Are the sinking fortunes of Prime Minister Abbott also sinking the Soryu?
The last week has presented a further example of Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott's lamentable political judgement. Abbott's influence in his own Liberal Party and in Australia has further declined.
Abbott has gone beyond the normal prime ministerial role to push a special relationship with Prime Minister Abe and with Abe the Soryu. Abbott's support for the Soryu has always been opposed by most in his own Party and by Defense officialdom . With Abbott's decline the Soryu's chances of selection has declined. If or when Abbott is removed by his Party from the prime ministerial position it is not clear whether Abbott's policy of "buy Soryu and build in Japan" will be maintained.
Abbott may have a loyal supporter in new Defense Minister Kevin Andrews. However Kevin Andrews is too new to Andrews' Defense portfolio, with no track record on defense issues, to have his own base of power to support a Soryu purchase.
Abbott has gone beyond the normal prime ministerial role to push a special relationship with Prime Minister Abe and with Abe the Soryu. Abbott's support for the Soryu has always been opposed by most in his own Party and by Defense officialdom . With Abbott's decline the Soryu's chances of selection has declined. If or when Abbott is removed by his Party from the prime ministerial position it is not clear whether Abbott's policy of "buy Soryu and build in Japan" will be maintained.
Abbott may have a loyal supporter in new Defense Minister Kevin Andrews. However Kevin Andrews is too new to Andrews' Defense portfolio, with no track record on defense issues, to have his own base of power to support a Soryu purchase.
There is powerful support in Abbott's own Party and defense officialdom for the build of part or all of the future submarine in Australia. After Japan Germany's TKMS probably has made the strongest future submarine bid. Germany supports "build in Australia" meaning that if Abbott goes the German bid may win. Japan may need to be flexible enough to counter with a genuine "part build in Australia" (not just submarine steel built in Australia) plan to defeat the German bid.
On another matter China is likely to be pragmatic over an Australian purchase of the future (conventional) submarine even if that submarine is likely to be superior to any Chinese conventional submarine. China would recognize that such an Australian submarine will be a second rate submarine compared to China's increasing numbers of SSNs. China would be much more concerned if Australia bought superior submarines, that is SSNs from the US, UK or France. The nuclear option was raised by the US Ambassador to Australia in 2012 http://www.afr.com/p/national/us_floats_nuclear_subs_option_uPMgRrev3KjNwBLfFxpdeO .
Background
Detail on Prime Minister Abbott's lamentable mistake is:
AsiaOne, January 28, 2015 reported http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/australian-pm-abbott-stands-move-knight-prince-philip-takes-criticism-chin :
MELBOURNE Australia - "Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said on Wednesday he stood by his controversial decision to award Britain's Prince Philip a knighthood and was taking the firestorm of criticism "on the chin". Several ministers have walked away from Mr Abbott's appointment of the nonagenarian Duke of Edinburgh to the ranks of the Order of Australia, MPs on all sides have mocked the move and the media condemned it severely."
The Australian, a major newspaper from Rupert Murdoch's powerful media empire, ran a highly critical editorial asking: "Tony Abbott is in office but is he prime minister?" http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/tony-abbott-is-in-office-but-is-he-prime-minister/story-e6frg71x-1227198890579 :
"The decision to turn a distant duke into a knight Down Under suggests a prime minister who is tone deaf or, worse, complacent in his power to push through a personal preference indifferent to the fact that it is bound to enrage and bewilder many," it said."
Pete