Submarine & Other Matters

Trump always values advice - not from the FBI, but that from ex-KGB agent Vladimir Putin,

Hence:

"In a February 2017 conversation...Trump told Comey how Putin told [Trump], “we have some of the most beautiful hookers in the world” even as [Trump] adamantly, and repeatedly, distanced himself from a salacious allegation concerning him and prostitutes in Moscow, according to one [FBI] memo."

Trump reputedly boasted to Putin: "Hookers rule Putey! But even after Stormy da prenup has Number 3 hooked."

...although the latter cannot be confirmed.

Comment

All Americans are grateful for this reality Twitt Presidency and his suspected Honey Trap history.

Trump's legendary sexuality is his own affair.

Based on Australia's government owned ABC News report of April 20 2018

"Three Australian warships were challenged by the Chinese military as they travelled through the disputed South China Sea earlier this month, the ABC can reveal."

The confrontations with China's People's Liberation Army Navy are believed to have occurred as China was conducting its largest ever naval exercises in the hotly contested waters.

Defence sources have confirmed Australian frigates HMAS Anzac and HMAS Toowoomba as well as replenishment ship HMAS Success were challenged by the PLA Navy after those Australian vessels left Subic Bay, Philippines on the way to a 3 day goodwill visit to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull "would not confirm the incident but reiterated Australia's right to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the area."

Australian Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also "reiterated Australia's rights within international law and downplayed the seriousness of the incident."

"I think 'confrontation' is somewhat of a tabloid-style description of what goes on in the South China Sea very regularly," Pyne said.

In a statement, China's Defence Ministry said: "“The reports from Australia are different from the facts". "On April 15 China's naval vessels encountered Australian naval ships in the South China Sea. China's ships used professional language to communicate with the Australian side. China's operation is lawful and conforms to conventions. It is professional and safe...."

Ships visiting Subic Bay (near Manila) Philippines can't avoid crossing China's self placed Nine dash line to sail to Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam. (Map courtesy Wiki).

---

Comment

Not only might China be angry that Australia was crossing China's new nine dash delineated "lake" but was also angry Australia was visiting China's occasional enemy neighbour, Vietnam.

Pete

Prosecutor

Danish inventor Peter Madsen is on trial for the torture and murder of Swedish journalist Kim Wall during a private UC3 Nautilus mini submarine trip on August 10, 2017. The submarine sank but was refloated. The prosecutor at the court case said April 23, 2018 there is a risk that Madsen can commit the same kind of crime again.

The prosecutor said Kim Wall may have been tied with her own stockings before Madsen impaled Wall, and that Madsen acted with a sexual motive. Madsen is then accused of cutting Wall up, placing the body parts in plastic bags and tossing them overboard.

The prosecutor demanded Madsen be given “life” in prison, which is only 16 years under Danish law, although the sentence could be extended if necessary. Alternatively Madsen could be locked up in a secure mental facility for as long as he's considered a danger to others.

The prosecutor said Madsen is not insane but "emotionally impaired with severe lack of empathy, anger and guilt." A court-ordered psychiatric report described Madsen as an intelligent man "with psychopathic tendencies."

Defense lawyer

The defense lawyer called it "a horror story ... but the story is not based on facts. It is based on undocumented claims...It is not Madsen’s duty to prove that he is innocent. It is the task of the prosecutor to prove that Madsen is guilty.

The defense lawyer said there was no doubt Madsen dismembered Wall's body, but told the court there was inadequate evidence proving Madsen killed Wall.

Madsen said Wall died because of a pressure problem in the home-made submarine. But the prosecutor said that "forensic experts have found nothing" about a gas or pressure problem.

Madsen admitted to cutting Wall up before he "buried her at sea." Madsen claimed he had to cut Wall up because he could not lift Wall’s body up the submarine tower in one piece to throw it overboard.

The details above are drawn from an article by JAN M. OLSEN for ASSOCIATED PRESS (COPENHAGEN, Denmark, Apr 23, 2018) via US ABC News.

Also see an earlier January 17, 2018 article about Danish prosecutors wanting to confiscate and destroy Madsen’s refloated submarine, UC3 Nautilus.

The trial verdict is expected to be publicised April 25, 2018 (Danish time) which is early morning April 26 Australian time

Kim Wall (inset) and the 40 tonne mini-sub UC3 Nautilus where she was allegedly murdered by Madsen.

---

The Remembrance poppy symbolises ANZAC Day.
---

ANZAC Day, 25^thApril, is the most recognised secular day of remembrance in Australia and probably New Zealand (home of the “Kiwis”). Hearing snippets of war songs at parades or on television on Anzac Day has made me want to dig deeper as a mark of respect and remembrance. The particular power of war songs, or anti-war songs, are in their strength and diversity of emotion: sorrow, action, anger, remembrance, fear, mateship, loneliness, love, generosity, authority and protest.

The songs start with the most recent wars then end with World War I. On casualties alone that latter war has the most meaning and I’ll show it has meaning in my family’s history.

Australia's endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have generated few songs but here is Please Remember Me (originally Dante's Prayer by Loreena McKennitt).

I Was Only 19 is without doubt the most famous and realistic Australian song of the Vietnam War. It was written and sung by John Schumann when he led the far left and undervalued Australian group Redgum.

From World War II the poem High Flightwas eventually published. Here’sthe John Denver rendition.

Band of Brotherswas a superb series with a memorable theme tune but the lyrics are too American, for my taste anyway.

Its a Long Way to Tipperary was cheekily sung by the captain and crew song of Das Boot the greatest submarine movie. Hitler would have forbidden such a song.

Politicians and the commercial media perpetuate the assumption that true Anzacs were and are all front line infantry. Other occupations were more dangerous than infantry. Pilots and aircrew often suffered the highest casualties and shortest life expectancy of any service. Sailors, in particular submariners, were often in great danger both from the enemy and also from accidents while encased in their high risk vessels: Navy Hymn for Submariners.

Religion is an undoubted comfort to many soldiers while fighting and years later to those who returned alive. The hymn Abide With Me is sung by Hayley Westernra from Christchurch, New Zealand.

Anzac Day remembers Aussies and Kiwis who served in all the wars to which their countries were committed, yet it still centres on World War I, Australia's worst, most wasteful, war. It is often forgotten that in that war more Australians died (53,000) on the battlefields of France and Belgium than at Gallipoli (8,709 deaths).

And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda is by Scottish-Australian singer and songwriter Eric Bogle who, like Redgum, has produced lasting songs of meaning. The song is about a digger who is wounded at Gallipoli, treated in hospital, then returns to Australia.

What happened to "those brave wounded heroes of Suvla” in the song? Following up the reality led me to my, now late, grandfather. In 1915 on the Mediterranean island of Lemnos, this photo is of my Grandfather, Staff Sergeant Leo Coates, in his unit, the No. 1 Australian Stationary Hospital. He helped to develop one of the first field X-ray machines and then operated it (as pictured) to save lives. On November 4, 1915 he moved with the hospital to Gallipoli. Sergeant Coates later rose to Colonel serving in World War II India and Britain. His son (my father) would fight in Vietnam (1970-71).

I think Eric Bogle’s The Green Fields of France or No Man’s Land is the most memorable anti-war song ever written. As a haunting poem, march, song of love and injustice it is a fitting anthem to remember the men and women, living and dead, who are our Anzacs.

Pete

Above is Russia's state defense orders in 2014 and 2015. (Graphics from Russian Defense Ministry, then published by TASS.) While submarines are analysed below there is a wealth of data on non-submarine strategic systems.

GRAPHIC AND EXTRA DATA

Adding to the small amount of submarine data in the graphic. Note that orders for:

- Improved Kilo Project "636" [likely 636.3 restricted to Russian Navy] SSKs occur at the rate of
2 each year [see later build data 2016 & 2017 for 636.3s]

- 1 or 2 Borei/Borey Project 955 SSBNs occur each year [see later year data out to 2026 for Boreis
955s, 955As and 955Bs (the As and Bs are due to be fitted with 20 SLBMs instead of the existing
16 in the first 3 x 955s (right click mouse to translate this).

- Yasen Project 885 SSGNs in contrast are ordered intermittently (in 2014 but not in 2015). See later
year Yasen data out to 2023. Note, despite Russian denials, Russia is likely to need to keep on
building Yasens past 2023 to replace retiring Oscar SSGNs and Akula SSNs until
"cheaper, smaller" Huskies or "Khaskis" (in Russian) SSNs and SSGNs become commissioned
(likely not in early 2020s) but in the 2030s .

COMMENT

Russia will have financial trouble sustaining continuous build of Boreis, Yasens and Kilos while meeting the high costs of developing Huskies.

With the one exception of Seawolfto Virginia rarely do replacement submarines become "cheaper and smaller" because of industrial revenue interests and naval profession/capability interests.

Maybe it is useful to see the expensive, high specs, Yasen/Severodvinsk Project as a delayed, Russian response to the first launched in 1995 expensive, high specs, Seawolf (?). Also Russia, with its defense financial drought of the 1990s and early 2000s, was paradoxically unable to cancel the already begun expensive ("too big to fail") Yasen Project.

Some major defense Projects have their own momentum that cost more in money and careers to shelve and start again
easier to delay and pass off blame

Pete

Britain is pushing its Pacific Power line, in terms of a sudden increase in warships in the Pacific and via future High Commissions in very small places. From little investments big sales grow.

Essential morning reading is Matangi Tonga Online, of course. To that end its April 23-24, 2018 edition reported: "The announcement by Britain’s Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson on 19 April that the UK will be opening up diplomatic mission in...Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu."

COMMENT

One could theorise that Britain’s sudden interest in establishing High Commissions in tiny Pacific islands represents a sudden burst of humanitarianism, consular care or even to counter a rising China presence. As a realist I'd say countering China is a piece of the puzzle, but there is more.

I sense a more important commercial motive, which is Britain wanting to paint itself as a returned Pacific power in order to increase its chances of selling its Type 26 Future Frigates to Australia. The sale is worth AU$35 Billion, so the incremental step of opening 3 very small, low cost, High Commissions is a good diplomatic-commercial move. Britain can claim this is one part of its return to Pacific strategy and the Australian Government can use this "we are not alone against China" line on the Australian public

I hear you scoff!

International political arguments appeal to the politicians of Australia's National Secuty Committee of Cabinet, who will choose the winner, as much as complex weapons system capability comparisons.

Remember Francerepeatedly reminded Australia of France’s Pacific power status on the way to selling the 12 French DCNS (now Naval Group) Submarine Project in 2016, worth AU$50 Billion. See Submarine Matter’s article 2016 Defence White Paper - Comparing Australia's relations with the 3 Submarine Contender countries of March 3, 2016 - a White Paper released just before Australia’s April 26, 2016 Buy French Submarine decision.

Avid readers of the Australia’s 2016 Defence White Paper will note the mentions of France's Pacific presence in Section 5.83 (inred andbolded here).

This British diplomatic groundwork is nicely timed, given Australia may well make the Future Frigate decision (Britain vs Italy vs Spain) before July 1, 2018. (see "Government to announce Prime [Future Frigate] Contractor" in 2nd Quarter 2018 in the Australian Defence Department’s own “Achieved/Forecast” column.

So news of the UK upgrading its Pacific presence (even in small ways) can be seen as a ship sale booster.

Pete

See a superb article by Abraham Ait at The Diplomat paysite about the inferiority of the F-35, titled "Why the F-35 Isn’t Good Enough for Japan" which argues in part:

"..While the F-35 retains some radar evading capabilities, its radar cross section is over ten times greater than that of the F-22 making it far less survivable — leading some analysts to term it a “pseudo stealthy” fighter. The F-35 has less than half the range of the larger F-22 and lacks the Raptor’s advanced long ranged air-to-air missiles, which for [Japan] an archipelago nation separated from its potential adversaries by vast seas are major shortcomings.

As a single engine light platform with a small arsenal of just four air-to-air missiles, restricted to a below average speed of Mach 1.6 and a very low altitude relative to the Raptor, the F-15J, and elite twin engine Chinese fighters, the F-35 hardly presents an adequate solution to counter China’s growing fleet of J-11 fighters — let alone more advanced platforms more recently deployed by Beijing such as the Su-35 or J-20. Indeed, it [the F-35] was never designed for such an air superiority role.

...With Tokyo unable to acquire the F-22 and with none of its allies producing a fighter capable of replacing its aging F-15 fleet, Japan sought to develop a fighter indigenously to fulfill an advanced air superiority role and match China’s latest heavy fighters such as the J-11D and J-20. The program, at prototype stages known as the Mitsubishi Shinshin X2, saw the fist flight of its technology demonstrator in April 2016..."

"Abraham Ait is a military analyst and founder of Military Watch Magazine."

See the WHOLE EXCELLENT THE DIPLOMAT ARTICLE a Paysite well worth subscribing to.

Following Submarine Matters’ publication of ANZAC Day Songs an Anonymous commenter has recounted the sacrifice of Australian soldier William (Bill) Doolan.

The Ambonese people (living on Ambon island in Indonesia) have a song about Doolan set to the tune “The Rose In Her Hair” (see Youtube below). Doolan single handedly held up a Japanese advance in Ambon in early 1942, during World War Two. Driver/Private William Doolan served in the 2/21^stAustralian Battalion, which made up much of "Gull Force".

Gull Force soldiers brought the tune “The Rose In Her Hair” to the Ambonese, who put new lyrics to it in remembrance of Doolan’s last stand. The Youtube version above is sung by Simani
("Sim and I") a Newfoundland and Labrador (Canadian) traditional music group.
---

The Morwell Advertiser (newspaper of Victoria, Australia) published a front page articledated December 13, 1945 with the words:

"Song of Doolan" The following extract from "Ambon News" of 7th November [1945], tells the epic story of a Morwell boy...Driver Tom Doolan, the son of Mr. Tom Doolan and the late Mrs. Doolan, was born, reared and educated in Morwell, from where he enlisted.

"The original song 'Rose In Her Hair', was brought first to Ambon by the Australian [Gull Force] in 1942, and it was a song that the Ambonese have heard [the Australians] singing while working on the roads as prisoners-of-war. [the Ambonese started singing the tune themselves, in Ambonese Malay in which the name “Doolan” could be distinguished.

"Not far from the [Tantui, on Ambon] beside a track leading to the hills stands a grave, and over it a wooden cross marked:

VX 35406 Dvr. Doolan, W. T., 2/21 Bn. K.I.A. 1/2/42.

[When the Japanese Army were invading Ambon in January/February 1942 Doolan] was alone when he made his last stand. High in a Gandaria tree near the Batoegantoeng River, he built a machine gun nest and waited in it with his gun aimed on the bend of the road.

"Three trucks full of Japanese soldiers came roaring up the narrow track, and as they passed, Doolan poured the devastating fire at point blank range. The Japanese casualties were staggering. Doolan stayed where he was, waiting. Then some hours later, Japanese snipers who were sent out to pick him off, found his hiding place, and he was shot through the back of the head, crashing through the branches on to the ground, dead.

Then the Japanese moved on, and the Ambonese came back rescued his body and laid it to rest. To this day-they tend his grave...Here it is in Australian translation:

"On the first day of February. An Australian soldier climbed into his strong post; Thousands of soldiers of Japan lay killed and wounded. Shot by the great guns, machine guns and rifles Of the Australians on Ambon.

One Australian named Doolan

Had killed many men of Japan

He did not retreat or withdraw

Until at last he was killed alone

An Australian named Doolan

Died by the side of the road

His grave is under a Gandaria tree

The tale is told everywhere on Ambon

An Australian named Doolan

Died by the bullets from the men of Japan

Calling his mother, father, wife and children

But they could not hear him.

Here is further reading about the Ambonese, Gull Force and Bill Doolan, scroll a third way down this pdf fileto the subheading about Doolan “He inspired a war chart [chant]”

An Anonymous and Pete

North Korea is reportedly smuggling weapons and drugs (see Youtube above) in exchange for UN sanction banned products like oil or cash.

---

ARTICLE

DEFENCE CONNECT April 30, 2018 reports https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/strike-air-combat/2220-surveillance-aircraft-to-deploy-to-japan

“A Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft will deploy to Japan to monitor North Korean vessels suspected of transferring prohibited goods in defiance of UN sanctions... Australia will work with both Canada and the United States in its role to uphold this pressure, with reports suggesting the P-8A Poseidon will operate out of the US’ Kadena Air Base in Japan...”

See WHOLE DEFENCE CONNECT ARTICLE

COMMENT/BACKGROND

This Australia and Canadian decision to use aircraft to monitor and deter North Korean sanction busting/smuggling is designed to put additional on North Korea in the runup to the Trump-Kim Jong-un meeting. This meeting may take place in the North-South Korea demiliturized zone, perhaps in late May 2018.

The US, South Korea and Japan are likely to have used patrol aircraft for many years to monitor North Korean ship smuggling. But this effort has probably been increased.

Kadenais a huge air base (employing or contracting nearly 18,000 Americans and more than 4,000 Japanese ) on the Japanese island of Okinawa.

The US is likely deploying E-3B/C Sentries or P-8s as part of this activity. Canada may deploy a (or some) P-3 derivative CP-140 Auroras.

US, South Korean and Japanese submarines could also track North Korea smuggling activities.

See The Guardian, March 31, 2018, North Korea smuggling: dozens of ships and companies blacklisted by UN Wherein North Korean shipping companies that smuggle are “blacklisted” with their assets frozen, global (cannot enter) port bans and deregistered (including removal of insurance cover). Police, coastguards or navies stopping and searching North Korea vessels is less publicized.

Pete

Continuing on from http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/f-35-inferior-to-5th-even-4-generation.html on the F-35s weaknesses.

One issue less covered is the inability of the F-35 to, "supercruise" like F-22s (sustained cruising at supersonic speed without afterburner).

Wiki advises: “The [F-35’s F135 or F136 engine is] not designed to supercruise.^[57] However, the F-35 can briefly fly at Mach 1.2 for 150 miles without the use of an afterburner.”

Japanese F-35s will probably need to travel supersonic to intercept Chinese jetfighters in many situations. In addition to the afterburner being used for takeoff Japanese F-35s will likely need to stay on afterburner during most long distance supersonic travel. From the Japanese home islands or from Okinawa supersonic flight may be essential for successful interception of Chinese jetfighters over many parts of the East China Sea including the "Senkakus".

Use of afterburner causes a large infrared signature, observable from Chinese satellites and high flying drones. Minimising heat signature is an important requirement of stealth.

Afterburning also uses up jetfuel quickly compared to aircraft with supercruise ability..

Fortunately China and Russia are also having trouble developing (or reverse engineering) supercruise capable jet engines for their stealth jets - see

- https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/india-pulls-out-of-joint-stealth-fighter-project-with-

russia/ (paysite) India dropping out of Russian PAK FA stealth project

and

- http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/chinas-chengdu-j-20-shows-little.html

Jet flight from Japanese home islands is a long way from Senkakus/Diaoyu dispute (Map courtesy Chinese Defence Ministry, EIA and Yonhap.)

---

Pete

Quite an impressive Pompeo CV. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-03/mike-pompeo-and-ceremony-us-diplomats-get-their-swagger-back/9721736

And as former CIA Director Pompeo remains very influential at Langley as well.

Trump, Pompeo and Bolton all embody the Doctrine that America no longer need be apologetic. A small essay (written in January 2017) pushing the Doctrine http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=18789

Pete

Today's headlines are reportedly new discoveries of Chinese missiles being installed on some Spratly Islands/Reefs, in the southern portion of the South China Sea (SCS). This particularly includes Fiery Cross, Subi and Christmas Reefs. Reports of Chinese missiles and jetfighters in the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the SCS (especially Woody Island) go back to 2015-16. (The 2018 map above is courtesy libertyunyielding.com provided by KQN).

China's YJ-12 anti-ship missiles being installed on its Spratly SCS islands/reefs may have a range of 295 nmi. The YJ-12 footprints (see map) extend from the Philippine territorial waters and most of its Palawan Island in the East to about 50 nmi off the Vietnam coast in the East.

Even more Chinese range extending is the possibility that anti-ship and AA missile armed Chinese

J-11 (Flanker B++) fighters, observed on Woody Island since 2015, could be rotationally based on airstrips on Fiery Cross, Subi and Christmas. The J-11 has a very wide combat radius of 810 nmi.

Adding to China's Spratly island power is the reportedly new introduction of "the HQ-9B long-range, surface-to-air missiles [above] [that] could target aircraft, drones and cruise missiles within 160 nautical miles."

The presence of these Chinese missiles will likely make the US and Australia hesitant in staging ship and especially aircraft FONOPs across the South China Sea (SCS). The missiles will add to the anxiety of Southeast Asian nations and Taiwan that compete against each other and China in the Spratly and Paracel islands' SCS disputes.

Pete

Since this article“Soumarsov” short for “Sous-marins soviétiques” (Soviet Submarines) has steered me in the direction of more accurate information on Russian submarines. The website Soumarsov.eu is in French with lots of Russian. But these no longer present language barriers, due to:

- on-site “Translate” popups, or

- once in the site right-click mouse to Translate, and/or

- by playing around in the Google Translate box/fields.

An issue that I know keeps submarine aficionados up at night is whether Russia will go to the trouble of fitting its 5 later model Borey 955A SSBNs, not with 16 SLBMs, but with 20. A myth persists on English language websites that from the 4thBorey/Borei (Project 955) SSBN onwards 20 SLBM silos will be fitted.

Russian Wikipedia, on Russian Subs, Better Than English

See English Wikipedia:

“Starting from the fourth hull, all submarines of the Borei class will have 20 missile tubes each, versus 16 for the first three boats.”

But see Russian Wikipedia, which provides a more accurate description of Project 955 Borey Submarines. Once in the Russian site wait 10 seconds for any "Translate" popup or right-click mouse to Translate. Note in the right sidebar “Armament” is:

“16 missiles of the D-30 complex ^[6] , SL -30 SS-NX-30 Bulava Number of missiles: 16 (project 955), 16 (project 955A) ^[7]”

So 20 Bulava SLBMs is old news, perhaps encouraged by the glory days of 20 SLBM Typhoons(confusingly called "Akulas" in Russian).

A little More Primary Sources

Returning to Boreys the 16 SLBM original intention stretches back to 2010 (see last paragraph).

Since 2013 Russian military-industrial specialists have made is clear that the current 16 SLBM silos will be retained for all Boreys. See:

February 2013’s https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130220/923813018.htmlthen right-click mouse to “Translate to English” New "Borey-A" nuclear submarines will be armed with 16, not 20 "Bulavami" [Bulava SLBMs]... "The 955A project differs from the classic Borey [plain] (Project 955), but not in the number of missiles on board - there [will remain] 16. Accordingly, the displacement of the boat will remain the same," the representative of the military industrial complex said. [see much more on Borey-A improvements]

and

Also Russian, April 2013 https://www.newsru.com/russia/13apr2013/bulavaminus.html

“The [SSBNs] of the upgraded project 955A (Borey-A) will carry 16 Bulava [SLBMs] rather than 20, as previously planned, a source in the Russian defense industry told Interfax on Saturday. This will [permit later model Boreys to be built] faster and cheaper.

[which continues] “”"A few days ago at the state level, the final decision was made that all five [Borey 955As] will be armed with 16 ballistic missiles...”

...to add four missile silos, it is necessary to extend the hull of the [Boreys] by 10 meters, to make other structural alterations in them, which would make the [Boreys] heavier and bulky.

The decision on missile armament of the modernized "Boreys" was also taken in view of the trend in the construction of strategic submarines by the leading maritime powers. The development of new missile submarines does not focus on a large number of missile silos, but on ensuring combat stability and survival of boats in the course of combat patrolling.

"16 rockets are enough to launch a nuclear strike against “Borya” [which Pete takes to mean “You know who!" ie America] the most important thing is to covertly go into combat positions and launch missiles for designated purposes." What's the point if a boat with 20 rockets is discovered and destroyed by the enemy without having to launch."

For further background and diagrams (like the Borey above) see Soumarsov’s https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/955/955.htm

PETE COMMENT

One thought is that the US and Russia may see zero sum game threats (meaning "one person's gain is anothers loss") from North Korea (NK) and China building more nuclear warheads. Say 1,000 for China?

It is possible then the rising NK and Chinese capabilities would cause:

- the US to fit or retrofit 10m to 20m plugs (for 4 to 8 more SLBMs respectively) on to its new 16
SLBM future Columbia class SSBNs

- Russia might then retrofit 10m or 20m plugs onto its Boreys for the same purpose.

I think, instead the US would build additional Columbia and Russia additional Boreys all retaining 16 SLBMs. To fit or retrofit 10m or 20m plugs would mean many major adjustments would need to be made to the subs to maintain acceptable Columbia/Borey handling, steering and above all stealth.

Soumarsov and Pete

In 2017 a US Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey and a US Navy Seahawk landed and took-off from Australian Landing Helicopter Dock (part mini-carrier) HMAS Adelaide. (Photo courtesy Royal Australian Navy)

---

In an Australian-US reaction to rising Chinese activity in some South Pacific islands Australian Government owned ABC Newsreports May 5, 2018 that:

"American marines will soon embed on Australia's largest warship [HMAS Adelaide] for a tour of Pacific island nations, as concerns grow among western allies over Beijing's rising influence in the region.

The ABC can reveal preparations are almost complete for the Australian Defence Force's Joint Task Group mission, centred on the amphibious [Canberra class] Landing Helicopter Dock, HMAS Adelaide.

In a statement, Defence Minister Marise Payne said planning for "Indo-Pacific Endeavour 18" had been underway since late last year.

"IPE 18 is a major activity for the Australian Defence Force, and aims to promote security in our near region through a series of bilateral and multilateral engagements with our regional partners, as well as training and capacity-building activities," Senator Payne told the ABC.

The Minister said Royal Australian Navy ships HMAS Adelaide, HMAS Melbourne, HMAS Toowoomba and HMAS Success would take part "in a range of training and engagement activities in Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Samoa and the Solomon Islands"..."

See WHOLE ABC NEWS ARTICLE

Pete

Submarine Matters has been searching for hard to find data on diesels used by current Chinese submarines. It appears David Ross's book (below) is quite reliable as a source. This on the basis of the apparent accuracy of all his coverage of nuclear and diesel electric submarines.

According to Ross China's Type 039 Song Submarine has 4 x MTU 16V 396S E84 Diesels with a 7 blade propeller, the Song is believed to displace around 2,286 tonnes (submerged). See:

David Ross, The World's Greatest SUBMARINES: An Illustrated History, Amber Books Ltd, London, UK 2016, indicated on pages 181 and 182. Also see Ross's October 2017 Edition on Amazon.

It is not yet known whether China's follow-on Type 039A/041 Yuan, with submerged displacement of around 3,550 tonnes, has 4, 5, or 6 MTU 396s or MTU 4000s .

Competitors to the West (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) Submarine Propulsion Table

Country/ Company	Type/ Details	Diesel engine	Motor, Propeller AIP (if fitted)	Alternatives
North Korea	Golf / Sinpo class derivative	1 to 3 E390ZC-1? Russian Golf class given to NK with 3 × diesels originally		MTU 16V396SE84 or MAN SEMT Pielstick
China	Ming class, Type 033	1 x E390ZC-1		MTU 16V396SE84 or MAN SEMT Pielstick
China	Song class (Type 039) & Yuan class (Type 039A or 41)	Likely use of 4 x MTU 16V396SE84 2 x MTU 20V4000M diesels are already being offered by China in its warships, eg. the P18 export version of China’s Type 056 corvette	Songs have a 7 bladed skewed propeller. In future Yuans may have permanent magnet motors,	4 x MTU 16V396SE84 Diesels (see Ross above) built by Yuchai Group . China may bring in MTU 4000s given ita new MTU factory and see MTU Report
Russia	Kilo class	2 x Kolomensky Zavod diesels see 2 1DL42 (ChN 30/38) last sentence & see whole document	1 x Elektrosila motor Russian. Permanent magnet motors may be installed on new Improved Kilo 636s	Likely to use 4 x MTU 16V396SE84 or Kolomensky Zavod diesel D500?
Russia	Lada/Amur class, just 1 testbed	1 or 2 x Kolomensky Zavod diesels V8D49 (and/or ED-2) ChN26/26 also see Russ site on D49	Elektrosila motor? on permanent magnets” For future Amur class permanent magnet motors are planned. AIP being developed	Kolomensky Zavod diesel D500?
Iran	Kilo class	2 x Kolomensky Zavod dieselssee 2 1DL42 (ChN 30/38) last sentence & see whole document	Elektrosila motor?	Kolomensky Zavod diesel D500?

wispywood2344 has provided diagrams for the XF9-1 jet engine under development for Japan's future stealth air superiority fighter F-3, including sideview XF9-1 jet engine (above) and

the engine's XVN3-1 thrust vectoring in pitch-axis nozzle (below).

Drawing from wispywood2344's comments and Pete's own ideas:

After the US rejected the friendly alliance measure of exporting the F-22 stealth air superiority fighter to all countries (notably Japan and Australia) countries have reacted in different ways. Japanese strategy may be to:

1. spend (or grudgingly waste) a large amount of money on developing (or reinventing a F-22 clone)
indigenous F-3 or multinational stealth air superiority fighter. This is a similar situation to the
special US nuclear assitance to the UK Agreement (1958) - but now isolationist America
downgrades alliances, despite the China threat...or

2. Japan discusses buying 25 extra 25 F-35As on top of the 42 F-35A Japan is already buying. Also
Japan might buy some F-35B carrier jump-jet aircraft purchases. Such extra money may entice
Lockheed Martin to be more cooperative in assisting the future F-3 or joint fighter project.

SUPERCRUISE JET ENGINES

Probably the most difficult aspect after full stealth integration is achieving the ability to supercruise (especially over Mach 1.5). That is remain supersonic without highly infra-red obvious afterburners. Fighters with supercruise capability include F-22, Typhoons, Gripens, Rafales and possible Su-35s (see list). Supercruise also means longer range because the high fuel use afterburner(s) are not used.

Significantly the F-35 is too underpowered to truly supercruise. The F-35 is considerably heavier (ie. poorer power to weight ratio) than single engine lightweight fighters (especially the F-16) that it replaces.

China has not yet developed its WS-15 supercruise engine for its J-20 and WS-13 for its J-31 stealth aircraft projects.

The Japanese Air Force is proceeding with the deployment of F-35A as a successor to F-4 Phantoms scheduled to completely retire by around 2020.

Apart from this, since the retirement of the Mitsubishi F-2 (F-16 derivative) is scheduled to begin around 2030, the Japanese Ministry of Defense has conducted research and technology development on a future Mitsubishi "F-3" stealthy air superiority fighter as a successor.

If Japan's pays Lockheed Martin enough maybe much F-22 intellectual property and assistance can find its way to the F-3 - probably in about 2033. (Graphics courtesy Pakistan Defence)

As part of "F-3" technology development, production and testing of Japanese supercruise engines are in progress, with a prototype "XF9-1" due to be completed around mid 2018.[1]

The XF9-1 has been developed since 2008 with the aim to supercruise at thrust, speed and distances similar to the US F-22's F119 engine. See [2].

[1] http://www.mod.go.jp/atla/img/kousouken/news_20170628.pdf
[2] text and graphics on advanced XF9-1 jet engine
http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/archives/55607907.html

BACKGROUND/FIGURES

wispywood2344 indicates the Japanese Ministry of Defense wishes future performance for the indigenously built XF 9-1, at sea level, can be nearly equivalent to the F-22's F 119 engine, ie:

XF 9-1

- Maximum wet thrust (with afterburner) >147 kN each and

- Maximum dry thrust >108 kN each.

In comparison the F-22's 2 × Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100

Maximum wet thrust (afterburner) : >156 kN each
Maximum dry thrust: 116 kN each

F-22 and F-3 performance:
Maximum supercruise: Mach 1.82.
Range: 2,900 km
Combat radius: 800 km

In any case the corporate-political power of Lockheed Martin (LM) will pressure the US government and other countries to buy all the LM built F-35s possible in the 2020s. Then, in the late 2020s, LM will re-establish production lines for the F-22s countries really wanted - rather than the underpowered F-35. That is production of high spec US F-22s and low spec export F-22s to maximise US strategic market power.

Maybe by then, the attractions of Chinese competition will be too much for America's LM directed foreign export policies...

wispywood2344 and Pete

On Naval Group (was DCNS) stating the Australian Future Submarine "Shortfin" was based on Barracuda - see April 2016 Youtube above.
---

In October 2017 it was reportedNaval Group's (was DCNS) Executive Director, Australian Submarine Program, Mr Billig, said Naval Group is designing the Shortfin "from scratch". This directly contradicted Gerard Autret's and Sean Costello's both of Naval Group's statement of April 8, 2016 that the Australian Future Submarine was using the Barracuda AND Scorpene as design references. Naval Group's statement of April 8, 2016 included the categorical words:

"As the nuclear Barracuda is designed to operate globally, shares the same hull form as the Shortfin Barracuda and is also compliant with nuclear safety standards, it is very suitable for the Australian requirement. This avoids many years of design studies for validation of equipment such as pumps and hoses, and allows the designer to take margins for higher performances elsewhere in the ship."

So this decoupling of the Australian Future Submarine design from Barracuda presumably adds:

"many years of design studies for validation of equipment such as pumps and hoses,

And will not allow:

"the designer to take margins for higher performances elsewhere in the ship."

It is difficult for Naval Group to decouple Barracuda from the Australian Future Submarine because of their similar length and the same diameter/beam.

See Julien Kerr’s article of October 2017 in The Australian:

"Agreement has been reached on the length, diameter and tonnage of the Royal Australian Navy’s Future Submarine, an important milestone that will allow further progress on the concept design phase of the $50 billion program.

This was disclosed in the course of an industry briefing at the recent Pacific 2017 naval exposition in Sydney, although neither the Defence Department nor French submarine designer and constructor Naval Group would release specific details.

However, informed sources said the agreed dimensions were a length of 97 metres [Barracuda 99.4 metres], a diameter of 8.8m [Barracuda Beam 8.8 metres], and a submerged displacement of 4500 tonnes.”

Has Australian Future Submarine design been politically, but not technically, decoupled from Barracuda due to severe delays in the Barracuda Project?

On delays French wikipedia tries to explain the delay:

"The Barracuda definition phase started in October 1998. Then the design in 2002 for tests then planned in 2008 and an entry into service in 2010. In 2015, the entry into service of the first copy was postponed until 2018 following budgetary difficulties, then, in 2016, postponed until 2019."

The Barracuda severe delay may now amount to 3 further years (from no launch yet) until 2021 entry into service (ie: commissioning of the first of class). This omen provides little time for the Australian Future Submarine to profit from real world testing of Barracuda's hydrodynamic, sonar performance, anechoic tiles, photonic masts and of many other parameters before the Australian Future Submarine Project is supposed to cut steel in 2022.

More tomorrow on the actual reason Barracuda has been delayed and hence politically decoupled from the Australian Future Submarine Project.

Pete

Might this be the first almost externally complete Barracuda submarine (the Suffren) at Cherbourg? Note the X-plane tail, which no other French submarines have. Photo recorded May 7, 2018 courtesy le marin.

---

Following the previous article - the main reason for the delay in launching France’s new Barracuda SSN is the delay in developing an adequate reactor for Barracuda. On the Barracuda is English wiki but see French article with important added content. France does not have the advantages of Britain in relying on some US technology transfer to develop world's best practice reactors for submarine.

If the testing on the not yet launched Barracuda has not been completed by 2020 it will be difficult for Naval Group to adequately design and "cut steel" on a settled Australia's Future Submarine prototype by Australia's 2022 milestone.

France's current K-15 reactor (fitted to the Triomphant class SSBN - see sidebar) is reportedly 42 years old (see page 54 at [1] below). The K-15's old age may be a pointer to how slowly a new reactor (project started in 2003? [1]) adequate for Barracuda may be developed.

This slow development of a new submarine reactor may have been limited by France's policy of using dual (civilian-military) use nuclear facilities reliant on low enriched Uranium [LEU] <20 235="" nbsp="" reactor="" solutions.="" span="" u="">20>

Instead of the K15's 7-10 year till Uranium refueling cycle (which means lower submarine availability), France may be aiming for at least 15 years between refuels. This is still short of the full and modern 33 year life of submarine reactor core solution being used in US and UK submarines which require Highly Enriched Uranium of around 90% U235. Under the 1958 US–UK Mutual [Nuclear] Defense Agreement (see 3rd paragraph) Britain has drawn heavily from US submarine reactor technology from the beginning.

France does not want to repeat some UK reactor deficiences. France would have observed Britain's problems using Vanguard SSBN's PWR2 reactor in the Astute SSN. More specifically the mismatch between the powerful PWR2 and Astute's undersized steam turbine has prevented Astute reaching full power [2]. That British PWR2 will only drive the Astutes at a deficient speed of 29-30 knots when around 35 knots would fulfil Astute's mission requirements. The opposition, Russia's Akula (see sidebar) and Yasen can travel at 35 knots.

French Submarine Reactor Table Based on [1] page 54.

Class using reactor	Reactor on French Nuclear Submarine
Redoutable class SSBN	Called Pressurised Water Reactor “PWR” in English. 110 MW source (no K name)
Rubis class SSN	CAS48 = K48) Rated at 48 MW giving just 7 MW propulsion (confirmed here). For submerged speed of 25 knots). K48 must be recharged every 6 to 7 years
Triomphant class SSBN	Resulting fleet reactor: K15. The K15 design may go back to 1976 that is 42 years by 2018. [see page 54 [1]Lobner]. K15 rated at 150 MW.
Barracuda / Suffren class SSN	Reactor construction started in 2003, with land test module completed in 2005. Intended to replace K15.

[1] Information on French SSBNs and SLBMs are on pages 49-83 of Peter Lobner’s 60 Years of Marine Nuclear Power: 1955-2015 - Part 4 - Other Nuclear Marine Nations, August 2015. large PDF (around 20MB) http://www.lynceans.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Part-4_UK-France-Others-60-yrs-of-marine-nuc-power.pdf Information on K15 is mainly on page 54.

[2] see page 203 of David Ross's, The World's Greatest SUBMARINES: An Illustrated History, Amber Books Ltd, London, UK 2016.

Pete

So, as things stand it is likely that the serious delay in Naval Group's Barracuda / Suffren class Project has added at least 2 years to Australia's Future Submarine Naval Group Shortfin Barracuda Project (see previous articles here and here). Although in any case there are major differences (including speed, range, center of gravity and hotel load etc) between the nuclear propelled Barracuda and Australia's future conventional diesel electric Shortfin.

The other Naval Group submarine on which Shortfin is based is the Scorpene. Scorpene is an old design and less than half the size of Shortfin. This means that Shortfin will have many differences - especially internal - compared to Scorpene.

With an old Scorpene design and not let launched Barracuda partial testbed for the future Shortfin design what can Naval Group do to further the Shortfin design phase. This should include:

- Computer simulations of Shortfin performance (already ongoing)

- Development and study of major components, especially deisels (eg. MAN working with
Kawasaki or perhaps MTU 396 or 4000. Comparison of LAB and LIB battery advances, and

- Technology transfer from certain, more modern, closer to launch or not yet launced SSK projects,
any ideas?

Pete

I see the Shortfin Barracuda / Australian Future Submarine (AFS) as being delayed by 2 years. That is, the design phase might extend until first cutting of steel in 2024. The main reason is the delay in launching and testing of the partial baseline Barracuda/Suffren SSN.

To reduce the likely 2 year delay French Government majority owned Naval Group can still pursue the strategies mentioned yesterday:

In terms of technology transfer - cooperative or otherwise:

A. Spain's Navantia may be willing to sell technical innovations and test data involving the now
enlarged S-80 Plus (see English and Spanish wiki). Such information is especially valuable
as the S-80 Plus evolved from Spain's early involvement with France in the Scorpene program in
the 1990s. Since then Navantia has made many technical improvements. The S-80 Plus is also of
interest because it is the first 3,000+ tonne, very modern European submarine, to be near
launch stage.

B. Naval Group is not the only major contractor involved in the Australian Future Submarine.
Lockheed Martin (LM) is the Australian Future Submarine's Combat System Integrator doing
30% - 40% of the work.

LM is also the S-80 Plus's Combat System Integrator. This makes the Combat System solutions
LM has developed for the S-80 Plus highly relevant to the Australian Future Submarine. In LM's
solutions further Combat System similarities include the Harpoon missiles the S-80 Plus and
Australian Future Submarine both deploy and both have expressed a future interest in being
capable of torpedo tube launching Tomahawk land attack and long range anti-ship missiles. See
more tomorrow on the S-80 Plus.

Naval Group, assisted by the French Government, can also gather information about other 3,000+ tonne SSK's from other nations/companies, including:

C. TKMS' new design for 3,000+ tonne SSKs in response to South Korea's 3,000 tonne KSS-III
request and Israel's (probably 3,000+) three Dolphin 3s that are on order.

D. Japan's current and future 3,000+ tonne Soryus are also worthy of close study and perhaps
negotiation especially concerning their Kawasaki diesels and future Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)

E. Innovations in Sweden's future 2,000 tonne A26s would also be of interest.

F. Russia and China are also developing SSKs with some features of interest.

All this can feed French computer databases and be useful for ongoing and future simulations involving the Australian Future Submarine. The simulations are part of an information loop that throw up further Naval Group requirements for foreign submarine information. Information gathering is also useful for future large SSK competitions that Naval Group is eyeing.

Pete

Trump treasures KGB Honey Trap advice: Russia has best "hookers" in world.

Aussie Warships in South China Sea warned by Chinese Navy, Naughty Visiting Vietnam

Trial About Madsen Allegedly Murdering Wall on a Submarine, About to be Decided

ANZAC Day Songs

Russian Submarine Projects - Seeing Yasen as Too Delayed Response to Seawolf

Tipping Britain's Type 26 to Win Future Frigate Decision - Some Diplomatic Groundwork

F-35 inferior to 5th & even 4++ Generation Air Superiority Fighters

Song of Bill Doolan's Last Stand, Gull Force, Ambon, WWII, 1942

Australia Canadian & US Surveillance Aircraft to Monitor North Korean Smuggling

F-35s Need to Use UnStealthy Afterburners to Stay Supersonic

Pompeo brings "Swagger" to State - and CIA

Chinese Missiles of May, Spratly Islands & Paracels, South China Sea

Worries Resolved :) All 8 Borey SSBNs will have 16 SLBMs

US Marines Soon To Embed On Australian Warship for Pacific Tour

China's Type 039 Song Submarine has MTU 16V 396 SE84 Diesels

US Losing Alliances - Japan Paying to Reinvent the F-22

Why Naval Group Decoupled Australian Future Submarine from Barracuda

Launch of French Barracuda SSN delayed by Reactor

Naval Group Steps to Reduce 2 Year Australian Shortfin Project Delay

Naval Group Information Gathering to Reduce Delays in Aus Future Sub