PETE COMMENT
As foreshadowed in my previous post only the US can call the shots on AUKUS Virginia availability, while passive part-time Defence Minister Marles can only nod in agreement. Note Congress is very worried that Australia might stress "Australian Virginia sovereignty" in not agreeing to stand "shoulder to shoulder with the US" in pursuit of US interests (like defending Taiwan) in the Indo-Pacific.
Note also, the article below points out the US offer may be cancelled if the US cannot lift Virginia production to 2 per year - something I think the US will fall short of.
Furthermore the Virginia offer is a Biden policy - something Trump may cancel if he is voted in as President in 12 months time. Trump is pulling ahead in the polls.
ARTICLE
On November 9, 2023 Defence Correspondent Andrew Greene for Australian government owned ABC News reported:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-09/aukus-submarine-sales-timelines-revealed/103083780
“First newly built nuclear-powered submarine under AUKUS likely to be sold in 2038, US admiral reveals”
Australia will be sold its first new American nuclear-powered submarine in 2038, according to a senior US naval officer who has also revealed that initial sales of second-hand Virginia-class boats will likely take place in 2032 and 2035.
Key points:
- US Navy personnel have laid out when they think the first nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered to Australia
- The first newly constructed boat under the AUKUS deal is expected to be sold in 2038
- Second-hand Virginia class submarines could be sold in 2032 and 2035
During a separate media event in Sydney, the visiting commander of the US Pacific fleet also assured Australians that this country will maintain full sovereignty over the American technology when it eventually comes into service here.
Speaking in Washington, the US commander of submarine forces, Vice Admiral Bill Houston, provided a provisional timeline for transferring Virginia-class submarines to Australia under the AUKUS partnership.
According to US publication Breaking Defense, Vice Admiral Houston said planned US sales of "in-service submarines" to Australia are expected in 2032 and 2035, while the 2038 sale will be a newly constructed Block VII version of the Virginia-class.
The newly constructed Block VII submarine will not carry the Virginia Payload Module, the mid-body section equipped on certain boats in the fleet that increases its missile capacity.
Under the AUKUS agreement, the United States will sell at least three, and up to five, Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, before the United Kingdom will then jointly construct a new SSN-AUKUS submarine fleet with Australia.
Defence Minister Richard Marles has not yet commented on the new details of the proposed "optimal pathway" for nuclear-powered submarines, but earlier this week he expressed optimism the project still enjoyed broad political support in the US.
"There is legislation which is going through the US Congress as we speak, legislation which goes to reducing the export control regime as it applies between Australia and America," Mr Marles said on Nov 7, 2023.
"[It is] legislation which will enable the sale of the Virginias but importantly legislation which will enable the provision of the Australian contribution to the American industrial uplift," he added.
US officials insist the annual production rate of Virginia-class submarines needs to increase from the current level of 1.2 vessels to well above 2 per year, before transfers to Australia can occur.
"It is going to be important for the US to be able to increase its rate of production in order to enable there to be the space for Virginias to be transferred to Australia," Mr Marles told reporters at the International Maritime Exposition in Sydney.
US Pacific fleet commander talks up AUKUS partnership in Sydney visit
During a visit to Sydney, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet has warned of increasing Chinese military aggression in the region and talked up the importance of the AUKUS partnership for increasing joint "combat capability".
Speaking to reporters at the Indo-Pacific Sea Power conference, Admiral Samuel Paparosaid "to the extent that AUKUS increases the net industrial base of the three countries, it increases the net combat capability of altering countries together".
The US admiral also revealed Australian assets were targeted by the Chinese military as part of hundreds of dangerous intercepts conducted in the South China Sea during the past two years.
"They are increasingly provocative and it's deeply concerning; at times they've hazarded themselves and hazarded people in vessels and aircraft they've interacted with."
Critics of the AUKUS partnership warn it could lock Australia into a future US war with China over Taiwan, but Admiral Paparo [while visiting Sydney] brushed aside the concerns.
"Sovereignty is the expression of human dignity at the state level. This free will of the nation are our first principles that on mutual respect are the first principles of our alliance. Without that it's not an alliance. It's what the other guys have," he said.
Admiral Paparo also said he had "complete faith" in the Australian government over the recent decision not to terminate a Chinese-owned company's lease of Darwin Port.