Kurdish activities.
When Sweden joins NATO this will end 200 years of non-alignment.
When Finland joins NATO this will reject Soviet/Russian/Putin hardline-esque pressure for 77 years (since WWII) that has kept Finland "Finlandized" ie. forcibly neutral.
With Finland NATO's northern border with Russia will expand greatly (see map below). Putin was/is specifically opposed to NATO bordering Russia's heartland, hence his Ukraine fiasco. The Baltic will become a proverbial NATO surrounded "lake" making Russian Baltic Fleet activities more difficult.
Submarine wise:
- Sweden's well established submarine corps will be a significant formal asset for NATO. Informally those subs have helped NATO for years. Sweden's Gotland-class subs should last until about 2030? Sweden's 2 Sodermanland-class subs are due to be replaced by 2 x A26 Blekinge-class in 2027-28. Two (and maybe 3?) additional Blekinges are planned to replace the Gotlands around 2030.
Strategic Gotland island itself (in the Baltic) is believed to be at risk from the Russians.
- For Finland I don't know whether its long and severe Winter months ice-in its navy? See the Soviet-Finnish 1939-40 Winter War. Might this marginalize any Finnish submarine corps option?
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