Mr Xiangmo Huang with Vice-Chancellor of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Professor Ross Milbourne in December 2013. Mr Xiangmo Huang, from China donated the $1.8 million in order to establish the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI).
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Bob Carr with UTS Vice-Chancellor Professor Ross Milbourne in April 2014. Mr Carr became the Director of the independent
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Survey Reports Lack of Australian Public Interest in Japan's Disputes or in Japan's Point of View.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) on January 6, 2015 reported results of a Survey that indicates most Australians would reject siding with Japan and the US against China should a conflict in the East China Sea arise. This may underline the need for Japan to lock in a defence relationship with Australia including by using a Soryu submarine deal.
Few Australian know about or care about several disputes in the East China Sea involving South Korea, China, Taiwan and Japan. Possibly the most dangerous Japan versus China dispute is over the Diaoyu Island chain in the East China Sea - a chain known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and the Diaoyu Islands in China. Taiwan also claims these islands, calling them the Diaoyutai Islands. Taiwan's capital, Taipei, is the closest capital city of the three countries to these islands, however as it has the weakest navy and weakest national strength Taiwan's claims are ignored. In this three-way contest might clearly makes right - so we will call them the Diaoyu Islands.
For the results of Australian Attitudes on ANZUS and the East China Sea see the six statistical Survey tables at http://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/ACRI%20Poll.pdf.
The Survey indicated that of "more than" 1,000 Australians [Surveyed] 71% would prefer to remain neutral should a conflict arise. Only 15 per cent of respondents said they supported backing a Japan-US alliance. 4% said Australia should back China and 9% were unsure.
From a slightly different angle the survey found should the US President call and ask the Australian Prime Minister to join in supporting Japan, 68% said Australia should declare itself neutral and not make a military contribution. Only 14% of those surveyed said Australian troops should join allies US and Japan in war while 17% were unsure.
Now it needs to be explained that the survey was commissioned and financed by the recently established Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology in Sydney (UTS). ACRI is Chinese financed. ACRI commissioned UMR Research to carry out the Survey (see UMR's website here).
The Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS) Treaty Does Not Cover Japan
In the ABC article of January 6, 2015 the Director of ACRI former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr is recorded as saying:
""The [Survey] confirms Australians overwhelmingly want their country to stay neutral,"...Mr Carr said as far as the public was concerned, Australia was not obliged under the Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS) treaty to make a commitment.""
The ANZUS treaty binds Australia and New Zealand, and, separately, Australia and the United States to co-operate on defence matters in the area of the Pacific Ocean.
The ANZUS treaty binds Australia and New Zealand, and, separately, Australia and the United States to co-operate on defence matters in the area of the Pacific Ocean.
Bob Carr added"We know that Australians overwhelmingly support the ANZUS treaty but this Survey confirms they do not want it invoked in conflict between China and Japan over the islands in the East China Sea," he said.
The ANZUS Treaty is open to interpretation mainly because is has hardly been used in a conflict. A lawyer or judge would say there is hardly any case law to provide guidance on when and where the treaty would apply in a conflict. A fairly authoritative commentary records / http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/adfafghanistan :
"Australia first committed military personnel to Afghanistan in October 2001 after the 11 September attacks on the World Trade Centre. Prime Minister John Howard invoked Article VI of the ANZUS Treaty in support of Australia’s involvement—the only time the Treaty has been invoked. The Australian Parliament supported the commitment on 17 September 2001.”
In the 2001 case the Treaty was interpreted as coming into force because a Party to the Treaty was attacked. This was even though the attack and response did not take place in the Pacific Ocean and the attackers were a terrorist group not a State.
The 2001 case underlines how flexible and unpredictable the ANZUS Treaty is. This may be an argument for Japan locking in a relationship with Australia using the Soryu submarine deal. In the case of the East China Sea perhaps ANZUS might be interpreted as coming into force only if US armed forces (which includes the US Navy) where attacked or especially if a US Base in the region was attacked. This means that if Japanese forces alone were attacked ANZUS probably would not come into force and Australian forces need not come to Japan’s aid.
Chinese Financial Influence in Australia Equating to Political Influence
The Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) was established in December 2013 with a grant of $1.8 million from the Founder and Chairman of the Yuhu Group, Mr XiangmoHuang, a citizen of China. Despite this direct funding ACRI is frequently described as "independent".
In December 2013 Prime Minister Abbott sent a congratulatory letter to praise the contribution Yuhu Group and its Chairman Huang Xiangmo made to the Australia-China relationship, business communications and social assistance.
In December 2013 Prime Minister Abbott sent a congratulatory letter to praise the contribution Yuhu Group and its Chairman Huang Xiangmo made to the Australia-China relationship, business communications and social assistance.
In February 2014 it was reported that "Annual financial disclosures published yesterday by the Australian Electoral Commission reveal that Shenzhen-based Yuhu Group and its chairman, Huang Xiangmo, donated $350,000 to the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in 2012-13, accounting for one-quarter of donations to the party's NSW branch." On other Chinese donors see here and here . Other mechanisms of Chinese economic power in Australia include the Australian Council for the Promotion of Peaceful Unification of China and the Australia China Business Council.
It was announced on April 30, 2014 that Australia's former Foreign Minister, the Hon Bob Carr, would lead ACRI.
On overall Australian Government assessment on the Australia-China economic relationship is http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/china/china_brief.html :
"The Australia-China economic and trade relationship continues to steadily expand. China is now Australia's largest two-way trading partner in goods and services (valued at almost A$160 billion in 2013-14), our largest goods export destination (A$100 billion in 2013-14), and our largest source of merchandise imports (A$50 billion in 2013-14). The Government is pursuing a number of initiatives to strengthen and diversify this relationship."
With economic power comes political power. China's Communist Party is considered adept at focussing both economic and political power within its partner countries.
Implications for Any Soryu Sale
The Guardian (Australian edition) reported January 6, 2015 that ACRI Director and former Foreign Minister Bob Carr said the [Survey] underlined the sensible strategic decision for Australia to make clear its intention to stay neutral.
“The ANZUS Treaty [a security pact between Australia and New Zealand and the United States] commits us to nothing more than consultation … and Australia should be making it known that it is very much disinclined to join any conflict should it break out.”
The Abbott government has raised the ire of Beijing with statements interpreted as supportive of Japan in the dispute, but Carr said the Abbot government had, in fact, been “impeccable neutral” in its approach to the dispute.
And he claimed the government had also “effectively corrected” the balance after Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s statements – early inhis prime ministership – that Japan was Australia’s “best friend in Asia”.
But according to Carr the long-delayed decision on Australia’s next submarine contract could also be seen as taking sides on regional security issues.
There has been a lot of speculation that the government may award the submarine contract – Australia’s biggest defence contract – to Japan’s Soryu class submarine without a tender or other competitive process, despite highly competitive potential alternatives, including from German company ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and French shipbuilder DCNS.
“If the government doesn’t go to tender it could be seen as a statement about its strategic direction,” Carr said."
Pete