The Soryu class (at top) and Oyashio class (middle). Their main weapons are the Harpoon anti-ship missile and the Type 89 (Mk 48 very similar) torpedo.
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It is useful that Japan is publically providing Soryu Budget Estimates (below) as they have deep significance for future costings for Australia’s “Super Soryu” class (possible) future submarine. Becoming familiar with Japanese financial-military-industrial thinking is important.
Note that for most submarines exported worldwide the export price is often twice the price "charged" to the builder's own navy. Hence a US$500 million for German Navy TKMS-HDW 212 when downgraded to 214 may cost US$1 billion to a customer. As Australia may be Japan's first submarine customer necessary Japanese organisational changes and translation of millions of pages of design and "owners" manuals may represent substantial extra costs to Japan and maybe to Australia.
TKMS and DCNS cannot produce such future sub for Australia costings because their SSK submarine solutions are more theoretical than actual (noting Shortfin SSK would, in 2025, be very different from France's not yet launched Barracuda SSN).
Submarine Matters main Japanese source "S" has provided detailed comparitive figures for major parts of the Soryu program in Comments of early January 2016. Some further English translation has been done by Pete.
Japan calculates the price of its Soryu using cost accounting equation (1) GCIP (where GC = selling, general and administrative expenses, I = interest rate, P = profit ratio). As the Japanese Government has requested MHI and KHI to make nil profit in equations (1) MHI and KHI may go into the “red” depending on the circumstances.
Calculate price = overall cost + interest + profit + packaging & transport cost --- (1)
Overall cost = manufacturing cost + manufacturing cost * GC --- (2)
Manufacturing cost = direct material cost + processing cost + direct cost --- (3)
Interest = overall cost * I --- (4)
Profit = overall cost * P --- (5)
First year costs (design cost, jig & tool cost, testing cost, technical collaboration fee) belong to direct cost in equation (2)
SORYU TABLE (latest)
SS No. | Building No. | Pennant No. | Name/Namesake | LAB or LIB & AIP * | Laid Down | Laun -ched | Commi-ssioned | Built By |
16SS | 8116 | SS-501 | Sōryū (そうりゅう) / Blue Dragon Soryu Mark 1 | LAB + AIP | March 2005 | Dec 2007 | March 2009 | MHI |
17SS | 8117 | SS-502 | Unryū (うんりゅう) / Cloud Dragon | LAB + AIP | March 2006 | Oct 2008 | March 2010 | KHI |
18SS | 8118 | SS-503 | Hakuryū (はくりゅう) / White Dragon | LAB + AIP | Feb 2007 | Oct 2009 | March 2011 | MHI |
19SS | 8119 | SS-504 | Kenryū (けんりゅう) / Sword Dragon | LAB + AIP | March 2008 | Nov 2010 | March 2012 | KHI |
20SS | 8120 | SS-505 | Zuiryu (けんりゅう) / Sword Dragon | LAB + AIP | March 2009 | Oct 2011 | March 2013 | MHI |
22SS | 8122 | SS-506 | Kokuryū (こくりゅう) / Black Dragon | LAB + AIP | January 2011 | Oct 2013 | March 2014 | KHI |
23SS | 8123 | SS-507 | Jinryū (じんりゅう)/ Benevolent Dragon | LAB + AIP | Feb 2012 | Nov 2014 | March 2016? | MHI |
24SS | 8124 | SS-508 | ? | LAB + AIP | 2013 | 2015? | 2017 | KHI |
25SS | 8125 | SS-509 | ? | LAB + AIP | 2014 | 2016? | 2018 | MHI |
26SS | 8126 | SS-510 | ? | LAB + AIP | 2015 | 2017? | 2019 | KHI |
27SS | 8127 | SS-511 | Soryu Mark 2 | LIB only | 2016? | 2018? | 2020? | MHI |
28SS | 8128 | SS-512 | LIB only | 2017? | 2019? | 2021? | KHI | |
29SS | 8129 | SS-513 | LIB only | 2018? | 2020? | 2022? | MHI | |
1 Aus | Super Soryu for Australia | LIB only | 2022? | 2024? | 2026? | in Aus |
Table courtesy of updates provided to Submarine Matters by Japanese sources. LAB = lead-acid batteries,
AIP = (Stirling) air independent propulsion, LIB = lithium-ion batteries.
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In the case of 19SS, build expenses (53 billion yen) consist of government supply (23 billion yen) and build cost [labour?] (30 billion yen). About fifty percent of build cost is parts or material cost. [One billion yen currently = 12 million Australian dollars]
"Execution" (build) expenses tend to decrease every year, which are 60, 58.7, 56.2 and 53 billion yen for 16SS, 17SS, 18SS and 19SS, respectively.
The currently operational Oyashio class are the forerunners of the operational Soryu class. The Oyashios have a very similar internal and external structure to the Soryus. The Oyashio class does not have AIP so it has a shorter hull (at 81.7 meters) than the AIP equipped Soryu Mark Is (84 meters). The Oyashios also lack full rubber (Anechoic tile like) coatings on the outer hull. These differences explain some of the differences in cost between Oyashios and Soryus.
The cost of the Oyashios was 52.2 billion yen (type 5SS, FY1993 Oyashio). The cost rose to 59.8 billion yen for the AIP equipped Soryu Mark 1’s (designated type 16SS, FY2004 Soryu). A reference is “On the current status of foundation of ship building and technology” by Japanese MoD, FY2011 March.
From this comparative data, it can be concluded that the cost of AIP is high. [Pete’s Comment: The operational and safety downsides of AIP for Soryu also worried/worries the Japanese Navy]
In fact, the total cost of the 4 AIP engines for Soryu 19SS (FY2009 Soryu) was 4 billion yen [about A$50 million upfront + high running costs].
The last of the Soryu Mark 1s (ie. with AIP) will be 26SS (which will cost 52 billion yen).
Turning to future non-AIP Soryus [Mark 2s], specifically 27SS and 28SS, each will cost 64 billion yen. Within that cost there is:
- an increase of 1.5 billion yen for the introduction of Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)
- possible extra cost for the (possible) introduction of the new snorkel system
- removal of the AIP engines will save 4 billion yen per submarine.
"If Australia selects the Japanese submarine, the submarine will be very reliable, because there are three prototypes, i.e., 27SS, 28SS and 29SS."
DETAILED COSTINGS FOR 28SS (the 2nd SORYU MARK 2)
In December 2015, the budget for 28SS was announced by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). MoD requested 71.5billion yen. Judging from the budget, MoD expected higher performance from the 28SS compared to the preceding 27SS, but Ministry of Finance (MoF) was not impressed with MoD's expectation. As is correct the MoF approved budget stands and is less, at 63.6 billion yen (excluding some initial year costs).
28SS’s MoD Requested budget [1] was 71,527,717,000 (FY2016-2020) yen
The detailed request is as follows:
1) 118,833(FY2016),
2) 71,408,884 (FY2017-2020),
3) 6,830,844 (FY2017),
4) 24,290,039 (FY2018),
5) 23,682,417 (FY2019),
6) 16,605,584 (FY2020).
28SS’s MoF Approved budget is 63.6 billion yen [2], cost of first year (FY2016) is excluded.
For references see:
[1] http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/gaisan/h28/gaisanyoukyu.pdf , “Detailed FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 672, Request No (Left column) 47.
[1] http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/gaisan/h28/gaisanyoukyu.pdf , “Detailed FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 672, Request No (Left column) 47.
[2] http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/271016.pdf , “Defense Programs and Budget of Japan - Overview of FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 8/56.
Also note:
http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/gaisan/h27/gaisanyoukyu.pdf , “Detailed FY2015 Budget Request”, Page 626, Request No (Left column) 40, and
http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/270414.pdf , “Defense Programs and Budget of Japan - Overview of FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 8/66.
Details from S on batteries, torpedos and snorkels to follow later this week.
Pete