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French SSN Perle Fire Causes & Will Impact Australia's Attack-class Program

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PETE COMMENT

Looking at French sources (below) and the color of the smoke on a youtube/video (below) the June 12, 2020 fire on the French SSN submarine Perleappeared to be initially burning: of composite material on thebow; of plastic wiring (see La Provence report below), and perhaps of outer and inner plastic-rubber anechoic tiling. The cause may be sparks from an angle grinder or flame from welding cutting into the mainly single hulled bow, or a short circuit. The fire may then have spread to plastic fittings throughout the Rubis-class Perle including the control centre and composites used in the “fin”/ “sail” and in the hull sonars. This explains dark coloured smoke captured in the youtube below.

The Perle (Pearl in English) almost 30 years old (since its launch in September 1990) is probably too old to be worth repairing. French Armed Foreces and Naval Group investigations are assessing the cause(s) and damage. It will then fall to a political/public relations decision in a few days, more like weeks or months to conclude Perle is probably a “write-off”.

Whether Perle can be repaired or not there is increased pressure to commission in 2021 the first of France's Suffren-class "Barracuda" SSNs. One of France’s Rubis-class SSNs is in dry dock meaning:

-  1 is available to scout ahead of the France’s aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulletaskforce when that
    carrier
returns to sea in September 2020 (probably to the carriers usual station in the eastern
    Mediterranean for air operations over Syria).


and

-  the remaining 2 Rubises are needed for Triomphant-class SSBN protection as each SSBN enters
   and leaves France’s Île Longue SSBN Base on France’s Atlantic coast.

This is noting first of class "Rubis" itself is 41 years old since its launch in 1979 - old enough for decommissioning now. 

As greater Naval Group company resources are now required to commission France’s Suffren-class Barracuda’s this means less than expected Naval Group resources for Australia’s Shortfin-Barracuda Attack-class conventional submarines. Further delay in Australia Attack-class program will definitely occur.




FROM “S”

Naval News includes a Youtube Video (above) indicating at:

(0:11/2:37) black smoke suggesting rubber or plastic is burning

(0:15/2:37) A huge amount of steam was generated which was comparable to blaze of USS Miami SSN (shown at 2:04/2:37) when a large amount of heat was generated.

(0:44/2:37). A flexible welding duct is evident. A fire from improperly done welding may be possible.

Flame retardant foam presumably was used for the electric cables, but also for other materials (eg: plastic stretcher beds, plastic maintenance sheets, chairs, curtains, rubber-mountings/dampeners for equipment, rubber anechoic coating for outside of hull, etc.). All may be flammable. Arson is also possible.

FRENCH LANGUAGE SOURCES

La Croix (“The Cross”) Catholic newspaper (online) when translated into English reports, June 16, 2020https://www.la-croix.com/France/Incendie-sous-marin-Perle-limpact-sera-majeur-operations-marine-2020-06-16-1201100033

"The submarine looks like these wrecks that we see underwater,"remarked an officer of the French Navy, who is not very optimistic about the ship's ability to return to sea.” 
The submarine, which had no nuclear fuel and no weapons on board, was badly damaged inside. But has its thick hull been damaged? Will the Perle that came into service in 1993, be out of order? The Ministry of the Armed Forces has dug up the contracts to look at [maintenance and organisational] responsibilities of each entity and the hour is with the assessors. 
Judicial and technical investigations have been launched and the General Inspectorate of the Armed Forces has seized evidence. “We are awaiting expertise data on materials. The Minister [of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly] wants to have an idea of ​​the options to submit to the President of the Republic [Emmanuel Macronbefore the end of July, " said his cabinet, Monday, June 15.
The prime contractor, Naval Group, has conducted its own investigations. "For the moment, the origin of this fire is not known and we are examining all the hypotheses ," said an official of the industrial group. The most important thing is to understand and measure the extent of the damage to know if it is possible to repair or not. "
Escort of French SSBNs which provide nuclear deterrence
Without waiting for the results of the expert reports, the Ministry of the Armed Forces knows that the incident will have consequences for certain military missions. “The fire will have no impact on operations in 2020 because the submarine activity program had been done without the Perle , its technical shutdown being scheduled for one year. On the other hand, the fire will have a major impact in 2021, and we are working to modify the activity of the other [new Suffren-class] SSNs”, explains Captain Eric Lavault, spokesperson for the French Navy.
Nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) play an important role in several types of missions, notably intelligence. They support [France’s 4 Triomphant-class SSBNs] which ensure nuclear deterrence at sea and escort [France’s nuclear propelled] aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle, which will return to sea in September [2020]. They can also project themselves into different theatres of operations. This is the case in the Mediterranean, near the coasts of Syria and Libya, or in the Indian Ocean [eg. the Arabian Sea monitoring Iran].
Three operational SSNs and one currently in maintenance
France officially has six Rubis-classSSNs since 1983 - five in reality after the decommissioning of Saphir in July 2019. Three are therefore operational, the Rubis , the Casabianca and the Emerald , while a last one, the Amethyst being in dry dock maintenance.
---------------------------
La Provence, earlier, on June 14, 2020 reported https://www.laprovence.com/article/faits-divers-justice/6017078/toulon-branle-bas-de-combat-pour-sauver-la-perle.html

 the Perle, which had undergone an interruption for [long term] maintenance and repair for 18 months since November [2019?], had another ten years of life before it before it was to be decommissioned, like the Sapphire , and the three other Rubis-class SSNs, all due to be replaced by new generation [Suffren-class Barracuda] SSNs.”
“When the fire occurred, the Perle was practically naked [cut open], only the electrical cables remained, which according to [Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly] could have played a role in the spread of the fire.

Pete and "S"

Donald Trump DOES have incredibly high IQ.

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The most prominent international news service of an American major ally, Germany, has published an article proving Trump’s high IQ can be compared to Johann Wolfgang von Goethe's. *

Deutsche Welle (DW) reports, June 18, 2020 https://www.dw.com/en/john-bolton-book-trump-sought-reelection-help-from-china/a-53852500

"John Bolton book: Trump sought reelection help from China"

"Election help from China, favors for dictators and thinking it would be "cool" to invade Venezuela: Former US national security adviser John Bolton has made explosive claims about his time working in the White House.

A new book by former US national security advisor John Bolton shows US President Donald Trump to be "stunningly uninformed on how to run the White House."

The New York Times
The Washington Post (WashPost) and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published excerpts from The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir on Wednesday.

Here's a look at some of the major claims:

Election help from China

Trump's decisions were guided by his drive to win reelection, asserts Bolton. This includes a June 2019 conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Japan.

"With only interpreters present," said Bolton, Trump switched subject, "pleading with Xi to ensure he'd win" the next US presidential election scheduled for November 3.

"He stressed the importance of [US] farmers, and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome," asserted Bolton.

Uighur internment camps 'right thing to do'

"Xi explained to Trump why he was basically building concentration camps in Xinjiang," China's western predominantly Muslim Uighur province, said Bolton in the excerpt cited by the WSJ.

"According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which he thought was exactly the right thing to do," Bolton said, alluding to global alarm over the internment of 1 million people despite China's denials.

Trump himself signed US legislation Wednesday calling for sanctions over the repression of China's Uighur Muslims, just as Bolton's book excerpts emerged.

Intelligence briefings rare

Inside the White House, said Bolton, Trump typically had only two intelligence briefings a week "and in most of those, he spoke at greater length than the briefers, often on matters completely unrelated to the subjects at hand."

Trump, poorly served by staff (asserted Bolton) "saw conspiracies behind rocks, and remained stunningly uninformed on how the White House functioned, let alone the huge federal government."

Trump, according to Bolton, had demonstrated "fundamentally unacceptable behavior that eroded the very legitimacy of the presidency."

Error-prone statements

Bolton reported that Trump repeatedly confused the current and former presidents of Afghanistan — despite 18 years of US military intervention.

Former White House chief of staff John Kelly had been asked by Trump if Finland — an EU member nation — was part of Russia.

According to WashPost, at a meeting with Britain's former Prime Minister Theresa May, Trump even interjected to ask if "London was a nuclear power."

On Trump's past overtures to reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Bolton claimed that the US president cared little about denuclearization and only saw his summits with Kim as "an exercise in publicity."

Saudi defense to distract from Ivanka

A 2018 text by Trump in defense of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman — amid outcry over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi — was reportedly to distract media focus from his daughter Ivanka Trump.

[Ivanka Trump] had used her personal email for government business, WashPost quoted Bolton as saying, although Trump had lambasted his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton for doing the same during the 2016 US presidential election.

How did Trump react?

The Trump administration is trying to block publication of the book, scheduled for release by Simon & Schuster next Tuesday. The Department of Justice sought an emergency injunction late Wednesday.

But the publisher said the move was "a frivolous, politically motivated exercise in futility."”

PETE COMMENT

*Johann Wolfgang von Goethe is considered, by many, to be a genius, who was expert in many
   areas of knowledge.

Wie Donald Trump in seinem eigenen mikroskopischen Gehirn!

Trump's Tulsa Tantrum - The People Failed Me.

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How can Trump "Make America Great Again" if the volk don't turn up? 

Trump's father, Frederick Christ Trumphis real name :), once told his fuming son that Hitler, in the Berlin Bunker Blamed the German people for failing Hitler's vision - see https://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/defeat/enter-bunker.htm :

"The German people were about to learn the harshest lesson of all. The Führer's contempt for human life was not exclusive to the Slavic peoples or the Jews, but would soon be visited upon the Germans themselves, because of their inability to achieve the things he had set out for them." 

Throughout his life, Adolf Hitler had never been able to admit a single mistake or accept responsibility for any failure. And as the thousand-year Reich he founded teetered on the brink of collapse in early 1945, he blamed it on the weakness of the German people and a military organization riddled with timid, disloyal and incompetent officers." [remind anyone of Trump?] 

"If only they had really listened to him and let themselves be inspired. If only they had possessed the same will and determination as him – certainly everything would have turned out differently...."

And now we have Trump's Tulsa Tantrum...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-furious-underwhelming-crowd-tulsa-rally-n1231674

Extra Issues: Singapore's 218SG (Invincible-class) Submarines

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The 218SGs largest cutaway diagram (above – click here for a greatly enlarged image) (Cutaway courtesy https://www.naval.com.br/blog/2019/02/18/invincible-primeiro-submarino-type-218sg-de-singapura-e-lancado-na-alemanha/ )
---

Since SubMatts’ most recent articleon Singapore’s Type 218SG Invincible-class submarine Anonymous and retortPouch have provided very interesting extra comments. These are summarised below:

Section 1.

Looking at Cutaway above provided by retortPouch, Anonymous has made the following comments on Singapore’s Type 218SG Invincible-class submarine: (hereinafter called just 218). The 218 will not be purely single hulled or double hulled but instead “mixed hulled”. This is with an inner pressure hull steel shell estimated at HY100 throughout but also outer hull sections surrounded by FRP(Fibre Reinforced Plastic). Between the hulls are fuel and seawater buoyancy tanks and such fittings as sonars, other sensors and ejectors as well as tanks which can more safely store flammable/explosive Hydrogen packaged (more safely) in Metal Hydride (MH) form.

If HY100 pressure hull steel is used (as in Type 214s) this is likely magnetic and allows the submarine to dive to ocean depths with water pressure equivalent to 100,000 pounds per square inch (psi) or 690MPa. This steel’s thermal conductivity is estimated to be 34 W/mK) making it a “conductor”.

It is possible that the 218 will use HY80 (560MPa) pressure hull steel (as used in Type 212As) which has the advantage of being non-magnetic, hence less detectable. However if the 218 (shaped like a 214 has HY80 steel (like a 212) then the 218's whole hull structure (supporting frameworks and all) will need to have been revised from scratch, rather than closely copying an existing structure.

Non-pressure “outer parts” of the 218 hull use FRP also called “composite” materials which have an estimated thermal conductivity of (0.5-0.1W/mK) making them semi thermal insulators.

The following is very complex. Heat from reactions in the 218's Proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCAIP is used for heating of liquid inside fuel cylinders. An FRP plate might act as a rupture vessel to prevent  leakage of hydrogen from MH cylinders. FRP plates are fixed by bolts (white spots) not because of non-magnetism, but because of thermal/heat insulation of fuel cylinders in the space between pressure hull and FRP plates. A MH cylinders are encased within a cylinder surrounded by liquid (maybe diesel fuel). Cool liquid is carried into a fuel cylinder at hydrogen loading and cools hydrogen absorbing metal inside the MH cylinders. Hot liquid is carried in a fuel cylinder at hydrogen generation and heats MH inside of a MH cylinder to generate hydrogen.

Section 2. On other issues - from retortPouch:


Correction: It turns out Singapore's 2 Archer-class submarines will be retired after 2024, as indicated by 2019 plans.

Furthermore:

a) as of 2019, the 218s will not be armed with land attack missiles, however

b) it is likely, by the phrasing of the author, that it will be able to operate UUVs. Other relevant items come in the last few paragraphs, like underwater submarine safety/codes of conduct.

218 going through sea trials, shared on Twitter by David Boey, original article here https://www.shz.de/regionales/kiel/neues-u-boot-invincible-auf-der-kieler-foerde-zu-sehen-id28288867.html; photos courtesy Rolf Dunkel.

Tpenghui/Faithkeeper confirms, via TKMS marketing that the 218 will have a new design of ultraquiet screw/propeller, and the large ring, as suspected, was to optimise flow, and make it cleaner for the screw. [see second photograph of the IMDEX Asia 2015 model]

Tpenghui/Faithkeeper confirms that the pressure hull will be steel, however the upper angled "tent", and the massive keel structures will be made of non-steel, non-magnetic materials to reduce the magnetic signature of the sub. [This can tie in with discussion of combination of pressure hull steel and FRG/composites in Section 1. above].

4) The 218s will come with vertical locks (possibly not vertical multi-purpose locks (VMPLs) but probably not the sail lock solution) to launch divers and UUVs.

This is an old model photo from the 2017 TKMS booth at IMDEX Asia, taken by Tim Fish/@sweeneygov, look at the cutouts on the top surface of the "tent". [Also see IMDEX Asia 2015 models].

Anonymous and retortPouch

Australian "Perisher" Course Officers on Dutch COVID-19 Infected Submarine?

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Australian submarine command officer candidates regularly attend the Submarine Command [“Perisher”] Course held on board the Dutch conventional submarine Dolphin. The course starts in February each year as it likely did this year (2020). If Australian candidates attended the course this year they may have been exposed to COVID-19. If so the Australian Department of Defence and Royal Australian Navy should be asked.

On March 30, 2020 the Dutch Ministry of Defencereported that 8 crew members of the Dutch submarine [in English Dolphin] had tested positive for COVID-19.

On April 21, 2020 The North Holland Daily Newspaper(online) reported(once translated into English): "The COVID-19 outbreak occurred during the Submarine Command [“Perisher”] Course held on board the Dolphin. The Royal Netherlands Navy provides international training for submarine commanders."

A US Submarine Officer wrotethat when he attended the Dutch “Perisher” Course in 2005: “I arrived in the Netherlands in early February and immediately got underway...onboard [the submarine Dolphin]...The 2005 Netherlands Perisher Course...included students from Australia, Israel, the Netherlands, Singapore and the U.S.” The US Officer added that “Since its inception, the [Dutch Navy] Perisher Course has trained foreign officers from...Brazil, Canada...[South] Korea [and] South Africa.”

PETE COMMENT

So Australian submarine officer students/candidates were on Dolphin in 2005. Were they on Dolphin this year?

Trump's Russia Links: US Intelligence Despair

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Here is part of an excellent analysis by Stephen Collinson, of CNN, on June 30, 2020, at https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/30/politics/donald-trump-russia-taliban-phone-calls/index.html regarding: 

"New revelations stir old questions about Trump and Russia"

Reports that a Russian military intelligence agency [the GRU]   put a bounty on the heads of US troops in Afghanistan launched the President's team into a new cycle of confusion, apparent half-truths and contradictions as a fresh storm raged over Trump's mysterious deference to Moscow and its strongman leader, President Vladimir Putin.
Conflicting messages from the President and his press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, only deepened the intrigue about what is really going on.
    None of what they are saying clears up an episode that comes as new reporting for CNN from veteran Washington reporter Carl Bernstein lifts the lid on Trump's desperate flattery of Putin, his ignorance of basic world events, the way he was manipulated by smarter world leaders and his "near-sadistic" -- according to one source -- behavior toward female world leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
    Bernstein's story, and Trump's unfathomable relationship with Russia -- a nation with which he had past business relationships and which he denies interfered in the 2016 US election -- both boil down to the same foreboding question about Trump's presidency: Does he act in America's interests or his own?

    Such uncertainty is underpinned by Trump's foreign policy -- whether it involves feuding with NATO or calling on the G7 to readmit Russia -- which often seems to reward Moscow's interests. It's also offering an opening to Democrats, who warn that the commander in chief is either incompetent or unfit for office, only four months from a general election in which Trump is trailing Democrat Joe Biden in recent polling.


    There's one constant in each new twist of the drama over Russia that has overshadowed every day of Trump's term in the Oval Office.
    Each time there's a damaging story on the issue, he makes exactly the same move -- dumping on the US intelligence that lies behind it. It was a similar story when the President used a Helsinki summit with Putin to throw US intelligence agencies under the bus over their assessments that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election to help him win.
    ...House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wondered aloud in an interview with CNN why Trump was not briefed on the grave threats to US troops.
    "If he was not briefed [by US Intelligence], why would he not be briefed?" Pelosi told CNN's Jake Tapper.
    "Were they afraid to approach him on the subject of Russia?" Pelosi said. "Were they concerned if they did tell him that he would tell Putin? So there's a lot that remains out there."..."
    ---

    Fresh Arms News from Singapore's Defense Ministry

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    A big thanks to Shawn C for providing fresh news from Singapore’s Ministry of Defense:

    1. Overseas exercises will restart soon after the COVID-19 caused delays - see https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/covid-19-saf-suspends-major-overseas-exercises-including-exercise-wallaby

    2. First Invincible class [and see] submarine delivery delayed by COVID-19 to 2022. As Shawn C mentioned previously the two Archer class were extensively refurbished ten years ago and should be viable till later in the decade. The two active Challenger-class submarines [RSS Conqueror and RSS Chieftain] are now over 55 years old and been in commission in the RSN for just under twenty years.

    3. CH-47F"Chinook" and H225M heli programs also delayed, deliveries to begin in 2021.

    4. Singapore's F-35B program is on track. Four F-35Bs with eight options. Announced cost inclusive of training and sustainment, training in US. Considering that the RSAF and Italian Air Force both now use the M-346 jet trainer for lead-in fighter training (LIFT) and both operate the F-35B, there could be a future shift to Italian F-35B flight training.

    5. The Multi-Role Combat Vessel program on track to replace Victory-class corvettes by 2030. Now this is a mystery program as there’s no contract award announcement and steel needs to be cut very soon, The Victory-class is over 30 years old. Speculation from IMDEX2019 was the class could be mid-size frigates (my best guess are Belh@rra class [frigate derivates of around 4,500 tons]).

    6. Four former ‘patrol vessels’ to be reconfigured for new MARSEC (Maritime Security Command or MSTF?). Most likely retired Fearless-Class without 76mm and AShM, more less-than-lethal fit (MRAD, water cannons), boarding and surveillance. Two additional new vessels to be added in near future.

    7. Singapore constructs the majority of surface vessels locally at ST Marine’s Benoi yard, and they will be facing production pressures as the next long-term project after the Multi-Role Combat Vessel is the JMMS (Joint Multi Mission Support) class scheduled to replace the Endurance-class Landing Platform Dock in the early 2030s.

    New Chinese National Security Laws for Hong Kong Now in Force

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    Reuters, July 1, 2020 reports in part https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hongkong-security/china-passes-sweeping-hong-kong-security-law-heralding-new-authoritarian-era-idUSKBN2412UD with Pete's comments added in [...] brackets.

    "HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - Beijing on Tuesday unveiled new national security laws for Hong Kong that will punish crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces [as predicted by SubMatts on June 5, 2020with up to life in prison, heralding a more authoritarian era for China’s freest city.

    ... [the new laws] entered into force at 11 p.m. (1500 GMT) on June 30.

    ... In their most severe form, crimes will be punishable with life in prison. Punishments otherwise largely go up to 10 years.

    ... According to the law, a new national security agency [no doubt mainly staffed by China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) already present covertly in HK] will be set up for the first time in Hong Kong and will not be under the jurisdiction of the local government. Authorities can carry out surveillance and wire-tap people suspected of endangering national security, it said.
    Those asking foreign countries to sanction, blockade or take other hostile action against Hong Kong or China could be guilty of colluding with foreign forces.

    ...
    Authorities shall take necessary measures to strengthen the management and servicing of foreign countries’ and international organisations’ branches in Hong Kong, as well as foreign media and NGOs in the city, the law says." [SubMatts pointed to the US Consulate General in Hong Kong on June 8, 2020].
    SEE WHOLE REUTERSARTICLE

    Taiwan's Wishful Thinking US Will Defend If China Attacks

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    The South China Morning Post (published in Hong Kong), June 30, 2020 reports:

    "Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks"

    "Su Chi, former secretary general of [Taiwan's] National Security Council, says government should not delude itself over America’s ability or willingness to stop a PLA invasion.

    Su says proposed Taiwan Defence Act should not create false hopes because it raises the prospect that the US is no longer able to react effectively."

    MORE HERE

    Good Time For China To Invade Taiwan, BUT.

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    In response to Anonymous's interesting comments of July 1, 2020 that it is an unfavourable time for China to invade Taiwan, I say:

    Thanks Anonymous

    Taking your points in turn:

    i) true that China is unpopular with all those regional countries and with the US (but not with Russia). Being so unpopular China has nothing to lose, in terms of popularity, by invading Taiwan.

    ii) The whole world knows already that Coronavirus started in Wuhan, China. Disease has little to do with invasion strategy (including timing).

    iii) China's bad economic state is indeed a consideration. However if China launched a successful invasion it would eventually save $Billions by standing down its anti-Taiwan military forces AND gaining the industrial capacity of Taiwan (including seizing what you say is "the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)").

    iv) China's aging problem (cost to the Chinese economy) is only going to get worse over the years. Best to invade soon before the aging problem gets much worse.

    Unlikely Putin would go to war with China because of comparatively minor China-India border skirmish. China is more important to Russia economically than India is https://www.advantour.com/russia/economy/trade.htm#:~:text=Major%20trading%20partners%20of%20Russia,%2C%20timber%2C%20machinery%20and%20equipment.

    Russia has been exporting submarines and high tech aircraft to China for years. Russia has been exporting the S-400 missile system to China since 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#China

    Re: "Recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Himalayan border area might suggest arbitrary behaviour of PLA." The clash and previous border tension was/is an extended political and public event that the Party has studied closely and seems to be on top of. eg. see this of June 22, 2020:

    Gen. Zhao Zongqi, head of the Western Theater Command and among the few combat veterans still serving in the People's Liberation Army, approved the operation along the contested border region of northern India and southwestern China, a source familiar with the assessment says on the condition of anonymity. Zhao, who has overseen prior standoffs with India, has previously expressed concerns that China must not appear weak to avoid exploitation by the United States and its allies, including in New Delhi, the source says, and saw the faceoff last week as a way to "teach India a lesson."

    It must be remembered Chinese leader Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) which directs the PLA. Below that Generals and Admirals of the CMC head military formations down to divisional level. Below Division many Communist Party members in the officer corps report to the party.

    It may be a favourable time for invasion of Taiwan while Trump is making the US internationally unpopular and distrusted. If Trump loses the November 3, 2020 Election the "lame duck period" that ends on January 20, 2021(?) may be a propitious time for actions by China.

    BUT the superior strength of the US military in conventional and nuclear terms AND much larger US economy makes invasion risky for China.

    The most dangerous condition for Taiwan may be when China has a larger economy than the US permitting China to sustain a war longer than the US.

    Pete

    Singapore's Future Multi-Role Combat Vessel (MRCV) Issues

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    Following Pete’s article there were 2 major comments on July 2, 2020, regarding Singapore’s proposed Multi-Role Combat Vessel (MRCV). Singapore hopes the MRCV will be operational by 2027 - so the selection process must occur quickly.

    1. retortPouch commented:

    “Right now, our best bet is that the MRCV will be a derivative of the STMarine Vanguard 130 in diagram below:

    Concept diagram of STMarine Vanguard 130 derivative. (Diagram courtesy European Defence Review (EDR) Online May 23, 2019 https://www.edrmagazine.eu/imdex-19-st-engineering-unveils-latest-vanguard-combatant-variant)
    ---

    Damen also advertised its Crossover 139 vessel for the requirement at the International Maritime Defence Exhibition held in Singapore, May 14-16, 2019 abbreviated IMDEX Asia 2019, but I'm not sure if the tender has been issued for competition yet.

    Mothership concept. (Diagram courtesy Rafa Estrada, ST Engineering and UMS Skeldar via Channel News Asia  May 19, 2019). 
    ---

    The MRCV is not intended to be a classic frigate, but rather a distributed warfare "mothership", deploying [Unmanned Aerial Systems] UAS, UUVs, and [Unmanned Surface Vessels] USVs. The Belharra/FDI frigates do not appear to be structurally optimised to deploy the offboard warfare systems necessary.


    The 6 Formidable class frigates need to undergo a [Mid-Life Update] MLU soon. retortPouch personally hopes the Herakles[radar systems] will be replaced by the [SEA FIRE all-digital multi-function radar]

    There is also indication that the Harpoon 1B fit were always considered an interim solution: https://peacethoughstrength.blogspot.com/2008_09_01_archive.html:

    "During the Naval Platform Technology Seminar held in Singapore in 2004, Singapore’s Permanent Secretary (Defence) Peter Ho hinted that the Harpoon missile was considered an interim fit, stating that,” these third-generation platforms (Formidable class frigates) must eventually be upgraded and armed with a new generation of anti-ship missiles that can defeat the most advanced defences"."

    Strange as it sounds, the tiny corvette sized frigates were said to be designed with spare space and capacity for future upgrades. It is said to be a very cramped vessel to live in.


    3 minutes 35seconds into above Video https://youtu.be/H4wuQQbKy_8Hervé Boy, Naval Group’s Surface Ship Marketing Manager, describes Naval Group’s Belharra Frigate design. This was at IMDEX Asia 2019.
    ---

    2. Shawn C commented:

    “Just to add:

    I’m personally unsure as to what the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) will pick, though the close timeline is a big hint that it should be an existing ship design customised to the RSN’s requirements.

    We do know it will have extensive unmanned control and handling facilities, to operate at least two UAVs, two UUVs and two USVs (simultaneously?) and act as a data node for off-board sensors (probably controlling Heron MALE UAVs). Though Singapore’s increasing naval reach indicates a more expeditionary approach for Fleet units for [Sea Lines of Communication] SLOC patrols (Shawn C wonders why).

    Under the recent RSN organisational change [here?]181 squadron, operating the 500-ton Victory-class missile corvettes are under Fleet, not [Maritime Security] MARSEC (Independence-class LMVs for example), so their replacements will not be designed for just ‘local’ operations.

    Shawn C has three guesses [what design Singapore will choose for the Multi-Role Combat Vessel]:

    1. The modified Belh@rra class [aka Belharra frigate] locally built with close Naval Group cooperation, since they now have an R and D centre in Singapore

    2. The larger ST Vanguard derivative with [Naval Group formerly DCNS] inputs, because the Vanguard 130 variant looks crammed to the gills

    3. [Making a] Wild Guess and personal favourite, the British Type 26 frigate with SEA FIRE radar, and a 127mm [5-inch] main gun. [Pete comments its much heavier, up to 8,000 tons full load] .

    retortPouch and Shawn C

    Laika/Husky Article Appears Oblivious of Yasen Project.

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    This article https://news.yahoo.com/did-russia-us-sneak-peak-200000856.html mentions Russia's proposed Laika/Husky project which was meant to be smaller and cheaper than the Yasens and slowly replace the Yasens.

    This article https://news.yahoo.com/did-russia-us-sneak-peak-200000856.html also indicates Laika/Husky "will reportedly displace 11,340 metric tons"  and perhaps start building in "2023".

    https://news.yahoo.com/did-russia-us-sneak-peak-200000856.html seems oblivious to the fact that according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasen-class_submarine#Units 8 Yasens (of 8 to 14,000 ton size) are at various stages of launching, trialling and some building with commissioning of the last into the late 2020s if not later.

    According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laika-class_submarine#History it will be only in 2027-2030 that the first Laika/Husky will be "built". So full trialling/commissioning of this first Laika/Husky may extend into the mid-2030s.


    Is the US President Moral?

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    Facts, not muckraking, define the boy a minority of Americans voted for in 2016.

    Now its 2020.

    But American voters can recall Trump married Melania, January 22, 2005 after becoming engaged in 2004:

    a)  Dark and Stormy nights in 2006 paid off in 2016,

    and

    b)  Trump's Access Hollywood tape - recorded in 2005 (video below):





    Trump's fans deserve this international joke again.

    Fear of China, US Isolationism, Drive Up Australian Defence Budget

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    So what is Australian Prime Minister Morrison's very long public speech, delivered on July 1, 2020, all about?

    A. Basically the increasing fear of China, a China playing hardball:

    -   in Hong Kong, in China's near (East China and South China) seas and on the China-India border
    -   increased Chinese cyber hacking/sigint efforts
    -   increased Chinese pressure on nations to accept such Chinese power projection products as
         Huawei 5G, and
    -   more recently increased Chinese Wolf-warrior hard "diplomacy". No more Mr Nice Guy.
        No carrots, just stick.

    B.  Australia signalling the US that Australia is no longer confident that the Trump Administralion's
         alliance defence "policy" (or lack thereof) can be trusted to support Australia. But Australia is
         willing to foot more of the defence bill (2+% GDP) as an argument for greater (or restored) US
         support.

    The more formal description of Morrison's speech is the "2020 Defence Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan"
    ---------------------------------------------------------

    France24, July 1, 2020 describes the B. aspect of the speech well
     https://www.france24.com/en/20200701-chinese-threats-weaker-us-alliance-spur-australian-military-overhaul :

    “...beyond real concerns about Chinese hacking, territorial seizures, economic coercion and "grey-zone" operations just short of open warfare lay an unspoken [Australian] acknowledgement: America's defence umbrella -- which had long offered protection from these threats -- is looking very leaky.

    "Australia is losing faith in the United States," Van Jackson, a former Pentagon official and expert on Asian security policy told Agency France Press (AFP).

    Policy officials cannot publicly admit it, he said, "but that's clearly what this is all about".
    "It's not just that China's more aggressive in this region. It's China fears combined with US unreliability and strategic incompetence."

    For much of the last century, Australian security relied on the United States.

    After independence from Britain, Australia actively supported the US-led rules-based order and its forces fought in wars from Vietnam to Iraq. In return, it got the protection of the world's preeminent nuclear power.

    But even before Donald Trumpentered the Oval Office and threatened to set fire to decades-old security treaties, Washington had shown an increased reluctance to play security guard for countries rich enough to afford their own defence.

    There is no guarantee the United States can continue to be a global policeman, even if it wanted to, observers note."

    US Stars and Stripes, July 1, understandably avoided the Australian lack of faith in US support theme, but it set out the cost and some hardware details of Australia's increased 10 year wish list well https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/australia-to-boost-military-spending-amid-most-challenging-times-in-indo-pacific-region-1.635800 :

    "Australia will spend US$186 billion [equivalent to A$270 billion] to build a bigger and more aggressive military equipped with long-range and hypersonic missiles, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced Wednesday.

    A 10-year plan [2020-2030], outlined during a livestreamed speech at the Australian Defence Force Academy, includes working with the United States to develop missile defense for deployed forces and acquiring long-range missiles to protect shipping lanes.

    It also calls for Australian military satellites, new drones, enhanced cyber capabilities and an underwater surveillance system.

    The plan will take annual defense spending beyond 2% of GDP, Morrison said.

    Morrison said his nation faces “the most challenging times since the 1930s and early 1940s.”

    The nation must prepare for a post-pandemic world that is poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly, he said.

    “The Indo-Pacific is the epicenter of rising strategic competition,” Morrison said. “It is the focus of the dominant global contest of our age.”

    Tensions over territorial claims are rising across the region from the South China Sea to the East China Sea and the border between China and India, he said.

    Meanwhile, military capabilities are expanding, coercive activities are rife, and technology is enabling more disinformation and foreign interference, Morrison added.

    “The rest of the world and Australia are not just bystanders to this,” he said. “We are undertaking the biggest regeneration of our navy since the second World War and have chartered the transition to a fifth-generation air force.”

    Morrison promised to boost the military’s ability to deal with “gray zone” activity against Australia’s interests that falls below the threshold of traditional armed conflict.

    Australia will purchase the AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile from the U.S. Navy at a cost of US$553 million, The Australian newspaper reported Tuesday. The missile has a range of more than 230 miles compared to the 77-mile range of Australia’s 1980s-era AGM-84 air-launched Harpoon anti-ship missile.

    Up to US$6.42 billion will also be spent on research and development into high-speed, long-range weapons, including hypersonic weapons, the newspaper reported.

    A further US$6.91 billion to US$11.75 billion will be spent on fighter aircraft, suggesting Australia may expand its Joint Strike Fighter program involving the F-35 Lightning II, according to the newspaper.

    Australia is also looking at acquiring the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the U.S. Army, the newspaper reported.

    A massive underwater surveillance system using high-tech sensors costing between US$3.45 billion and US$4.83 billion is one of the biggest new purchases that could eventually also include unmanned submarines, the newspaper reported. [we already have a system that needs upgrading and are a part beneficiary of a Japan-US-Australia-(with a new India leg) sensor array, further out.]

    The plan is a hardening of Australia’s strategic position and mirrors a hardening of the U.S. position, Paul Buchanan, an American security analyst based in Auckland, New Zealand, said in an email Wednesday.

    “The US makes no bones about the fact that China is considered to be the prime adversary in the Western Pacific,” he said. “The Australians feel the same.”

    Australia and other states in the region are reacting to China’s actions, Buchanan said.

    “[The Chinese] have been very provocative and have really pushed the envelope of toleration amongst their neighbors,” he said.

    The Australian defense boost puts the Chinese on notice that they will not be able to project power unimpeded, Buchanan added.

    “They are going to ring fence China as much as possible,” he said. “At least the Australians will have the assets to make it very costly for China to do military progression in the Southwest Pacific.”"

    PETE COMMENT

    Note much of the US$186 billion (equivalent) is for a timeframe so far out (ie. 2026 to 2030)  Australia had not budgeted for it previously. Put another way, the Coalition Government of Prime Minister Morrison will not (and expects not) to need to keep a promise now regarding military spending in six years time (2026 onwards).

    Australia is very unstable in terms of peak governance. In the last ten years Australia has experienced six Prime Ministers and seven Elections (scroll down a bit at elections link). In that turmoil Australia often alternates between Coalition and Labor Governments who don't keep the other's promises or maintain each other's Defence Budgets projections.

    For example 6 years from today
    is 2 (and possibly 3) elections away.

    As political poetry goes.

    By the time Australia's COVID-19 pandemic ends the Australian Government will have spent around US$200 billion extra in stimulus socio-economic programs to keep things ticking over. Given the unexpectedly high Government stimulus deficit resulting, embarking on a major increase in defence spending within Australia's limited GDP, is unaffordable. Something's got to give. Social welfare spending and tax reductions win more elections than defence spending. 

    Eden-Monaro By-Election: Gov Lost on Preferences-Bushfires Link

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    On July 4, 2020 the seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW, Australia, had a By-Electiondue to the resignation of the sitting Labor Member, Mike Kelly. Eden-Monaro (E-M) is a key electoral seat/district in Australia. Up to the 2016 election, E-M was long regarded as Australia's most well-known "bellwether seat". From the 1972 electionuntil the 2013 election, E-M was won by the party that also won the overall Federal Election for the whole of Australia.

    SUMMARY

    The main takeaways are that the
    Labor Party won E-M on July 4, 2020, by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). The main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Liberal-National Coalition Government's poor bushfire performance – especially that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was on a Hawaiin holiday when E-M was hardest hit by bushfires in December 2019 to February 2020.

    IN DETAIL

    It is also not surprising Labor won because in this situation because to lose would have been a 1 in 100 year event. Put another way if the Liberals won it would have been the first Federal Government win against a Labor held seat candidate, in a by-election, for more than 100 years.


    -  Labor only won due to preferences. Most significantly/oddly from the SFFP (see "burning to the ground"). The Liberals would have won if they negotiated the usual preference deal with SFFP. A significant number of SFFP voters were likely burned out, or very threatened, by the bushfires (holidaying Morrison's main mistake).

    -  Labor won with just over 2,000 FEWERFirst Preference votes than the Liberals

    -  Labor won on a margin of less than 1% (ie. 0.44%or 822 TPP votes - so far - as postal votes are still being counted). Labor won E-M in 2019 by a slightly larger margin, of 0.85% TPP.

    -  The Liberal Party candidate, Fiona Kotvojs, speaks/presents well. However, she needed more media airtime to display that during the campaign, with airtime/rallies reduced by COVID-19 social distancing requirements.

    It all seems a case, in E-M, of Labor drifting more to the centre-right (with virtually no union concerns in E-M other than some light union activity by nurses). Meanwhile the Morrison Coalition Government is drifting to a COVID stimulus centre-left policy direction (which may have picked up some young "JobKeeper" and "JobSeeker" social welfare votes).

    So it could be said the Labor Opposition Leader Albanese remains popular, but only just and by a decreased projected majority. It is possible the previous Labor Opposition Leader Bill Shorten may snatch the Labor leadership back in time for the expected 2022 Federal Election or may wait for Albanese to lose the 2022 Election then Shorten will take the helm again as Labor leader.

    Pete

    Coronavirus Limerick

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    This month my local poetry group are writing their own limericks. Limericks are usually at the lightweight, funny, frequently rude end of poetry, but they don't need to be.

    I penned the following Limerick today:

    The was a young lad called Fred
    Whose Grandpa became sick in bed
    Mum and Dad didn’t say
    Why he was wasting away
    Now poor Fred’s Grandpa is dead...

    Pete

    Great Attack Class Submarine Update

    US V-22 Ospreys for Indonesian Makassar-class LPDs?

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    Shawn C advised offline on July 7/8, 2020 of a possible sale of US Osprey tiltrotors to Indonesia.


    The US State Department has approved the sale of eight MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft to Indonesia, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announcedJuly 6, 2020.

    The announcement comes as Japan (the first non-US buyer for Ospreys) prepares to deploy its first of 17 Ospreys to Camp Kisarazu, a Japan Army airfield in Chiba Prefecture.

    A US Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey in 2014 (Photograph courtesy FOX 52 via Wikipedia)
    ---

    The total cost to Indonesia for the Ospreys, along with related equipment, is estimated at US$2 billion, DSCA said in a statement.

    The sale includes 24 Rolls Royce engines, infrared radars, missile warning systems, multi-band radios, airborne GPS, machine guns and various other equipment along with software, training for personnel and U.S. government and contractor engineering, logistics and technical support, the statement said.

    Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation with territory spread across more than 17,000 islands, employs a large fleet of conventional military aircraft for disaster relief and in a decades’ long fight against Islamic extremists [PETE COMMENT: not to mention Indonesia straffing defenseless Chistians in East Timor (1975-1999) and West Papuan villages withOV-10F Broncos from the US!]. Like several other Southeast Asia nations, Indonesia claims South China Sea territory that is also claimed by China."

    “This proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of an important regional partner that is a force for political stability, and economic progress in the Asia-Pacific region,” the agency’s statement said. “It is vital to U.S. national interest to assist Indonesia in developing and maintaining a strong and effective self-defense capability.”

    The proposed sale will enhance Indonesia’s humanitarian and disaster relief capabilities and support amphibious operations, the statement added.” [see good Youtube video on the possible sale, 25 seconds in at https://youtu.be/31jfJqLZKk4 ]
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Shawn C says that he is not sure how the Osprey deal will actually go through when in May 2020 Indonesia reported it had cut its defence budget by $500 million due to COVID-19.

    Interesting to note Indonesia pays cash to the US while Indonesia does a part-commodities trade with the Russians.

     Indonesian Navy’s KRI Makassar (Pennant No. 590) commissioned in April 2007.
    --- 

    The Indonesians have the capacity to use Ospreys on Indonesia’sMakassar-class Landing Platform Docks (LPDs).These LPDs will probably need heat modifications on their helicopter decks due to the hot air engine blast of the Ospreys. Makassars are a bit austere - in fact they will need significant reinforcement to land a heavy V-22 on their helicopter deck.

    The Ospreys will be useful for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in cyclone/typhoon and Tsunami prone Indonesia. But for the cost of one Osprey Indonesia could buy two Indonesian built short takeoff and landing turboprop transports (eg. theIndonesian Aerospace N-219 and larger).

    Shawn C is interested in Indonesia’s Makassar-class LPD - they have been good business for the Indonesian national shipbuilder PT PALhaving sold Makassars to the Indonesian, Philippine and Malaysian navies. Meanwhile South Korea’s Daesun has sold Makassars to the Myanmar and Peruvian navies (Peru on selling one to the Brazilian Navy). Also see The Diplomat paysite article. 

    Here's a good video at navyrecognitionShawn C found of the Peruvian Navy launching their Makassar class - you can peer right into the ship, and it made Shawn C realise how austere it is – troop berthing must be quite packed, like a WW2 Landing Ship Tank.   

    A Makassar cost close to US$50 million (cost for Indonesian Navy? More for export?) - so for US$2 billion the Indonesians could fund 20 Makassar ships and up to 30 EC725 helicopters, which would allow them to spread out their naval and marine forces more nodally across the Indonesian Archipelago. 

    Or the Indonesians could reinject the funds (and better oversight) to Indonesia’s troubled local transport aircraft programs - which just lost 'national strategic priority' due to delays: see https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20200625155909-199-517506/putra-bj-habibie-bicara-beda-masa-depan-drone-dan-pesawat-ri(Indonesian language article. Right-click mouse to translate into English).

    More from Shawn C, on other subjects, tomorrow.

    US Sanctions: India, China; PLAN Political Commissars

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    Following Shawn C's comments, offline, on Ospreys for Indonesian Makassar LPDs yesterday, Shawn C has two more comments, along the lines:

    1.  Speaking of the Russians - the US sanctioned China for buying Russian aircraft

    [In 2018, the US imposed sanctionson China for buying ten Su-35s from Russia and for China buying Russian S-400 SAM systems, 2018 onwards] bet the US won't do anything to India for buying Russian high-tech aircraft. The Russian designed SU-30MKI built under licence from Russia by India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)deal is to keep HAL floating. [ie. solvent].

    Pete Comment - While the US may not sanction India for buying/building Russian aircraft the US is sensitive about India buying Russian S-400 SAMs : "The United States threatened India with sanctions over India's decision to buy the S-400 missile defense system from Russia because India chose S-400 over American origin Patriot pac 3.[156]"

    2.  Author’s Jeff W. Benson and Zi Yang. at Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), have written a 50 page, June 2020, study“Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy” (aka  "PLAN Commissar Study") at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/200626_BensonYang_PartyOnTheBridge_Web_v2.pdf

    Takeaways of the PLAN Commissar Study include:

    - in China CCP political commissars are the same rank and have the equivalent combat and systems training as commanding officers of a naval unit (squadron, flotilla or major warship (maybe submarine and destroyer, frigate major supply ship on up).

    The dual-command system gives commissars some specific roles (eg. unit morale, CCP party indoctrination) and some shared roles.

    Western naval commanders who could find themselves opposing a Chinese Navy (PLAN) ship need to understand the “CCP before everything” mentality, and that everything a PLAN warship commander does is intentional.

    Pete Comment - concerted and interesting discussion on submarines begins from page 15 to 21. eg. on page 15 submarine the commissar-Party Committee chain have a say whether suspected pirate boats should be confronted, fisherman saved and whether the sub should surface or remain submerged when seawater piping malfunctions. Nevertheless in emergency situation a submarine commander can issue orders independently [Pete Comment - doesn't that sound like an ambiguous command recipe! Unfortunately the 50 page study did not appear to say anything about commissar's or CCP influence on SSBN/nuclear weapons doctrine.

    A good article on the PLAN Commissar Study is John Grady’s, July 3, 2020, USNI article “Political Commissars on Chinese Warships Play Crucial Role in Interactions With Foreign Vessels” at https://news.usni.org/2020/07/03/political-commissars-on-chinese-warships-play-crucial-role-in-interactions-with-foreign-vessels

    Shawn C and Pete

    China Economically Risky: Japan-Australia Business Strengthen Ties: Details

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    Anonymous, on July 9, 2020 commented:

    Noting the growing US-China confrontation and as a pathway for Japan, Yukimitsu Sanada (Professor, Department of Business, Aichi Shukutoku University) [1] proposed greater trade and investment co-operation between Japan and Australia.

    The world economy, including trade supply chains, has been damaged by the Coronavirus spread. Australia has a huge amount of resources in its vast land area. Japan should invest in Australia and to increase Australian economic productivityry.

    Anonymous thinks it is an interesting idea.

    [1] Prime News 08/07/2020 (Fuji TV, Japan) (Professor Yukimitsu Sanada is an expert on East Asian regional economy and international finance, at Aichi Shukutoku University). Takabumi Suzuooki (or Suzuki?) and Yukimitsu Sanada made an excellent presentation/analysis on the politics of South Korea and international finance in Japan.

    PETE COMMENT

    Three useful sources on Japan-Australia trade promotion are:


    1. the Australia Japan Business Co-operation Committee (AJBCC) "about" which has a large number of Australian academic, corporate and government members and
    its Counterpart Organisation is the "Japan Australia Business Co-operation Committee (JABCC) based in Tokyo. "The list of JABCC member companies is available here.
    Overview of the JABCC and its activities. " [which takes the reader to the Australia-Japan Economic Commission (website in Japanese BUT right-click mouse to translate into English)


    So the AJBCC and JABCC may now have been effectively renamed the:

    2.  the Australia-Japan Economic Commission (website in Japanese BUT right-click mouse to translate into English, as Pete did). Its Chairman is Akio Mimura, President of Tosho Nikko. 

    The 57th Japan-Australia Economic Joint Committee Meeting was held in Osaka Prefecture from October 7 to 9, 2019:

    "In the opening remark, Chairman Mimura addressed the common theme of the plenary session as "a new partnership for the future" and new themes such as "Resources and Energy and SDGs". , I want to create an opportunity to think about the future of Japan and Australia."

    "The two-day plenary session will actively exchange views on the issues and roles that the two countries should tackle under the five themes such as "infrastructure investment, urban development, urban concentration,""sessions by next-generation leaders," and "innovation startups." The we. At each session, the possibility of new business opportunities was discussed, and it was introduced that concrete cooperation and partnerships are progressing across industries, regions, and generations."

    The two chairs summarized the conference, "In addition to the long-standing traditional relationship between Australia and Japan, we need to strengthen our two countries by building new relationships for the future."

    The next meeting is scheduled for October 18-20, 2020, in Adelaide, Australia.

    and


    3.  the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Factsheet on the "Australia-Japan bilateral relationship" including "Strategic partnership" and "Economic engagement"

    Anonymous and Pete
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