Submarine & Other Matters

Australia's security brief was relatively easy when Australia was "deputy sheriff" of the "Arc of Instability" (islands from East Timor through PNG, Solomons to Fiji) up until about 2008. But now Australia's role is even more complex with broader problems, including North Korea terrorising northeast Asia and China coveting the entire Indo-Pacific Region.

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AUSTRALIA INCREASING NAVAL EXERCISES

In August 2017 Australian personnel took part in joint US-Korean military exercises

Exercise Haedoli Wallaby

In solidarity with South Korea (considering the North Korean threat) Australian frigatesHMAS Melbourne and HMAS Parramattawill be making port visits to South Korea and conducting "Haedoli Wallaby" exercises with the South Korean Navy in late October 2017. "Haedoli" means "dolphin" in Korean.

Exercise Indo-Pacific Endeavor 2017

China would be aware that Australia is in touch with other countries in the region. During September to November 2017 HMAS Melbourne and Parramatta are also participating in a more widespread Indo-Pacific Endeavor 2017. Australian participants also include the newly commissioned landing helicopter dock HMAS Adelaide (photo below) - also the frigates HMAS Darwin, HMAS Toowoomba and replenishment ship HMAS Sirius. This is the largest Australian naval exercise in 40 years and involves visits to and/or interaction with naval forces from Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Micronesian Islands, India, again South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and East Timor. More at The Diplomat (paysite).

The Australian vessels are also exercising with those US destroyers that are still undamaged in the region.

AUSTRALIAN-SOUTH KOREAN DIPLOMACY

In the face of the North Korean threat Australia is taking other measures in solidarity with South Korea.

The third ROK-Australian 2 + 2 meeting in Seoul is being held on October 12 and 13, 2017. This is between Australia’s Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Defence Minister Marise Payne with their South Korean counterparts. Here is the Australian Ministers’ Joint Media Release.

It is highly likely that if North Korea attacked US forces in South Korea, in Japan/Okinawa or US forces at sea this would invoke the ANZUS Treaty. US and probably Australian forces would then be fighting against North Korea. See more at the (Australian) ABC News article by Andrew Greene.

Growing in size and becoming more active. Landing Helicopter Dock ships HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide as well as smaller Royal Australia Navy vessels at Fleet Base East (Sydney). (Photo courtesy Australia in the Great War)

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Pete

An Air Warfare Destroyer being built at ASC, Osborne, Adelaide. From the road I saw Nuships Brisbane and Sydney under construction. Ship/submarine building is Adelaide's (only promising?) manufacturing growth industry. Phote courtesy Sydney's Daily Telegraph.

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I've just been in Adelaide for 2 weeks to judge whether it a liveable city to move to.

My likely job(s) would be to continue to research submarine political and overview technical issues (especially Collins Upgrade and Australian Future Submarine) and supply talking point briefs to submarine businesses.

Likely move to Adelaide in next 12 months.

Criteria/issues in searching where to live includes:

1. Cost of housing. Housing + carspots large enough to host long or short term guest(s) who are
French or Australian.

2. Easy access from house to Osborne (improved motorways/roads/rail helps)

3. Nearby/accessible shopping centers and other retail services.

4. Would learning French be necessary or are Naval Group and French contractors intending to use
spoken and written English only?

5. Interesting that Adelaidians cannot seem to access better submarine information using local
hardcopy sources than is already available on Internet (accessible anywhere). For example
Reuters and the The Australian seems far better informed than what seems Adelaide's local
newspaper The Advertiser.

6. Yet Adelaide's only growing manufacturing sector seems to be ship/submarine building.

7. Aim that Submarine Matters would continue - with shorter articles.

Pete

One can tell this Akula II is INS Chakrafrom the India naval ensign flying above the fin/sail and probably (?) the badge on the front of the fin/sail.

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The US government may have provided information that India is breaking a nuclear submarine (SSN) technology agreement with Russia. If so, this may be a US attempt to drive a wedge between India and Russia. More specifically it may reduce the chances India may lease a second Russian SSN and reduce the chances of Russian assistance to India on future indigenous Indian SSNs, SSBNs and their SLBMs.

On November 7, 2017 US website Strategypage reported Russian suspicions that India is violating the INS Chakra (Akula II ex-Nerpa SSN) lease agreement. Russian authorities suspect India is revealing some Chakra nuclear submarine technology details to US naval personnel. Russia has attempted to prevent such "snooping" by stipulating that a Russian naval officer be aboard INS Chakra at all times.

Strategypage goes on to report:

“Russia is also believed to suspect that a growing number of Indian naval officers have become so dissatisfied with Russian ships and poor Russian workmanship and repairs that they might pass details of [INS Chakra] the Akula II India already has to U.S. Navy officers they work with.”

COMMENT

My searches so far haven't unearthed Indian or other US information to support Strategypage's (India violating Chakra lease agreement) report. Some details of Strategypage's report might have been inserted by the US Government as a small part of a campaign to cause political, strategic and economic friction between India and Russia.

BACKGROUND

The US is increasingly courting India, in part to separate India from Russia (India's largest supplier of arms). The US also wants to sell India several civilian Westinghouse nuclear power reactors to supply electricity. Russian company Rosatom (see same article) is a nuclear power reactor competitor to Westinghouse.

In August 2017 a continuing US/Boeing desire to sell F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to India was reported. Such US aircraft may eventually replace many of the Russian MiGs and Sukhois fighter/attack aircraft that India has been buying for decades.

India financed the completion of a Russian Akula II SSN Nerpa in the 2000s. Nerpa became Chakra on lease to India in 2012 (see right sidebar).

For several years India has expressed interest in financing the completion of a second Akula II (Project 971). Russia might then lease this second Akula II concurrently with INS Chakra or it may be delivered to India once Chakra's 10 year lease expires in 2022 (or a few years later).

At one stage India even hoped to lease one of Russia's late model Yasen SSNs. Russia quietly rejected this as Russia has too few Yasen SSNs to spare and Yasen technology is considered too sensitive to share with "lease" customers.

FURTHER COMMENT

Continuing Russian supply of weapons to India would be opposed by many in the US Government. But others would look forward to access to the latest Russian weapons' technological details once Russia sells or leases these weapons to India.

Pete

Submarine Mattershas long expressed concern about submarine companies that operate in Australia employing current or former citizens of China. See the last paragraph of SubMatt’s 2015 article.

This concern is more widely held as an interesting article of November 8, 2017 by Tory Shepherd, State Editor of Adelaide’s Advertiser, reveals. This is a small portion of the Advertiser article. I have added the links below:

“Ruling means submarine designers Naval Group can stop Chinese, Russians from getting work

THE winners of the $50 billion Future Submarines project have been granted freedom to discriminate against certain nationalities to protect top-secret information from spies.

The exemption from discrimination laws means French designers Naval Group will be able to reject job applicants from countries including China and Russia, stopping them from getting on to the Osborne site.

...Now, the South Australian Employment Tribunal has granted Naval Group immunity from the Equal Opportunity Act, which usually stops companies discriminating on the basis of nationality.

The tribunal found it was in the public interest to grant the exemption because without it, SA might lose some work on the 12 submarines being built for the Royal Australian Navy.

... [Shortfin] will use combat systems from the US. The US has a list of banned countries [including Russia, China, North Korea and Iran] within its International Traffic in Arms Regulations...."

SEE THE WHOLE ADVERTISER ARTICLE

Hi Donors

I've just emailed you the November 2017 Donor Report: The IUSS in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

IUSS is the American Integrated Undersea Surveillance System.

Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

Regards

Pete

Director

Submarine Matters International

In setting lithium-ion battery (LIB) Safety Standards Japan thoroughly tests land, ship and submarine LIBs. Above see a drop impact tester (on left) and vibration tester (on right). Photo courtesy Japan Industry News.---

Anonymous commentedabout Japanese Industrial Standards on lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for ships. These Standards have requirements and recommendations on LIB safety.

[What are some examples of some Japanese maritime LIB safety standards by code and numbers? For more general Japanese Safety Standard for LIBs see subheading “Legal regulations in Japan”]

Safety analysis tools for risk reduction measures age equipment using LIBs include:

- Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)

- Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and

- Safety Integrity Level (SIL)

Risks of LIBs for submarine are often pointed out. But submarine operation and maintenance involves many risks.

For example the practice of rectangular “sunroof” hull cutting on Collins submarines (scroll 2/3s way down on this 2016 SubMatt article) to service diesel-generator sets) involves risk of fracture when Collins dive deeply. In fact the RAN leadership have limited maximum Collins diving depths because of the risks of extensive hull cutting.

It could be that the possibility of a submarine sinking caused by rectangular hull cutting is far higher than the risk of LIBs failure.

Anonymous's Article and Pete's comment in [...] Brackets

Below is my first attempt at a German/Italian U-212A/Todaro Class TABLE. Much needs to be added and corrected (especially for "Batch 3" and what may be built for Norway and Poland.

What do you think?

U-212A/Todaro Class TABLE

Country	Type/ Name	Pennant No.	Number Built	Propulsion	Advances	Problems
Germany	U212A Batch 1 U31-U34	S181-S184	4 x 1998-2007	1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW	Larger than Type 206, has AIP, 5 more HWTs
	U212A Batch 2 U35-U36	S185-S186	2 x 2007-2016	1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW
	U212A Batch 3 U37-U38	S187-S188	2	?
Italy	Todaro Class Batch 1	S526- S527	2 x 1999-2007	1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW	Larger than Sauro Class, has AIP, 1 more HWT
	Todaro Class Batch 2	S528- S529	2 x 2009-2017	1 MTU 16V 396, motor is 2.85MW, AIP is 2x120kW
	Todaro Class Batch 3	S530- S531	2	?
Norway?	U212A	?
Poland?	U212A	?

The German TKMS Type 212A. Model courtesy Revell Shop Germany.

Pete

An interesting report of November 12, 2017 from Sandeep Unnithan has inspired facts and thoughts:

- Admiral Sunil Lanba Chief of Indian Naval Staff visited the Naval Group (was DCNS) submarine

yard at Cherbourg, France, in early November 2017. Admiral Lanba was given a detailed

presentation on France’s new SSNs, the Barracuda class. The first, the Suffren, is due to be

launched soon.

- Naval Group is also building six Kalvari class Scorpene SSKs for the Indian navy at Mazagon

Docks, Mumbai under a 2005 contract.

- Naval Group is also competing for the much delayed six AIP SSK Project 75I. If Naval Group wins

Project 75I Naval Group may just possibly agree to technology transfers from the Barracuda in
several respects:

: influencing the hull shape of an improved, larger Scorpene for Project 75I

: the pump jet and K15 reactor used in France’s Triomphant class SSBN and soon to be launched

Barracuda class SSN may influence India's SSBNs (to fire K-4 SLBMs in the 2020s) and

influence India's 6 SSN Project (in the 2030s)

As well as visiting France’s Naval Group I would guess that Admiral Lanbahas recently been leading Indian delegations to visit shipyards of the other remaining Project 75I competitors, which are:

- Germany’s TKMS

- Sweden’s Saab, and

- Russia’s Rosoboronexport/Rubin Design Bureau

The Suffren, first of the French Barracuda nuclear propelled attack submarines (SSNs) sports a paint job indicating 1 of 4(?) torpedo hatches and the bow sonar (?) The launch ceremony will probably be in late 2017/early 2018. (Photo courtesy AFP and Naval Group).

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Pete

Australia's rising naval power (epitomised by the 2 LHDs and 3 AWDs) is being paralleled by its participation in the strategic Quadrilateral concept. The other 3 Quadrilateral members are the powerful maritime nations, US, Japan and India.

The Quadrilateral's prime purpose is to contain China's strategic expansion in the relatively newly labelled region "Indo-Pacific" (see map below). Within the "Indo" (Indian Ocean) Chinese surface ship and submarine visits have risen sharply in the last 5 years. China has also established a naval base at Djibouti, Africa, facing the Indian Ocean.

Within the Pacific China is of course building militarised South China Sea islands and bilaterally courting or pressuring, some Southeast Asian nations (Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and Malaysia). China may argue that this activity is all part of its oil-gas trade route One Belt One Road Initiative but the raw uncompromising militaristic flavour of China's advance demands containment by other Indo-Pacific countries.

The US, Japanese, Indian and Australian members of the Quadrilateral will most notably interact in naval exercises, but also quiet diplomatic meetings continue between them.

If Trump had not dumped the TPP negotiations the Quadrilateral countries might have also formed a powerful economic grouping within the TPP. Instead the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is proving successful while the TPP proposal collapses.

To make the Quadrilateral work Reality Twitter Trump needs to foster consistent US leadership.

As in 2007-2008 China may yet flex its economic muscles to break the Quadrilateral (the weakest link unfortunatly being Australia).

The Indo-Pacific Region, an expanse that well fits containment of China by Quadrilateral nations: Japan, India, Australia and the US.
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Pete

After much frustrating work I've decided to steer away from tabulating propulsion information on Western designed submarines. This is due to the vast amount of conflicting information, from numerous, already existing, written sources.

Seeming conflicting information is partly due to:

- There frequently being more than one diesel generator in a given sub – with the customer

frequently deciding on the total number of diesels and their total power.

- Put another way, different customer countries use different diesel generator, motor and AIP power

outputs.

- There are cruising speed/power "red lines" (surfaced, snorting and fully submerged) which,

if exceeded, could cause overheating over certain periods or excessive wear and shorter lives

of engine parts.

- Maximum diesel generator power output may be twice or more of the minimum.

- Diesels may be run far lower than capacity – to reduce noise.

- Essential use of diesel in snorkeling mode will likely reduce power output by 20%.

- Diesel generators and the electric motors have different power output due to reduction gear or

PSMS particulars.

- Battery and/or AIP use has variable impacts on motor power output.

Much more interesting and useful is focus on the small amount of information on Chinese, North Korean and Russian designed submarine propulsion mixtures.

Pete

On Friday, 17 November 2017 it was announced the Argentine submarine ARA San Juan had not been heard from for over 48 hours. San Juan was in the southern Argentine sea 250 miles from Argentina's Patagonian coast when it sent its last signal on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 (Partly based on Wikipedia). Specifically San Juan last reported in when it was en route from the Ushuaia naval base to the Mar del Plata base (where Argentina's submarine force is home based).^[8]

The search and rescue operations had been launched some 220 miles southeast of San Jorge Gulf.^[7] The initial search and rescue operation was carried out by the destroyer Sarandi and the corvettes Rosales and Drummond, supported by two S-2E Tracker surveillance aircraft.^[9] A US P-3 Orion maritime patrol plane (equipped with a magnetometer, gravimeter, and other sensors) has joined the search^[12] and the UK has offered assistance in the form of a C-130 Hercules based in the Falkland Islands.^[13]

There are at least 44 people on board San Juan.^[10] Among them is Argentina's first female submarine officer, Eliana María Krawczyk.^[11]

COMMENTS

Generally and unfortunately submarines that have been "lost" for 2 to 3 days have sunk with all hands. Likelihood of it being sunk is partly because there are so many means of commmunication on a submarine, to indicate its "alive" including:
- several types of radios that work to satellites (eg. US Government satellites and Inmarsat) and/or to
Argentinian or foreign naval base stations
- even in the unlikelihood of all radios failing San Juan could indicate its position by "pinging" its
active sonar(s) to maximum volume. This is a useful means of indicating a submarine's precise
position to listening "passive" sensors (eg. on naval ships) that are even hundreds of miles away.
- when surfaced the submarine could fire flares and turn on its navigation lights day and night
- when surfaced the submarine could activate military versions of Emergency Position
Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs)
- San Juan, if it can surface, can always contact passing surface ships, fishing boats or seaside
towns/villages

ARA San Juan (S-42) is a TR-1700-class enlarged German TKMS designed derivative of the Type 209 conventional diesel-electric submarine.

Even though San Juan has had extensive upgrades its hull is old as it was completed in 1983. This means that the hull would be rusted/corroded and may suffer metal fatigue. It would have a more limited diving depth than when it was new.

Other than unintentionally diving too deep to crush depth a submarine can "sink" for many other reasons, including:
- collision with the seafloor, with an iceberg or with a surface ship
- crew mistakes in upsetting the buoyancy of a submarine can also be fatal
- fire, explosion, flood or escape of poison gas can also occur due to malfunctioning of a sub's
lead-acid batteries or torpedo propellant or warheads.

All that pessimism aside I hope the crew of San Juan have survived.

Offshore and just south of the square on the map on the left is where ARA San Juan last reported its location 3 days ago. (Map courtesy Research Gate).

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ARA San Juan in happier times. (Photo courtesy Argentinian Government).

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Pete

I indicated (on 18 November 2017) that submarine (submarinos) ARA San Juan on 15 November 2017 “Likely Sunk With All Hands”. Despite some announcements from the Argentine Defense Ministry (providing some comfort) it is still likely all or most of the crew have been lost.

The Argentine Defense Ministry reported“We received seven signals from satellite calls that originated from the San Juan submarine... The Defense Ministry...is working with an American company that specializes in satellite communication to determine the exact location of the signals. The [signals] lasted between four and 36 seconds in the late morning and early afternoon on Saturday ([18 November 2017] local time). Apparently, and so far, these signals failedto establish San Juan’s location.

The US has sent one or two small deep submergence rescue submarine systems (see Photo 2 and Artwork below) to Argentina. These systems must be deployed from specially fitted-out ships to operate in the search area.

COMMENTS-2

As indicated in COMMENTS-1 yesterday Emergency Position Indicator Radio BeaconsEPIRBs form one means of search and rescue communication that San Juan likely has/had. San Juan may also have even more effective naval floating rescue buoys which may be attached by thin cable to San Juan and released in the event of a serious accident or sinking.

An EPIRB (see Photo 1 below) is a type of transmitter which can float. An EPIRB's signals, through satellite triangulation, can provide an approximate or exact location of the people or the craft, who manually or automatically turned on the EPIRB.

However, unfortunately an EPIRB/rescue buoy can float and transmit independently of the fate of San Juan:

- an EPIRB/rescue buoy may have been automatically released by San Juan as San Juan fatally sunk

- an EPIRB/rescue buoy would normally be programmed to send out regular distress signals, even if there are no human operators present

- maybe it is possible some crew may be floating, maybe with an EPIRB

- hopefully there is a thin cable (see Photo 1 below) connecting San Juan to an EPIRB/rescue buoy.

- Such a thin cable may permit exact location of San Juan even if San Juan is on the seafloor

- if there is no thin cable an EPIRB/rescue buoy may have floated many miles away from San Juan’s, likely seafloor, location

- as EPIRBs only cost a few hundred dollars they are very commonly carried by ships and even small fishing boats. So their transmissions may not be related to the fate of San Juan.

Photo 1 - A floating Emergency Position Indicator Radio BeaconEPIRBused to indicate location of a sailor in a raft. Note the thin cable connecting EPIRB to raft. If an EPIRB (or similar naval floating transmitter) is connected to San Juan there may be more hope.

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Photo 2 - Heavy US transport aircraft are reportedly delivering submarine rescue systems to Argentina. A remotely operated, deep diving, pressurized rescue module (PRM) may form part of a the San Juan rescue mission (Photo courtesy US Navy visa USNI)

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Artwork - It is also likely the US Navy has flown Bluefin-21 or similar autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to Argentina to aid in the search for San Juan. AUVs can “see” submarines on the seafloor using side-scan sonar and other sensors. (Image courtesy General Dynamics Marine Systems).

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Pete

Using much of Anonymous's input of November 19, 2017 and many websites I've put together the 1st Attempt at a Submarine Propusion Table.

Note that I have avoided detail of actual power outputs of diesels, motors and AIP because such output figures are variable and often disagree. Working out precise, official and universal power outputs would take forever - or maybe for the time being...

Much emphasis is on submarine propulsion of competitors to Western countries. Those competitors being mainly North Korea, China, Russia and maybe Iran.

There is much to change, correct and add to the Table, of course. Nuclear submarine propulsion needs adding.

If the text in the Table looks a bit small (and you have WORD 7 or more modern) just simultaneously press Ctrl and +to enlarge the text. Press Ctrl and - to shrink the screen back to its usual size.

So here is the 1st Attempt

Submarine Propulsion Table (as at November 20, 2017)

Country/ Company	Type/ Details	Diesel engine	Motor, AIP (if fitted)	Alternatives
North Korea	Golf / Sinpo class derivative	1 to 3 E390ZC-1? Russian Golf class given to NK with 3 × diesels originally		MTU 16V396SE84 or MAN SEMT Pielstick ?
China	Ming class, Type 033	1 x E390ZC-1		MTU 16V396SE84 or MAN SEMT Pielstick ?
China	Song class (Type 039) & Yuan class (Type 039A or 41)	Likely use 2 to 4 x MTU 16V396SE84 or 12 cylinder MAN12PA4V200SMDSpage 6		16V diesel built by Yuchai Group see sources A and B or MTU derivative likely, given China now has a MTU 4000 factory
Russia	Kilo class	2 to 4 1DL42 (ChN 30/38) last sentence& see whole document		Likely to use 2 to 4 x MTU 16V396SE84 ?
Russia	Lada/Amur class, just 1 testbed	1 or 2 x Kolomensky Zavod V8D49 (and/or ED-2) ChN26/26	“on permanent magnets” AIP being developed
Iran	Kilo class	2 to 4 1DL42 (ChN 30/38) last sentence& see whole document
India	Kilo class	2 to 4 1DL42 (ChN 30/38) last sentence& see whole document
Germany TKMS	Type 212A 1998-still building	1 MTU 16V396SE84, PEM AIP	Siemens Permasyn youtube& last page ,AIP	MTU 12V4000U83 ?
Germany TKMS	Type 209, 214, 218, Dolphin, TR-1700, 1971 – still being built	1 to 4 MTU 16V396SE84	Siemens Permasyn last page AIP	MTU 12V4000U83 ?
Italy/ Fincantieri	Todaro Class 4 so far	1 or 2 MTU 16V 396,	Siemens Permasyn last page AIP
France, Naval Group (DCNS)	Scorpene for Chile, Malaysia, India, Brazil 2000 – still being built	4 x MTU 16V396SE84	Jeumont Schneider motor
Japan	Oyashio class	2 x Kawasaki 12V25/25S
Japan	Soryu class	2 × Kawasaki 12Ｖ25/25SB	AIP
Sweden	Gotlands, Sodermanland, Archer	2 × Hedemora Diesel	Stirling/Sterling AIP
Australia	Collins	3 × Garden Island-Hedemora HV V18b/15Ub (VB210) 18-cylinder	3 × Jeumont-Schneider, no AIP
Australia	Shortfin future class "12" but likely 6	See Rex Patrick’s APDR, Siemen’s Oct 2015 article	no AIP?

Anonymous and Pete

As Submarine Matters indicated 3 days ago (November 18, 2017) ARA San Juan has tragically and "Likely Sunk With All Hands" due to collision "fire, explosion, flood or escape of poison gas...due to malfunctioning of a sub's lead-acid batteries or torpedo propellant or warheads".

As indicated yesterday (November 19, 2017) San Juan's alleged messages may have come from a ship or fishing boat and "may not be related to the fate of San Juan". Now the Argentine Navy has said "there was no “clear evidence” that the calls had come from the submarine."

The Argentine Navy understandably will see its task as establishing proof of San Juan's fate:

- Proof is required to prevent the spread of strange rumours that raise the hopes of the San
Juan relatives and ordinary Argentinians that San Juan is somehow still "alive".
- Proof is required for the morale of the Navy and to indicate to TKMS, the German builder
of the submarine, that the design is sound.
- Proof also needs to be communicated by the Argentine Navy/Government in a way that
protects the political reputation of the Argentine Navy and Government.

An Inquiry will follow any eventual discovery of San Juan. The Inquiry will look at Argentine submarine safety training methods, maintenance of the submarines and why authorities decided to still use such an old submarine as San Juan - which dates back to 1983.

For proof the Argentine Navy most likely needs the help of small manned, or more likely unmanned, deep submerging probes that Submarine Matters pointed to yesterday. These have been flown to Argentina by a US Airforce/US Navy joint effort. These probes are at A and B below:

These probes will be able to photograph San Juan on the sea floor.

Some probes can listen for any signs of life in San Juan. Probes can be lowered that can rescue crew (though crew still being alive is highly unlikely). Eventually probes may be able to cut into San Juan and perhaps raise it. All this depends on how deep on the sea floor San Juan has descended.

A - a remotely operated, deep diving, pressurized rescue module (PRM) (Photo courtesy US Navy via USNI)

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and B - it is also likely the US Navy has flown Bluefin-21 or similar autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). AUVs can “see” submarines on the seafloor using side-scan sonar and other sensors. (Image courtesy General Dynamics Marine Systems).

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Pete

COMMENT
It is important that prematurely announced rumours (of messages, sounds, etc) allegedly coming from ARA San Juan do not give relatives, or others, false hope. The roller-coaster of pessimism and optimism can only cause more worry. Out of false hope or military/government agendas comes conspiracy theories.

A recent precedent was the loss of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370) - a large jet that in March 2014 (very likely) crashed into the Indian Ocean. Despite rumour spreading and political posturing by the Malaysian military and government (and prematurely announced judgements from Australia's Prime Minister in 2014) MH370 has never been found. Although small bits of MH370 washed up on beaches, more than a year later and thousands of miles away from the expected crash point.

The search for San Juan may occur more like that of Air France Flight 447 (AF447) a flight from Rio, Brazil to Paris. AF477, an Airbus A330, crashed into the Atlantic, on 1 June 2009. The French Rubis class nuclear submarine L'Émeraudetook part in the early phase of the search. After immense effort from many small, specialised search probes AF477 was finally located in April 2011.

After informing the Argentine Government it is possible the US may have deployed one of its own Los Angeles or Virginia class nuclear submarines to help seach for San Juan.

ARTICLE

The Guardian, November 21, 2017,reported,in part:

"Argentina's navy says fresh noises are not [NOT] from missing submarine"

"...Argentina’s navy has said sounds detected from the bottom of the ocean are not from the

submarine which has been missing in rough seas for five days with 44 crew on board.

Spokesman Enrique Balbi said “a biological source” [eg. a whale] was behind the noises which were picked up by two Argentinian navy ships searching for ARA San Juan and by sonar buoys dropped by a US P8 surveillance plane.

The navy has also revealed the submarine’s last communication, on Wednesday, was to report a mechanical breakdown related to its batteries. Captain Gabriel Galeazzi, who runs the naval base in Mar del Plata, which was the submarine’s destination, said mechanical problems were not uncommon and rarely posed a risk.

The announcement regarding the noises dashed hopes raised by a CNN report on Monday that stated the sounds could be crew members banging tools against the hull. “The sounds are not from the submarine and do not correspond to a pattern that could be interpreted as Morse code,” Balbi said..."

SEE THE WHOLE GUARDIAN ARTICLE

Submarine ARA San Juan was travelling north from Ushuaia to the main submarine base at Mar Del Plata when it vanished - within what is now a very wide and deep three-dimensional search area (Map courtesy the Daily Mail (Australia Edition).

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"Eternal Father, Strong to Save"The Navy Hymn for Submariners

COMMENT

Sam Bateman (below), recognises that the pump jet remains a major reason for Australia choosing the French Future Submarine Shortfin over Japan and Germany deason to meet SEA 1000. This is despite Naval Group (was DCNS) seemingly backpedaling on the pump jet promise.

Also contributing to the choice of France - the 100s/1,000s of Australian Navy, Defence and company personnel who will live in France during the Future Submarine Shortfin Program would much prefer 2-3 years of French (culture compared to Japan or Germany’s). J'aime Paris! :)

After all – why was the defective Eurocopter/Airbus Tiger helicopter chosen over the far superior tried and tested SuperCobra or the Boeing Apache? The Tiger has failed in Australian service even though the Australian Army is delaying the conclusion that $1 Billion has been wasted: "avoiding the inevitable.

Wrote DEFENCE CONNECT in May 2017 “The [Tiger helicopter] has been under fire since last year, when an Australian National Audit Office report revealed the Tigers are not available in sufficient numbers to give pilots the mandated minimum 150 flight hours a year.

Entry to service was scheduled for 2009 but was delayed by seven years, and replacements of the aircraft are already set to begin in the mid 2020s, but Defence maintains there will be no capability void.

...The acquisition of 22 of the Tiger helicopters cost $1.1 billion (2001 price), with an additional cost of $397 million (2001 price) for a through-life support contract.”

So the now defunct DMO searching for problematic, bureaucratically labour intensive, weapon systems was not the only reason. Furthermore Defence needs to delete its DMO still liveswebsite.

ARTICLE

Pierre Tran for DefenseNews writes:

"How a French firm beat out Japanese companies in Australia’s submarine tender

PARIS ― A lack of Australian confidence in Japan’s defense industry sank an offer from Tokyo in the AUD$50 billion (U.S. $38 billion) tender for attack submarines, while greater stealth [held as a German deficiency] and advanced propulsiontechnology buoyed a rival French bid, said Sam Bateman, a research fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security.

Australia’s selection was based on a “commercial and strategic decision,” Bateman told the annual seminar of the Observatory for Southeast Asia on Nov. 17.

The seminar, held at the French War College, was organized by Asia Centre, a think tank of Inalco, a French foreign language institute, and was backed by the Institute for Strategic Research and General Directorate for International Relations and Strategy. The latter two are part of the French Armed Forces Ministry.

Japan enjoyed a strategic advantage, as there was “some U.S. pressure” on Australia to pick a Japanese submarine, Bateman said. But after an exhaustive study, there was “some uncertainty about Japanese ability to deliver,” he added. The lack of confidence stemmed from Japan’s little experience in defense sales in the wake of Australia’s multibillion dollar program.

“France is greatly involved in military sales,” Bateman said, adding that there was an offer for a better submarine in terms of stealth and a forced jet propulsion rather than a conventional propeller...”

SEE THE WHOLEDEFENSENEWS ARTICLE

Pete

The US Stars and Stripes publication, which informs the US military, has provided the most definitive statements yet on the approximate location and likely fate of ARA San Juan. On Thursday 23 November 2017 Stars and Stripes, reported:

“Ships and planes hunting for a missing Argentine submarine with 44 crew members will return to a previously search area after officials said Wednesday [22 November 2017] that a noise made a week ago in the South Atlantic could provide a clue to the vessel's location."

The Argentina navy spokesman, Capt. Enrique Balbi, said the "hydro-acoustic anomaly" was determined by the United States and specialist agencies to have been produced [on 15 November] just hours after the final contact with the ARA San Juan and could have come from the sub.

The sound originated about 30 miles north of the submarine's last registered position, he said.

"It's a noise. We don't want to speculate" about what caused it, Balbi said.

He said Argentine navy ships as well as a U.S. P-8 Poseidon aircraft and a Brazilian air force plane would return to the area to check out the clue, even though the area already was searched.

In San Diego, U.S. Navy Lt. Lily Hinz later said the unusual sound detected underwater could not be attributed to marine life or naturally occurring noise in the ocean. She declined to speculate whether it might have been an explosion, saying experts did not know what it was.

"It was not a whale, and it is not a regularly occurring sound," Hinz said.

COMMENT

The sensors that picked up a man-made/equipment sound on Wednesday 15 November 2017 (the day San Juan disappeared) may have been picked up by US seafloor array sensors. Such sensors are present in some wide expanses of ocean.

The US would likely be reluctant to specify further about its sensors. Use of sensors often involves a process of playing back old recorded sounds/signals.

Possibly what happened is:

- after San Juan reported its “electrical malfunction” to base San Juan took the standard action of

surfacing

- once San Juan surfaced, its crew performed the usual practice of opening the hatches to open air,

so as to stand on the fin/or ”sail” for lookout/navigation purposes and perhaps to help expel gas.

- if there was already stormy conditions operating on the surface can be dangerous

- waves can crash over the fin/sail and water can pour through open hatches

- if seawater unbalances the submarine and/or gets into contact then short circuits a submarine’s

mass of electrical equipment/batteries many dangers can be triggered. These include catastrophic

fire, explosions, and release of poisonous chlorine, carbon monoxide and poisonous/explosive

hydrogen gases.

- secondary explosions can be caused by oxygen cylinders/generators, burning batteries, torpedo fuel

and warheads “cooking off”

Explosions can be heard by underwater sensors hundreds of kilometres away.

BACKGROUND/COMMENT PRECEDENT

In 2004 the Canadian Victoria class diesel-electric submarine Chicoutimiexperienced a sequence of events that may have occurred in ARA San Jan.

On 4 October 2004 Chicoutimi was travelling from UK to Canada. Chicoutimi was forced to travel on the surface for the first stage of the passage. On 5 October Chicoutimi was passing through a storm with 6 metre seas. Water entered the conning tower/fin/sail.

Mistakes in opening all the "conning tower" hatches allowed about 2,000 litres of sea water into Chicoutimi. Water contacting electrical equipment led to electrical explosions and fire erupting. In order to fight the fire, all systems aboard Chicoutimi were shut down, leaving Chicoutimi dead in the water. If the fire had burnt batteries, oxygen cylinders, torpedo fuel or warheads Chicoutimi would have been destroyed. But Chicoutimi was lucky.

As Submarine Matters indicated on November 18, 2017San Juan was likely unlucky.

Pete

A Lurssen / Lürssen or Luerssen OPV-80. Some are already in our region in the Royal Brunei Navy (Darussalam class). There are also Lurssen OPV 85s and OPV 90s (Photo courtesy pinterest).
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On November 24, 2017 Australia's (current) Prime Minister Turnbull and two headed Pyne/Payne Defence Ministry announced that Germany's Lürssen had won the Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) competition. The OPV is likely to weigh a minimum of 1800 tonnes and maximum of 2,700 tonnes depending on the model chosen and how many stores and how much fuel it holds on a given mission.

The OPV will have a helicopter, at least two 7.62mm or 0.50 calibre machine guns, likely 57mm or 76mm cannon and no missiles.

This competition is designated SEA 1180 and concerns the building of :

- the first 2 OPVs from late 2018 in Osborne, Adelaide, South Australia. Just 2 to encourage
continuous building and avoid the no shipbuilding scenario called the "Valley of Death". Then
oddly.

- the remaining 10 OPVs to be built at Henderson, part of Perth, Western Australia.

COMMENT

As well as the inefficiences of a two location build a problematic mix of shipbuilders in the consortium may occur rapidly as Lürssen is partnered with and/or reliant on three companies (!) ASC, Civmec and Austal for the build.

Pete

Articles, including the New York Times of 23 November 2017 point to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) as doing much of the detection and analytical work pointing to an explosion or implosion of ARA San Juan on 15 November 2017.

But note that the US Navy’s own analysts came to the explosion or implosion conclusion by 21 November 2017 "Tuesday night" when the US Navy shared the conclusions with Argentina - 2 days before CTBTO shared their conclusions with Argentina, on 23 November "Thursday night".

CTBTO's hydrophones on 15 November 2017 may have detected San Juan's explosion/implosion where the blue lines cross. However these CTBTO detection points are very distant from San Juan, hence likely requiring closer US Navy hydrophones for mathematical confirmation.
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It is likely the US Navy's little advertised unit had more sensitive hydrophones closer to the South American continent – that is closer to San Juan. Hydrophones of other governments (see map below) may have concurred.

An explosion capable of destroying San Juan could have been caused by a buildup of hydrogen gas generated by malfunctions in San Juan's hundreds of tons of batteries. Another explosive cause may have been ignition of torpedo fuel that can almost simultaneously “cook off” one or more of San Juan's 22 torpedo warheads. Perhaps the only "comfort" for relatives was that San Juan's end likely occurred quickly.

An explosion like sound can be an implosion of San Juan once it moves deeper than the approximately 550 metre “crush depth”. San Juan’s main sailing area may have been only 250 metres deep but some parts are 3,000 metres deep.

"Eternal Father, Strong to Save" The Navy Hymn for Submariners

An image mostly of undersea depths - The magenta dot marks the approximate location of ARA San Juan's suspected explosion and/or "crush depth" implosion. The explosion point is on the seafloor east of Argentina's Valdes Peninsula and less than 64 kms from where San Juan last radio contacted the Argenetine Navy. This is at the outer rim of the continental shelf (averaging about 200 metres deep) - then down the slope where the seafloor depth is around 1,000 metres, then even deeper.

If San Juan's wreck, or small remaining fragments, lie deeper than 400 metres and are on an unstable slope San Juan will be more difficult to find and retrieve. The above laser/sonar produced image is probably from the US Navy and comes via a Brazilian website released 24 November 2017.

A similar precedent is the sinking of US submarine Thresher in 1963. Some analysts concluded Threshersuffered an electrical failure. Thresher's subsequent crush depth implosion was detected by hydrophones of the US’s then highly secret SOSUS network. The locations of hydrophone arrays in the US’s current SOSUS network remain highly secret and have been relabeled under the broader term Integrated Undersea Surveillance System (IUSS).

SOSUS networks have also been constructed by Russia (for 60 years eg. in the Arctic Ocean) and China (for 30 years from a low start, now growing in the South China Sea).

Pete

Australian Navy - Larger and More Active in the Indo-Pacific Region

Pete working in Adelaide in Next 12 Months?

US Report that India is Revealing Russian SSN Secrets to US Navy

Australian Tribunal Permits Naval Group To Bar Any Chinese & Russian Employees

November 2017 Donor Report: The IUSS in the Pacific & Indian Oceans

Japanese Safety Standards for Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) Use

German/Italian U-212A/Todaro Class TABLE - 1st Attempt

Indian Admiral Lanba Visits French Barracuda SSN Project

The Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Rises Again

Chinese, NK & Russian Designed Submarine Propulsion

Argentine Submarine San Juan Likely Sunk With All Hands

Some Hope San Juan Submarine Crew Sending Messages - But Unlikely

Submarine Propulsion Table - 1st Attempt

Argentine Navy/Government Needs Proof for Relatives & Other Reasons

Major Search & Rescue Discipline Necessary To Find San Juan

Hopefully French Submarine Will Perform Better Than Its Tiger Helicopters

US Sensors May Have Detected San Juan's Fate

Lürssen wins Australia's Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) Competition

San Juan Tragedy By Explosion or Implosion Agencies Conclude

Wreck of San Juan may be on difficult slope