Shawn Chung drew my attention to the CRS Report below, which itemizes China's naval threat and then suggests US responses to this threat. Reading excerpts of this very recent report there will be increasing strains on the USN Virginia force. I conclude there will be increasing USN demand for more than currently the projected numbers of 66 Virginias. Hence there will be fewer or no Virginias available for Australia's RAN.
Congressional Research Service (CRS) report RL33153:
China
Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities - Background and Issues
for Congress, October 19, 2023, at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153/275 .
Page 18 indicates:
"Submarines Overview
China
has been steadily modernizing its submarine force, and most of its submarines
are now built to relatively modern Chinese and Russian designs.43
Qualitatively, China’s newest submarines might not be as capable as Russia’s
newest submarines,44 but compared to China’s earlier submarines, which were
built to antiquated designs, its newer submarines are much more capable.45 An
August 2023 Naval War College Report on China’s submarines states
After nearly 50 years since the first Type 091 SSN was
commissioned, China is finally on the verge of producing world-class
nuclear-powered submarines. This report argues that the propulsion, quieting,
sensors, and weapons capabilities of the Type 095 SSGN could approach Russia’s
Improved Akula I class SSN. The Type 095 will likely be equipped with a pump
jet propulsor, a freefloating horizontal raft, a hybrid propulsion system, and
12-18 vertical launch system tubes able to accommodate anti-ship and land-attack
cruise missiles. China’s newest SSBN, the Type 096, will likewise see
significant improvements over its predecessor, with the potential to compare
favorably to Russia’s Dolgorukiy [Borei] class SSBN in the areas of propulsion,
sensors, and weapons, but more like the Improved Akula I in terms of quieting.
If this analysis is correct, the introduction of the Type 095 and Type 096
would have profound implications for U.S. undersea security.[46 – from Christopher
P. Carlson and Howard Wang, A Brief Technical History of PLAN Nuclear
Submarines Nuclear Submarines, China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), U.S.
Naval War College, August 2023, p. 1.]
A
September 2023 Naval War College report on China’s submarine industrial base
states
In recent years, China’s naval industries have made tremendous progress supporting the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force, both through robust commitment to research and development (R&D) and the upgrading of production infrastructure at the country’s three submarine shipyards…. Nevertheless, China’s submarine industrial base continues to suffer from surprising weaknesses in propulsion (from marine diesels to fuel cells) and submarine quieting. Closer ties with Russia could provide opportunities for China to overcome these enduring technological limitations by exploiting political and economic levers to gain access to Russia’s remaining undersea technology secrets.[47 from - Sarah Kirchberger, China’s Submarine Industrial Base: State-Led Innovation with Chinese Characteristics State-Led Innovation with Chinese Characteristics, China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), U.S. Naval War College, September 2023, p. 1.]