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The S-80 Plus to Be the 1st 3,000+ tonne EuroSub Launched

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Artwork of the future S-80 Plus courtesy maritimeherald.com. Estimated range/speed 10,000nm at 10 knots snorting. Has 6 x 533 mm torpedo tubes with total of 20? HWT DM2A4 torpedoes, Harpoon missiles, mines. Crew/Complement 32 (+ 8 Special Forces depending on mission)
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In the early-mid 1990s France and Spain jointly undertook a Scorpene S-80 Program. However events and different requirements led to a split between established submarine partners France and Spain.

The end of the Cold War cost cutting ("peace dividend") ended French interest in buying a high specs Scorpene S-80 for French Navy use. Instead France developed and successfully marketed an export Scorpene to Chile, Malaysia, Brazil and India. France relied soley on SSNs (Rubis class and soon the Barracudas) as its attack submarine arm.

Meanwhile Spain relied on its Agosta S-70 SSKs. By the late 1990s-early 2000s Spain wanted a much larger higher specs, second generation AIP, S-80 submarine for Spanish Navy use.

In 2010-2012 Submarine Matters' sitemeter picked up substantial Australian Government interest in considering the future S-80 for Australia's Future Submarine. But then, in May 2013, Navantia announced that a serious weight imbalance design flaw had been identified in the S-80 (under development) which would delay the delivery of the first S-80 submarine Isaac Peral 
(S-81) for the Spanish Navy until possibly 2017.

More specifically S-80 program management inadequacies did fully not take into account an extra 75 to 100 tonnes which prevented the simulated S-80 resurfacing after diving. The extra weight may have mainly been in the Lockheed Martin integrated combat system (sensors, databases and especially weapons (torpedo tubes and about 20 HWT torpedos / missiles).

In June 2013 Spain's Navantia hired US nuclear submarine builder General Dynamics Electric Boat to help solve the S-80's excess weight problem. The solution was that  S-80 needed to be substantially enlarged to achieve buoyancy:

-   from 71m long, and 2,200 tonnes surfaced (see "S-80" diagram above)

-   to 81m long, 3,200 tonnes (surfaced), 3,426 tonnes (submerged) (see "S-80 Plus" diagram above)

With these mistakes and uncertainty Navantia S-80 was excluded from the competition for Australia's Future Submarine (decided in April 2016). But the S-80 now has many characteristics worthy of technology transfer.

Now that the US and Spain have sunk considerable effort in making the S-80 the most modern large SSK approaching launch it may be useful for Naval Group to negotiate a substantial technology transfer from the S-80 to Australia's Future Submarine program. Australia's Future Submarine will need to be larger, of course, sufficient for a crew of 60 + 8 Special Forces. 

A useful source on Scorpene-S-80 history is page 5 of The Market for Submarines Product Code #F673 A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by: Forecast International (2010?) at http://www.ForecastInternational.com/samples/F673_CompleteSample.pdf.

Pete

Chinese Navy's New J-15D Electronic Attack Carrier Aircraft

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The photo at top may be the J-15D Chinese carrier aircraft or the very similar J-16D Chinese airforce aircraft. These perform electronic attack or jamming an art first perfected by the UK and then US (Photo courtesy China's Daily Express
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COMMENT

Just as the or electronic attackEA-18G "Growler" provides electronic warfare/jamming support to  enhance the stealth capabilities of US aircraft China is also developing the J-15D and J-16D EA fast jets to obscure not yet fully developed Chinese J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters.

China's EA aircraft are just two examples of China using the world's second highest defense budget (SIPRI estimates US$228 Billion for 2017) to build the essential military backup capabilities for a formidable defence force. In contrast Russia conventional defence posture may be more threat and propaganda because Russia only has a $66 Billion budget. 

There are many synonyms for Electronic Attack including 
-  Electronic Countermeasures (ECM)
-  Electronic Warfare (EW)
-  "Jamming" and "Electronic Decoys" and "Window or Chaff" may be the oldest
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a term becoming more popular.

ARTICLE

The information below mainly draws from China's Daily Express article of April 24, 2018, on the  new EA J-15D:

A New Carrier Aircraft With Electronic Attack Capabilities Appears

The Chinese navy (PLAN) has acquired a new type of carrier aircraft, the J-15D. The J-15D is a carrier-based aircraft that mounts electronic attack pods on the tips of its wings, underwings and perhaps centerline. The Chinese navy J-15D is similar to the Chinese Airforce J-16D (introduced in 2015). 

The J-15Ds and J-16Ds serve the same purpose as the EA-18G Growler electronic fighter now deployed in the US and Australian defence forces.  

[Pete Comment: For other Western countries to get full value out of their F-35s they may well need to purchase equally high priced Growlers!]

[Pete comment: The main difference between the naval carrier J-15D and the airforce J-16D is the 
J-15D would have a tail arrestor hook, stronger shock absorbers and some airframe hardening for the "controlled crash" arrested recovery operations. The naval variant J-15D would have also been developed due to commonalities of parts, systems and regular upgrades with China's common carrier jet the J-15.]

The J-15D is a two-seater (pilot and EW officer) fast jet. It carries a variety of new types of pods for reconnaissance, attack/interference and self-defense and can carry Eagle-Strike YJ-91
anti-radiation missiles ARMs. These new pods provide powerful EW capabilities for land based and carrier fighter squadrons.

FURTHER COMMENT


The J-15D with wingtip and underwing electronic pods shown above. Also an underwing Eagle-Strike YJ-91 anti-radiation missile (ARM) is probably displayed. The YJ-91 would certainly have an air-to-surface capability. The YJ-91, or similar ARMs, may have an air-to-air capability, enabling them to hit Western AWACS aircraft at long range (100+ km) (eg. E-2s, E-3s, and AustralianE-7A Wedgetails). (Photo courtesy China's Daily Express ) 

Israel has also developed an effective electronic attack capability. Submarine Matters' recounted Israel's 2007 use of Suter Electronic Jamming for Israel's successful Operation Orchid/Out of the Box airstrike against a Syrian nuclear reactor site - see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2007/10/suter-jamming-our-good-guys.html.

Pete

Chinese Bomber(s) Land on South China Sea Island: US Feigns Surprise

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COMMENT

China has gone one more step in indicating it can deploy bomber power, in a theatrical way, deep into the South China Sea. This puts some more Western ships and Southeast Asian capitals, like Manila and Hanoi, into range of the cruise missiles Chinese H-6K bombers can carry. These capitals were already in range of more easily disguised land based, surface ship based and submarine based Chinese cruise missiles, not to mention IRBMs.

Like the much larger B-52s (in service 1955) the H-6Ks (airframe in service as the Russian Tu-16 in 1954) derive from very old airframes. But it is electronic countermeasures frequently updated in the B-52 and H-6K as well as their reliance on standoff cruise missiles that reduced their vulnerabilities. Their missiles keep them relevant in warfare against moderately armed enemies and they can also drop free fall bombs on less well armed insurgents or "terrorists".

ARTICLE

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported May 19, 2018:

"China angers US after landing warplanes, including H-6K bomber, on South China Sea reef
Pentagon condemns military activity as ‘raising tensions and destabilising the region’

A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force strategic bomber landed for the first time on [Woody Island] in the South China Sea.

...The Chinese air force said in a statement on its website that several bombers, including the H-6K, its most advanced [but deployed by Russia 60 years ago!], had conducted take-off and landing training on an island reef, though it did not specify which one.

Hong Kong-based military observer Song Zhongping [who is really a semi-official spokesman and graduate of the PLA's Second Artillery Engineering University, no less] said the aircraft landed on Woody Island – or Yongxing in Mandarin – the largest of the Paracel group and southernmost of the islands claimed by Beijing in the disputed waterway.

The aim of the exercise was to strengthen China’s military presence in the region, after the US air force flew B-52 bombers there during a so-called routine training mission in April [2018], which Beijing described as “provocative move”, Song said.

The [Chinese] air force said the latest exercise had elevated its abilities of “reaching its full territory, assaulting in full time and space, and striking in full scope”. 

Song...said the next mission for the long-range H-6K strategic bomber, which is reported to have a combat range of up to 3,500km, might be to land on China’s furthest outlying artificial islands.

 “To boost China’s military presence and give the PLA better control in the region, it’s possible the H-6K will fly further in the future, to the airstrips on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs [in the Spratly Islands],” [Song] said.

Each of the three reefs features an airstrip, high-frequency radar and other monitoring equipment, and lighthouses.

“In the future, the air force will conduct regular landings on Woody and the man-made islands, although they are not yet developed enough to be permanent military bases,” Song said..."

BACKGROUND

Woody Island with its now extended bomber capable airport (Photo courtesy AMTI.CSIS.ORG via CNN Philippines)
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The H-6K has a claimed combat radius of 3,500 km (2,200 miles) and can carry up  to six YJ-12 anti-ship missiles and 6 or 7 CJ-10 nuclear or conventional warhead land attack cruise missiles
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In this part unrelated Chinese propaganda video the H-6K appears at:
-  5 secs    taking off possibly from Woody Island airport
-  17s        two H-6Ks flying close
-  25s        H-6K dropping flares as decoys against heat seeking anti-aircraft missiles
-  47s        H-6K flying with J-11s?
-  53s        flying towards Mischief Reef (?) but then perhaps landing on Woody Island(?)

Tomorrow I'll write how the "Woody bomber" ties into China's wider power projection geography. 

Pete

Chinese Bombers Threatening Because they Are highly Visible

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Pete's Comments

So China has publicized the ability of its H-6K bombers to very temporarily operate (ie. land and takeoff) from Woody Island is more symbolic of visible power projection into the South China Sea (SCS) than a fundamentally new threat. 

The whole SCS and surrounding nations can already be hit with more stealth and surprise by Chinese missiles from other platforms, including MRBMs, IRBMs, SLBMs and extended range SLCMs. Chinese surface ships, air-refueled jet fighters and land based cruise missiles on the islands themselves could already fire missiles at some or all of these SCS targets. 

It is highly public threats, even from mainly old technology, very unstealthy, bombers, like the H-6K, that can cause anxiety in nations that have only modest anti-aircraft capabilities and generally no 
anti-missile capabilities. The H-6Ks very visibility represent public and political threats. This is similar to the highly visible threat from US aircraft carrier groups when compared to the invisible and more potent threat from cruise and ballistic missile carrying US submarines.

OTHER COMMENTS

I've added links to useful comments on May 22, 2018 from:

KQN: “China is gradually enforcing its claim on the SCS. The Nine-Dash Line has morphed into a solid line. It is a well thought out strategy, reinforcing your territorial claims with less than subtle threats to neighboring countries, achieving your strategic goals while avoiding open conflicts (which would threaten the economic well being of all). We can already predict H-6K's will be landing next in the Spratly's. Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs all haveclass A runways, as long as the one on Woody. [See Airport Table below]. Several reinforced hangars there are large enough for them. That will put Northern Australia and Guam within range.” [see map below].

and

Josh “The H-6K is aerodynamically similar to previous H-6s and Tu-16s, but the use of modern turbofans (of Russian manufacture - the Soloviev D-30s) give it a much greater range and payload. That said it is still a regional bomber, not an intercontinental one. Australia for instance would be out of practical range of even cruise missiles without midair refueling.”


The upper set of blue-black dots are potential H-6K bomber Paracel Island takeoff points, including Woody Island Air Base [see Table below]. These points put all of the South China Sea, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore within the "combat radii" of the bombers' once the bombers land attack and anti-ship cruise missiles are fired.
(Map courtesy CSIS

The lower set of dots represent H-6K bombers launched from China's Spratly Island air bases (see Table below) with combat radii extended by cruise missiles (and mid-air refueling) are able to hit all of Indonesia as well as Darwin, Australia 

AIR BASES TABLE for Spratly Islands (source) and Woody Island (in Paracel Islands)

Location
Occupied by
Name
Built
Length
Notes
2007
1,200 m (est.)
Military use only. No refuel facilities. [1]
1995
1,367m
Dual-use concrete airport.
2016
3,300m (est.)
Dual-use concrete airport.
China
2016
3,300m (est.)
Dual-use concrete airport.
China
2016
2,700m (est.)
Dual-use concrete airport.
1975
1,300m (est.)
Concrete.[2]
1976-2016
1,200 m (est.)
Military use only.
China

Even in aerial bomber capabilities symbolism counts.

Pete, KQN and Josh

A Disarmed North Korea can expect Another Foreign Invasion

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Causes, effects and doctrines are subtle. 

Before the sure handed statesman Trump and Kim meet or don't meet in Singapore on June 12, 2018 history needs recalling. 

Historical mentions of Korea are overlaid by simple moral assumptions: 

-  North Korea BAD

-  South Korea GOOD.

From the North Korean point of view, its status as the most invaded country in the world justifies a nuclear deterrent to prevent regime change and merely conventional destruction. Would Kim disarm on the word of such statesman as Trump and his neocon Pompeo and "Libyan solution"
 Bolton? What would stop them?

North Korea Most Invaded?

The territory that is now North Korea has been invaded by the Chinese many times, by Mongolians, Manchus twice, Japanese several times, Russians several times, the US three times, by UN forces (including Australians and British) twice and South Korea twice.

North Korea has a nervous relationship with China and 
Russia rather than friendly alliances. North Korea realizes it cannot rely on a nuclear protection guarantee from China.

South Korea was no peace-loving democracy before North Korea invaded it in the 1949 (beginning of the Korean War). The invasion followed frequent South Korea vs North Korean border clashes since 1945.


South Korea's leader, the authoritarian Syngman Rhee, killed between 14,000 and 30,000 of his own people during the Jeju uprising in 1948-49 just before the Korean War [1].

In 1950 Rhee had between 
100,000 and 200,000 South Korean Bodo League prisoners murdered [2].

North Korea's capital, Pyongyang was bombed flat by the US Air Force during the Korea War. 
"By the time of the armistice, 75 percent of Pyongyang's area was destroyed by the conventional bombing campaign, which was part of a broader U.S. bombing effort throughout the country costing the lives of between one and three million North Koreans by the time the war ended [3].

Nuclear disarming North Korea, which is China's buffer zone, could bring on World War Three like nothing else.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeju_uprising and subsequent massacre by South Korean troops.

Collapse of the US - North Korea Talks: Told Ya So!

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On May 24, 2016 Trump announced the cancellation of the US - (Denuclearization of) North Korea Summit which was to be held in Singapore on June 12, 2018

2017, page 9 Pentagon analysis concurs (or visa versa) with the following May 3, 2018 comment on North Korea relying on its nuclear deterrence to prevent regime change: 

"I doubt if the neocon/militant Trump/Pompeo/Bolton would accept total withdrawal from South Korea - especially of THAAD, US aircraft and US SSN and SSGN visits to SK ports.

I think it unlikely Kim would make substantial and verifiable de-nuclearisation efforts. With timing and Devil in the Detail

If NK denuclearised it would leave itself open to "peaceful" democratic occupation by a much more attr[a]ctive wealthy SK

or the risk of a return of overwelming SK and US forces - remembering the fates of disarmed-regime changed Hussein/Iraq and Gaddafi/Libya. 

Also Kim Jong-un (III) would forsake his "dynastic duty" of handing down the grim NK regime to what ever Crown Prince, Kim IV is next.”


FURTHER COMMENT

It was hoped the Summit could be a positive outcome of Trump's hardline negotiating style against North Korea. But now the opportunity has been dashed. The world remains stuck with the Trump Administration's aggressively negative approach on most things. 

Doubts about Zircon hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile

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The Zircon (Graphic courtesy via Russian website.)

I don't know whether the future (late 2020s) Zircon missile proves Russia can solve the heat buildup barrier to sustained hypersonic flight in the dense atmosphere. Maybe it can become hypersonic in its endrun, maybe not. 

India has been talking of a joint Russian hypersonic BrahMos-II (or BrahMos-2) missile project (maybe Indian version of the Zircon?) for years. See Submarine Matters'  2013 article.

Russia's latest submarines may become Zircon capable.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon. There are doubts about Zircon's effectivenes. 



Youtube originally uploaded October 11, 2018
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Pete

Excellent Covert Shores Article on Soviet/Russian Submarine Activity

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H I Sutton at Covert Shores regularly publishes interesting articles on submarines. For example:

Increase in #Russian Submarine Activity of 22 May 2018http://www.hisutton.com/Russian_Submarine_Activity.html

"There have been reports that Russian submarine activity has returned to Cold War levels. This article uses publicly available data to compare recent activity to Cold War levels...." 
See WHOLE CORVERT SHORES ARTICLE



Russian Submarine activity

A useful Table courtesy Covert Shores. It indicates the steep decline in Russian submarine numbers since the Cold War years (1947-1991) with over 400 Russian subs in some years) to many less than 100 since 1991 (eg. 66 in 2016). 

What trends do you see in the Table (eg. more than 200 SSKs in 1980)?

Doc Declassified May 2018, Naval Group's "Australian Industry Plan" LIBs?

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Senator Rex Patrick, writing in Australia’s useful website DEFENCE CONNECT, reports https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/maritime-antisub/2322-a-french-led-lithium-revolution-for-australia: “Naval Group’s recently released Australian Industry Plan[1]gave the strongest indication yet that Australia’s Future Submarines will be powered by lithium-ion batteries. One senator has argued such a decision could allow Defence to act as a catalyst for lucrative commercial opportunities...”

All Following by Pete (generally quoting Australian Government or Naval Group) NOT by Rex Patrick or Defence Connect

[1]the declassified on [May 10 2018] Plan (a very large PDF document, about 26 MB. 60 pages, including graphics) need to download whole Plan onto your computer to rotate some of the tables (eg, page 19 and 21) ) was originally Drafted by November 27, 2015 by Naval Group (then DCNS) and maybe Submission “17”. Up until May 9, 2018 it as classified:

Security Caveats

On top of page immediately below Minister for Defence's Cover letter is the crossed out caveats:

“SENSITVE PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Contract DMO/FSP/00419/2015/Clause – 9.5” [or 9.3]

Then on bottom of page:

“FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
REL – AUS / FRA / GBR / USA”

Pete Comment - it is understandable document was RELeased to AUStralia, FRAnce and USA (with either Lockheed Martin or Raytheon to become Combat System Integrator). But why it was released to “GBR”, presumably Great Britain(?), is a mystery.

Much blacked out redacting follows, like


Some interesting pages of the Plan:

Top Cover Letter indicates document was released by Minister for Defence, Marise Payne letterhead, dated “10 May 2018”

page 19 - Australian Maritime College (AMC) Launceston, Tasmania, Australia, may handle “Hydrodynamics, Naval Design and Maritime Engineering”. Summary Students form French naval engineering establishments may spend 3 to 10 months at AMC on internships.
Defence Material Technology Centre (Victoria, Australia) may handle “Materials and processes” like “welding” and “bounding”.
University of Newcastle (NSW, Australia) may handle “Bacterial and microbiological corrosion”

page 21 [needs rotating]
[Pete Comment – The following Declassified details on Lithium-ion Batteries are 
non-committal. The large, blacked out, redacted bits prevent any conclusion.] Section on “Lithium-ion batteries [mostly black line redacted] DCNS has been working on lithium-ion battery technologies for many years with different partners” [big redaction] Many research initiatives are also occurring in Australia both in the defence space and in adjacent industries that could lead to technology breakthrough. The” [big redaction].

page 42– [list of] “Australian Companies engaged by DCNS” [now Naval Group]

page 50– [number of jobs created] “Figure 13. Anticipated Employment Outcomes from the FSP [Future Submarine Program]”

Much else is of interest.

Comments from submarine competitor countries/companies – eg. Japan, Germany and Sweden - are especially welcome.

Pete

Pick a Number. 100% Rise in Australian Future Sub estimate to $100 Billion

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Andrew Tillett for The Australian Financial Review (AFR), May 29, 2018 reports:



“$100 billion babies: Defence reveals true cost of new submarines for taxpayers”  

"Taxpayers will spend $100 billion to build and operate [Australia's future submarines], [Australian] Defence Department officials have revealed for the first time as they also fended off warnings the naval shipbuilding program was at risk of cost blowouts and delays.


While the $50 billion budget to build the 12 French-designed submarines in Adelaide has been known for several years, Rear Admiral Greg Sammut told Senate estimates on [May 29, 2018] the same amount again would be spent on sustaining the submarines throughout their operating life, although he conceded the costs were yet to be finalised..."


COMMENT

How do you count the costs of a submarine program that may stretch to 2080?

A.  In 2018 dollars or 2080 dollars or somewhere in between? 

B.  In Australian Dollars, or factor exchange rate changes in US dollars or, in 20 years time, in Yuan
      World Currency

C.  Recall that we are not just talking Naval Group (was DCNS) or ASC costs in calculations. A
     quarter or a third of the money will go to Lockheed Martin as Combat Systems Integrator.

D.  What do you include? Inclusions are vital. Cost of:
-  building new shipyard sheds, slips and other facilities
-  costs of personnel in Australia's Defence Department, Navy, Army (for some Special Forces) 
-  cost of building 6 to 12 new submarines? As Australia's Defence Department or Navy try out
   higher numbers (say 12, 10 then 8) before settling for 6 (see my 2014 article). Hence 6 Oberons
   then 6 Collins submarines in the past.
-  "sustainment"(?) does that mean regular maintenance and upgrade costs?
-  training costs
-  some operational costs, eg. special skills (eg. US Navy may be Off-the-Books).

E.  Opportunity costs - for:
-  jobs and regional development (outside Adelaide)
-  money that could have been spent on sorely needed hospitals, schools, "green" energy and mass
    transport 
-  other Airforce, Army and Naval programs (eg. highly developed, future AUVs).

Setting, recording and publishing huge budgets is more a public relations art form than an accounting science.

Pete

A Future Australian-Singaporean Rocket May Provide Nuclear Capability

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COMMENT

As the US Government sends out mixed, often contradictory, signals to allies and opponents, more countries are hedging with research into components maybe for future nuclear capabilities. For example Japan has long been developing and using the 1,500kg payload Epsilon rocket (see context).

Now Australia and Singapore may be entering the beginnings (in 2 decades?) of nuclear (payload) capable rocket development. Multi-stage rockets of sufficient size and range provide dual civilian/military possibilities.

Rocket engine tests, launch pads and test flights are not possible in Singapore's extremely limited
721.5 kmland area, in which  5.612 million people are crowded. The sea around Singapore, crowded with ships, is also ill-suited to be a test range. 

In contrast Australia has used its wide open spaces to test rockets for decades at RAAF Woomera Range Complex, South Australia. Some Australians have also suggested Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Australia, as a potential launch siteCape York is better suited in terms of  Earth rotational physics and avoiding populated areas. This is because Cape York is nearer the Equator and rockets can be fired easterly and more safely over the Coral Sea.

MEDIA RELEASE

Gilmour Space March 2018: 70 kN of thrust (15,700 lbs) generated in what could be the world's largest successful test fire of a single-port hybrid rocket engine.
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"Gilmour Space prepares for suborbital hybrid rocket launch with 75 kN (16,900 lbs) test-fire

May 29, 2018
|

 “Our low-cost launch capability could provide a significant comparative (and competitive) advantage to Australia and Singapore’s new space industry.”

- Adam Gilmour, CEO & Founder, Gilmour Space Technologies

AUSTRALIA & SINGAPORE, MAY 28, 2018 – [Australian-Singaporean] rocket company, Gilmour Space Technologies, has completed a longer duration test-fire of its proprietary hybrid rocket engine, bringing it one step closer to launching Australia and Singapore's first privately-developed commercial rockets to space. 

"This was a 12-second static fire of what will be our first-stage orbital rocket engine. It demonstrated stable thrust, and peaked at 75 kilonewtons (or 16,900 pounds) of force,” said the company’s CEO and Founder, Adam Gilmour. An earlier test in March had generated 70 kN, reportedly then the world’s largest successful test of a single-port hybrid rocket engine.

“75 kN marks a new record for this engine, and is more than what we will need for our coming suborbital and orbital launches,” he added. (Watch test-fire video)

Next stop: Suborbital space

Gilmour Space is planning a suborbital test launch in the third quarter of this year, and is working with the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) to approve the launch from a remote private property in Queensland.

“Our first test rocket launch in mid 2016 was a sub-scale demonstration of our new hybrid engine technology, and its success led to our Series A investment,” he explained. 

“The next launch will be the flight test of a full-scale engine, which we plan to use in the first stage of our Eris orbital rocket.” 'Eris' is the company's three-stage hybrid rocket dedicated to launching small satellites (up to 400 kg) to Low Earth Orbit by 2020.

“It will also be a test of our mobile launch platform, which we've designed to enable rapid and low-cost launches from remote locations,” he added. "Interestingly, this capability for responsive launch is one that other countries like the US, Europe and UK are trying very hard to develop right now." 

Being new, being nimble

This latest test-fire comes just two weeks after the Australian government officially launched the Australian Space Agency and released details of a nine-month space industry review. 

The report included recommendations to support 'next generation’ rocket propulsion systems, and make necessary changes to the Space Activities Act to enable commercial small satellite launches from Australia. 

"With Gilmour Space's technology and low-cost launch capabilities, small satellite launches could easily be a 'low-hanging fruit' for Australia. Our significant progress puts us as one of the front-runners in today's global small launch market, and we look forward to working with commercial, civil and defence partners to build a stronger and more vibrant domestic space industry in Australia and Singapore."

To the stars.




ABOUT GILMOUR SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

Gilmour Space Technologies is an Australia and Singapore-based rocket company that is developing low-cost launch vehicles for the small satellite/payload market.

Key milestones since beginning its rocket program in 2015:
  • June 2016: Gilmour Space first made headlines when it successfully flew the countries'first privately developed hybrid rocket to an altitude of 5 Km using proprietary 3D printed fuel (reportedly a world-first demonstration).
  • June 2017: It raised AUD 5 million (USD 3.7 million) in Series-A funding from venture capital firms Blackbird Ventures and 500 Startups, among others. Gilmour Space has also been awarded various R&D grants in Singapore and Australia.
  • August 2017: Successfully ground tested a high-impulse Cubesat Propulsion System, which could potentially power a 1U cubesat to the orbit of the Moon or Mars.
  • January 2018: Announced results of its first full-scale orbital engine test in December, which generated 45 kN in a low-pressure test fire.
  • March 2018: 70 kN of thrust (15,700 lbs) generated in what could be the world's largest successful test fire of a single-port hybrid rocket engine.

Considered one of the leading space startups in Australia and Singapore, Gilmour Space is scaling up to launch their first rockets to suborbital space in 2018, and to LEO in 2020.

MEDIA CONTACTS

Michelle Gilmour
Director, Marketing & Communications, Gilmour Space Technologies
Singapore Tel: (+65) 9106 6714
Australia Tel: (+61) 0408 973 296 – James Gilmour (Director & Co-Founder)

General enquiries: info@gspacetech.com
Twitter: @GilmourSpace

Russian intelligence nurtured Snowden then Trump

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Thought for the day.

Putin, an ex intelligence officer, sets the overall strategy for Russian foreign policy including Russian intelligence. Russian intelligence operates on the established international political zero-sum game principle, ie: “The more the Western alliance is destabilized the better Russia is doing.”

Hence Russia was highly enthusiastic about harbouring Edward Snowden, who carried information that caused distrust between the US government and US public and tension between the US and many of its allies.

And conspiracy theorists might now be correct in concluding Russian help for Trump’s campaign put a man in the Presidency guaranteed generate ongoing tension in US society and within the Western alliance.

Pete

Australia not attending US/India/Japan Naval Exercise MALABAR 2018

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COMMENT

Australia has chosen not to participate in Exercise MALABAR 2018. This is very likely due to Australia’s desire not to offend its largest trading partner and regional strategic threat, China. Way back in 2007 I wrote a MALABAR 2007 article for Newsweekly. In 2007 Australia did participate.

China is concerned MALABAR is just one manifestation of an informal "Quadrilateral" US/Japan/India/Australia alliance (or security dialogue) designed to contain Chinese military power in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans. China usually succeeds in dissuading Australia, the weakest member, from being fully active in the Quadrilateral.

2018 ARTICLE

Dinakar Perifor The Hindu, June 5, 2018, reports from New Delhi 

"War games to hone anti-submarine skills

Malabar exercise from June 7 to 16. - The Navies of India, Japan and the U.S. will enhance their anti-submarine warfare skills in this year’s Malabar naval war games to be held off the coast of Guam [in the Western Pacific Ocean] from June 7 to 16.

For the first time in a Malabar exercise, all three Navies are deploying their maritime reconnaissance (MR) aircraft to sharpen those skills.

“Each side has aircraft which can lay sono buoys and we will also monitor each other’s sono buoys. We will cross-attach people from all three countries,” the Deputy Chief of the Naval Staff, Vice-Admiral G. Ashok Kumar, said.

While the Indian Navy is deploying a P-8I long-range MR aircraft, the U.S. is deploying two P-8A aircraft and Japan is sending a Kawasaki P-1 MR aircraft. In addition, Japan and the U.S. have anti-submarine warfare helicopters on board their helicopter carrier JS Ise and aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, respectively.

[So ships include:
-  India’s frigate INS Sahyadri, fleet tanker INS Shakti and large corvette INS Kamorta all from
   India's Fleet Base East at Vishakhapatnam
-  USS Ronald Reagan, Aegis class cruisers USS Antietam and Chancellorsville, some destroyers and
   Los Angeles class submarine USS Pasadena (SSN-752), and
-  Japan's Hyuga class helicopter destroyer JS Ise, Takanami class destroyer JS Suzunami, and
   Akizuki class destroyer JS Fuyuzuki. For the very first time Japan is deploying an (unnamed) Soryu
   class submarine.]

...[Exercise MALABAR] began in 1992 as a bilateral naval exercise between India and the US and has over the years increased in scope and complexity with particular focus on ASW in view of increasing Chinese submarine movement in the Indian Ocean under the garb of anti-piracy patrols."

Pete

2015 News: Damen & Saab Long Been Talking Netherlands Submarine Replacement

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COMMENT

The June 1, 2018 Damen-Saab Netherlands submarine replacement design details via Dutch site De Telegraaf (then via other Dutch sites and English language sites) seems to be old news, little changed from 2015. It appears to be Damen-Saab advertising for just one of the Netherlands Walrus replacement submarine possibilities.

The Netherlands government and commercial entities have had ongoing talks with competing submarine builders over the last few years on possibilites for the Walrus replacement. These include:

-  TKMS (perhaps offering an enlarged Type 209, 212 or 214)
-  Naval Group (enlarged Scorpene or small Shortfin) and
-  Navantia, as the S-80 Plus (also at) will already displace 3,300 tonnes it may not need a size
   adjustment for the Netherlands).

The Netherlands has been actually mid-life overhauling/upgrading its current four Walrus class submarines to continue operating through the mid to late 2020s. So replacement submarines, from any of the four competitors, might only be launched from 2029 onwards.

Submarines Matters has recorded Netherlands-Swedish discussions since 2015. See

"Sweden and the Netherlands Replacement Submarine Needs, February 19, 2015"
"Saab-Damen Agreement

Since mid-late January 2015 there have been several reports that Saab and Dutch shipbuilder Damen Shipyards Group have signed an exclusive teaming agreement. This is to:

- explore future opportunities in the international submarine market including bidding jointly on submarine procurement programmes, and

- explore development of a potential Walrus-class submarine replacement for the Netherlands. 

...Possible Swedish Role

While Sweden is building its own two A26s Sweden might build the two to four Walrus replacements or at least supply the components for assembly in the Netherlands. 

Sweden's 3 Gotland Class submarines  (launched 1995-96) need replacing by 2025 and 2 Sodermanland class (relaunched 2003) for replacement by 2035(?).

Some extra issues/questions are:

...4. Would there be some technical, industrial and political overlap in the Walrus-class submarine replacement and development and construction of Sweden's future submarine A26?

5. Would the Netherlands find only 2 Walrus replacement submarines an effective number, given the "rule" of three and usefulness to the US alliance experience with the 4 Walruses. 

6. Could the Netherlands continue to justify unusually large SSKs or scale down to the usual European country own use maximum of around 1,900 tons surfaced?"

and in 2017 

Dutch Submarine Talks With TKMS & Kockums, not with DCNS, March 2, 2017
"...The Dutch Government continues informal talks with Germany and Sweden on Walrus submarine replacement issues. Surprisingly there was not the previous firm resolve from Dutch naval high command that replacement subs be built in the Netherlands..."

SAAB "MULTIMISSION PORTAL" - HORIZONTAL TUBE

It is also old news that Saab is developing a diver swim out/UUV launch "Multimission Portal" horizontal tube in the torpedo tube room.

See Saab Website "Story" of 21 April 2015:

"[Multimission Portal] Saab's A26 design includes a new innovative 6m x 1.5m Multimission Portal flexible payload capability with a lock system in addition to its conventional torpedo tubes. The lock system makes it easy for commandos to enter and exit the boat, and is large enough to allow the launch and retrieval of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles."

Note the diver swimout Multimission Portal tube at the bow of  the above Saab A26 design. This Saab design artwork was in a Saab "Story" dated 21 April 2015. So the June 2018 Saab-Damen news announcements contain little new.
---

Like the glacial paced Australian Future Submarine program the Netherlands Walrus Submarine replacement may well take a decade till launch.

Pete

Why Submarine Matters quiet since June 11, 2018 - Dad’s Death

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Dad in the 1970s.
1.  Below is Dad's Obituary, by Major General (retired) Peter Phillips  AO  MC, 
        in the Sydney Morning Herald (online) and

        (a very similar version) in full page hardcopy in the Canberra Times on July 14, 
         2018, page 24.

This Obituary is an abridged version of the Eulogy delivered by Peter Phillips at Dad’s Funeral, at Duntroon Chapel, Canberra, on July 12, 2018.

JOHN COATESDecember 28, 1932 – June 11, 2018

Distinguished soldier and scholar

The former army chief went on to become an acclaimed military historian.

Lieutenant-General John Coates, a former chief of the Australian Army, died on the Queen's birthday weekend. Perhaps that was fitting: he entered the Royal Military College, Duntroon, in 1952, just as the Queen ascended to the throne, and served loyally in her army for 40 years. By any reckoning, his service was remarkable. Aside from reaching the army's top position as chief of the general staff, he went on to be an outstanding military historian before his death at age 85.
In his own words, Coates described his childhood as "inauspicious". He had little family life and boarded at Ipswich Grammar for nine years. He spent the summer holiday, before entering the school, playing with other boys in Albert Park in Brisbane. He befriended a young American boy, Arthur MacArthur, who lived in the nearby Lennon's Hotel. Together, they played war games in 1942: Coates, who would one day lead Australia's army, and MacArthur, the son of the supreme allied commander in the Pacific.
At Ipswich Grammar, Coates was senior prefect and excelled at sport. He was a member of the first XI, the GPS athletics team and the school tennis team, which included Roy Emerson. He was also a cadet lieutenant, which fostered his interest in a military career. The headmaster, Richard Morrison, said Coates was a loyal and distinguished scholar.

From Duntroon, Coates was commissioned into the Royal Australian Armoured Corps in 1955 and served with the 1st Armoured Regiment in Puckapunyal. He learnt his trade as a troop leader on Centurion tanks.
In 1956, he and others were detached to help run the Melbourne Olympics. At the Games, Coates scored a plum job commanding the ceremonial guard at the Games village. Being a tall, good-looking, eligible bachelor, he attracted much attention from female athletes, especially – but not wholly – from the Australian team. Pixmagazine christened him "Dreamboat". Flattering as this might seem, Coates was less than pleased when this nickname spread throughout the regiment and the army! 

A year later, he married Diana Begg in Adelaide. She was a noted athlete herself who played tennis at state level, and as a talented artist and designer before she took up nursing at the Adelaide Children's Hospital. They moved to Perth in 1958 where Coates was adjutant of the 10th Light Horse Regiment. It was the start of his close association with the Army Reserve, which he championed later in his service. 

He then returned to Puckapunyal to round out his experience in a tank squadron.

Coates was posted to Duntroon in 1963 and lectured in military history. He was offered a scholarship at the Australian National University, which he was unable to take up, but began a masters thesis on the Malayan Emergency, which he finished after a sabbatical in 1974.
From Duntroon, Coates sailed with family to join the Royal Scots Greys (now Royal Scots Dragoon Guards) on exchange as a squadron commander in the British Army on the Rhine. He adjusted quickly to working with one of Britain's aristocratic regiments and won the trust of his British cavalry subordinates. His commanding officer was Lieutenant-Colonel John Stanier, later a field marshal and Britain's chief of the Imperial General Staff. Stanier highly commended his Australian squadron commander and remained a friend.
On returning to Australia, Coates attended the army's Australian Staff College at Fort Queenscliff before taking command of a squadron of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment, earmarked for service in Vietnam. Beginning in April 1970, he was to spend 14 months in Vietnam. First, he was an armoured personnel squadron commander taking part in "clear, hold and build missions". He helped developed the technique of ambushing armoured personnel carriers. He was proud of his crews, one of whom, Sergeant Ed Levy, he successfully recommended for the distinguished conduct medal.
Coates' own bravery was never in question. On May 27, 1970, in action as officer commanding B Squadron, 3rd Cavalry Regiment, he commanded a relief force sent to stabilise the situation near Xuyen Moc, Phuoc Tuy Province, where the enemy had over-run a Vietnamese post. He was supporting infantry from the 7th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment, under the command of Lieutenant-Colonel Ron Grey. Grey, who was later to be a major-general commanding the army's land forces and a federal police commissioner, remarked that "Coates's action in personally taking the lead armoured personnel carrier into the village at full throttle was inspirational and an extraordinary feat of personal valour". He was made a member of the Order of the British Empire and awarded the Republic of Vietnam cross of gallantry with gold star.
Coates was also commended for his later work as operations officer or "brigade major" on Headquarters 1st Australian Task Force. He disliked the "body count" used by American forces as a measure of success and discouraged its use by Australian units. From Vietnam, he returned to Duntroon to be commanding officer of the Corps of Staff Cadets. He was much involved in the changes necessary following the 1970 Fox report on the "bastardisation" of Duntroon cadets. A decade later, he returned to Duntroon as commandant and found that some "hazing" still continued, which he systematically set about removing.
In [1975 and 1976], Coates was attached to the United States armoured training centre at Fort Hood, where he enjoyed working with the innovative commander, General Bill De Puy, and George S. Patton IV, son of another famous US general. 
Coates was especially interested in the use of assessment exercises for units, which he promoted in his next post as a colonel in the army's land forces headquarters. During that time in Sydney, he was involved in dealing with the 1978 Hilton Hotel bombing episode and in other contingency planning.
In 1981, he attended the Royal College of Defence Studies in Britain before returning to Canberra. Then, in 1984, Coates was appointed defence attache in Washington, where he watched over Australia's interests alongside ambassador Rawdon Dalrymple and in dealings with US defence secretary Casper Weinberger.
In 1987, he was appointed to head defence policy in the Australian Defence Force headquarters before taking command of the army as chief of the general staff. He was much involved in affairs in the ASEAN region and, like his predecessors, worked to strengthen links with their armies. 
Coates was made a companion of the Order of Australia before he retired in 1992.
Coates then began an association with the Australian Defence Force Academy's history department. Professor Peter Dennis said Coates "was both a productive scholar and an engaging colleague". At Dennis' suggestion, Coates published his master's thesis on the early part of the Malayan Emergency to positive reviews.
Coates then wrote some of the major campaign entries in The Oxford Companion to Australian Military History. His next book, Bravery above Blunder, was a detailed study of the performance of the 9th Division on the Huon Peninsula in 1943-44. These works combined rigorous and extensive research with the keen eye of an experienced soldier, and were extremely well received.

Coates' most ambitious project, An Atlas of Australia's Wars, was first published in 2001 as part of The Australian centenary history of defence that he and Dennis produced. Atlas was an enormous undertaking, requiring endless consultations with cartographer Keith Mitchell, and researching and writing the essays that accompanied each map. The series received outstanding reviews but there is no doubt that Coates' Atlas was the crowning glory. 

The University of NSW awarded Coates an honorary doctorate in 2011, in recognition of his services to scholarship, particularly military history.

Dennis said Coates was a wonderful colleague, ready to engage in argument but always open to correction or disagreement. His Atlas will be a boon to young military professionals for years to come. Dennis went on to say that "as I look back on Australian military history, I cannot think of any other senior officer who came close to John's achievements as a historian. John truly exemplified the idea of a 'soldier/scholar'".

Coates is survived by Diana, their children Tina, Peter and Michael, and four grandchildren."
----------------------------------------------------------
2.  Below is a poem written and delivered by Peter Coates, as part of the Family Eulogy, at Dad’s Funeral at Duntroon Chapel, Canberra, on July 12, 2018.
"After talking to Dad for many years I’ve written a short poem that imagines:

WHAT DAD MAY SAY TODAY

When tomorrow starts without me
Just like yesterday
On this cold Winter afternoon
I have some things to say.

In 1970
I expected Vietnam would kill me
My end coming by a mine or RPG
Blowing up my APC.

But I lived 48 more years
Till 85 years old
Two diseases promised life till 2020
Then my heart gave out early.

I know I wasn’t perfect
Many things I regret
I had my faults
But please forgive me yet.

Life needs more forgiving
That’s the way we learn
It bonds us all together
For the better life we yearn

If I could relive yesterday
Even for a while
I’d crack a joke
And make you laugh
And even make you smile.

So when tomorrow starts without me
Don’t think we’re far apart
For every time you think of me
I’m right here in your heart.


Rest in peace Dad.

Taiwan's New Submarine Project Wildly Underfunded and Optimistic

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It is interesting that countries-companies have been variously reported as submitting submarine designs for Taiwan’s (once again) US endorsed submarine building project. These may be:


-  1 or 2 Indian firms. Though India has never built a conventional submarine other than assembling
   foreign designed submarines. Even the strikingly Russian Delta SSBN-like INS Arihant owes much
   to Russian design assistance especially due to the need to integrate a basically Russian designed
   reactor into it.

-  1 or 2 Japanese firms (MHI and KHI). Though Japan has not built an export submarine since the 
   Matchanu class, for Thailand, in the 1930s. Japan also scrupulously protects its submarine design
   secrets. Notoriously PRC intelligence penetrated Taiwan may not be a secure customer. Even US
   companies are not secure against Chinese intelligence.

-  2 US firms. Though the US has not built conventional submarines since the Barbel class of the
   1950s, and

-  2 unnamed European companies (perhaps from Sweden, France, Germany, Spain or the
   Netherlands?)

As The Diplomat’s(paysite’s) reminded on July 12, 2018 Taiwan allocated a paltry US$65.66 million to complete design work on its future submarines. Then Taiwan is over-optimistic in compressing milestonesto build a fleet of eight domestically designed SSKs, each displacing around 1,500 tons, with the first boat entering sea-trials by 2024 followed by its first operational deployment in 2026."

PETE COMMENTS

I argued in April 2018 "BACKGROUND-COMMENTS" that Taiwan is likely relying on updating existing teardrop designs (from Netherlands, Japanese or US companies) which all draw on the US’s sixty year old Barbel design. See Wiki

"The Zwaardvis-class submarine of the Netherlandsand [Taiwan's] Hai Lung-class...(built and sold by the Netherlands) were developments of the Barbel class design. The Japanese Uzushio class and its successors were also influenced by the Barbel class."

Taiwan would need fundamental updates to be competitive against China. Major upgrades needed include up to date quiet diesels, new electric motors and broader electrical fitout, new snorkel, new quieting technologies all over the sub, new sonars, photonic masts, computers and other electronics, anechoic tiles, new pressure hull steel and the vast number of other new submarine innovations since the 1950s. The US$65.66 million Taiwan is talking about wouldn’t even cover new sonar integration.

Perhaps Taiwan intends to rely financially and time-wise on a sympathetic US interpretation of America's Taiwan Relations Act(effective 1979). This ambiguously states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities". Time and Trump's changeable nature will tell.

Pete

Months or Years? Massive US-Indian Counter-Terrorism Operation Revealed

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In an operation smaller than the much larger US operation that monitored Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda guests in Abbottabad, Pakistan, from 2005 to 2011 (then international exploitation of the intelligence gained):

INTELNEWSJULY 17, 2018reports:

“A joint Indian-American counterintelligence operation, described as “unprecedented in its scale and scope”, reportedly foiled a major suicide attack by the Islamic State in New Delhi and helped achieve “a string of victories” against the group in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Citing “top diplomatic and intelligence sources”, the New Delhi-based daily The Indian Express said that the “audacious” operation took place a year ago, but details about it were only made available to its reporters in recent days...”

PETE COMMENT

Looking back again to Abbottabad - so many massive counter-terrorism operations continue for years below the surface. As ever, “discoveries” just a few months old that boost a US President’s (in 2011 Obama's) counter-terrorism credentials, actually concern operations of great value that lasted several years.

Spain's new S-80 Plus submarine 'too big for its dock'

China & Russia Fear Islamic Terrorism as much as West Does

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INTELNEWS on July 11, 2018 reports:

"Intelligence directors from Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan met on Tuesday to discuss regional cooperation with particular reference to combating the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Information about the high-level meeting was revealed yesterday by Sergei Ivanov, media spokesman for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). Ivanov told Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency that the meeting was held in Pakistan and included the participation of SVR director Sergei Naryshkin. TASS reported that the meeting was held under the auspices of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate and was attended by “senior intelligence officials” from Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China..."

Comment

Pakistani agencies (including ISI) had many organisational and personal links with al Qaeda and, of course, the Taliban from the 1980s to the 2000s, but Pakistani agency links with Islamic State have not yet matured. This is partly because Islamic State is actually (maybe unfortunately) Islamic and frequently less venal ie. less bribe-able.

The makeup of the meeting reinforces strategic alliance realities that Pakistan is dependent on China for much missile, nuclear weapons' developments and now submarine building. Meanwhile Iran is dependent on Russia in many respects, including deterring any Boltonesque US-Israeli bombing of Iran.

Overall the meeting recognises China and Russia fear Islamic terrorist attacks as much as Western countries (eg. US, UK, France) as well as India. 

Trump’s Constant Indiscreet Tweets Aid Hostile Intelligence Agencies

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INTELNEWS, July 3, 2018, reports:

"...according to former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Nada Bakos, foreign intelligence agencies are among those paying close attention to the president’s tweets...

...All intelligence agencies, explains Bakos, build psychological profiles of foreign leaders. These profiles typically rely on information collected through intelligence operations that are “methodical, painstaking and often covert”. The final product can be crucial in enabling countries to devise strategies that counter their adversaries, says Bakos. But with Trump, covert intelligence-collection operations are not needed in order to see what is on his mind, since “the president’s unfiltered thoughts are available night and day”, she claims. 

The former CIA analyst points out that President Trump’s tweets are posted “without much obvious mediation” by his aides and advisors, something that can be seen by the frequency with which he deletes and reposts tweets due to spelling and grammatical errors. These unfiltered thoughts on Twitter offer a “real-time glimpse of a major world leader’s preoccupations, personality quirks and habits of mind”, says Bakos.

...[Bakos] clearly thinks that the US leader’s use of social media is too impulsive and potentially dangerous from a national-security perspective...."

Comment 

If only the leaders of Russia and China were as indiscreet as the random Trump!
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