One of Trump’s first naval-defense policy advisers, the ideologue Senator Sessions, is next to Trump. Sessions, like Trump, is an outsider in terms of Washington Establishment thinking (Photo courtesy Associated Press, 7 November 2016)

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Hi Donors

I've just emailed ACTORS AND SOME INFLUENCES ON TRUMP’S NAVAL POLICIES out to you as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

For other readers wishing to receive ACTORS AND SOME INFLUENCES ON TRUMP’S NAVAL POLICIES please donate A$50. Please use the Donate Button on the righthand Submarine Matters sidebar. Once I have received your Donation I will email this Report to you. Over the next 12 months I will then send you a special Report for donors at least once a week.

Regards

Peter Coates
Director
Submarine Matters International

In response to (now President-Elect) Trump's oft repeated questioning of the sanctity of alliances Japan has been quietly hedging, anticipating a gradual withdrawal of US extended nuclear deterrence.

Japan has definitly developed two of the three essential components of a nuclear weapons capability:

1. a viable nuclear weapon delivery system (see Japan's dual-use delivery system, the Epsilon rocket.

below), and

2. a nuclear reprocessing program that, in part, yields the nuclear explosive of choice,

Plutonium. (also see)

3?. Over the last 65 years such an advanced nuclear energy power as Japan will have at least design
plans under lock-and-key for the third element, a viable nuclear device. "During the Sato cabinet

in the 1960's, it is reported that Japan secretly studied the development of nuclear weapons."

With today's computer modeling Japan would not even need to test a nuclear device. Certainly Japan would have little trouble developing a fission device - given plans for such devices were distributed by the A Q Khan network decades ago.

A Japanese Epsilon rocket, with dual-use potential as a future nuclear armed ICBM, launched from Uchinoura Space Center, southern Japan, September 2013, carrying satellite.
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JAPAN'S DUAL-USE DELIVERY SYSTEM

Japan's Epsilon rocket. Specifications for the Epsilon include: Height 24.4m, Diameter 2.5m, Mass 91 tons, 3 or 4 stages. Its shape, with no strap-on boosters, is ideal for silo, rail or truck launch. Reduced to 2 stages it might provide the basis for an SLBM.

These Epsilon specs are very similar to the developed but cancelled US MX ICBM. MXs specs are Height 22m, Diameter 2.3m, Weight 97 tons, 3 stages, blast yield 3 Mt total (using up to 10 MIRVs).

Modern ballistic missiles generally have solid fuel stages (for quicker preparation and more rugged handling) rather than liquid fuel typically used in civilian rockets. So it is notable that the first, second and third stages of the Epsilon are solid fuel.

The 2013 Epsilon launch, carrying satellite.

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The extent to which the US assisted JAXA's Epsilon Project is unclear. Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) is Japan’s NASA equivalent. Space agencies have dual military-civilian use technology and dual-use career personnel.

Pete

This depth-map indicates the choke-points (narrows) where both NATO submarines entered the Mediterranean Sea, ie. the US Virginia class through the Strait of Gibralter (on the map, extreme left) and the Dutch Walrus class (lower, right corner) near Port Said, Egypt.
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WALRUS (SSK) AND VIRGINIA (SSN) DETECTION DETAILS

Various Russian sensors were involved in the recent detection of two NATO submarines. Sensors included:

- publically admitted, over-water (ASW helicopters) and surface ASW ships (see BACKGROUND)

- (more secretly) Russian Kilo submarines, near stopped, operating at choke-points.

- equally secret were seafloor sensor arrays used: near the Strait of Gibraltar; another north of Port

Said at the northern opening of the Suez Canal; and yet another outside of Russia's Tartus (Syria)

naval base.

Russia's Main (Military) Intelligence Directorate (known as GRU) reported that a Dutch Walrus class submarine transiting the Suez Canal emerged into the Mediterranean Sea only to "rendezvous" with, be intercepted by, various ASW sensors.

GRU was already aware that the Dutch sub, after Indian Ocean regional ops, had then transited the Suez Canal from south to north with a known time of emerging into the Med. This made it quite easy for a Kilo (from the Black Sea fleet) to cue or "rendezvous" with the Dutch sub. This Kilo gained valuable intelligence on characteristics of some upgrade work done on the Dutch sub.

The US Virginia class SSN had earlier been (predictably) tailing the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group from a range of 70km. As the Virginia class sub transited the Strait of Gibraltar (traveling from west to east into the Med) it was detected by a fixed seabed sensor array (perhaps in cooperation with local assistance). The detection was later confirmed by Russian helicopter dipping sonars (active) and ship bow sonars.

GRU further reported that, by their behaviour, the Walrus and Virginia class subs positively detected the presence of the Kilo subs.

BACKGROUND

Allen Cone, for UPI reported on 9 November 2016 "Russia: Dutch sub tried to approach, spy on aircraft carrier" http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/11/09/Russia-Dutch-sub-tried-to-approach-spy-on-aircraft-carrier/6431478701381/

"(MOSCOW, Nov. 9 (UPI)) -- A Dutch submarine attempted to spy on a Russian aircraft carrier after approaching it in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.

The Northern Fleet's anti-submarine ships forced the sub to leave the area near Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.

"The clumsy attempts to carry out dangerous manoeuvres in the direct proximity of the Russian group of warships could have led to grave navigation consequences," he said.

He said two anti-submarine ships, Severomorsk and the Vice-Admiral Kulakov, at 6:50 a.m. spotted a Dutch navy sub, which neared the Northern Fleet's aircraft carrier group for surveillance purposes."

He said the crews "easily identified the submarine that was 20 kilometers [12.5 miles] away using the standard onboard hydroacoustics systems and data obtained from anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27 PL. Despite the submarine's attempts to evade surveillance, a stable hydroacoustic contact was established with it."

Konashenkov said they monitored the submarine for more than an hour and forced it to leave the carrier group.

"It is noteworthy that submarines of such class, having big displacement, are not fit for reconnaissance," the spokesman said.

The ministry official also said the Russian navy's aircraft carrier group regularly spotted NATO's submarines on its way to the Mediterranean.

Earlier this month, he said the USS Virginia was trying to spy on Russian vessels.

Last month, Russia's Northern Fleet's the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, accompanied by the Pyotr Veliky battle cruiser, the Severomorsk and Kulakov, and support vessel were sent to the Mediterranean to hold drills and strengthen capabilities."

Please connect with Submarine Matters articles:

- Russia set to unleash carrier aircraft and SLCMs on IS in Syriaof 31 October 2016, and

- Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov may conduct first airstrikes (against IS), October 17, 2016.

Pete

All the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details are revealed HERE, including:

"Security enhancements

“Prior to Trump's return to his private residence at Trump Tower around November 10, the United States Secret Service initiated "unbelievable security measures", including:

- closing East 56th Street to all traffic

- reinforcing a cordon of sand-laden dump trucks that had been placed around the building the night

before to defend the site from being rammed with a car bomb,

- deploying New York City Police Department tactical teams around the skyscraper, and

- the FAA, meanwhile, ordered a flight restriction over midtown Manhattan.”

Security arrangements around Trump's "log cabin" frays New Yorkers. Look Trump owns the street. He's a Billionaire, its HIS Tower and he's the Next Prez. Respect!

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Defense-Navy Related Transition Team Structure and Staff

The Transition Team is divided the work into two areas: "agency action" led by Ron Nicol (a former nuclear submarine officer) and "policy implementation"….The agency side, which oversees appointments, is divided into six arenas. Three relevant to Submarine Matters are:

- National Security, led by former Rep. Mike Rogers [former Chairman of the Permanent Select

Committee on Intelligence]

- Defense, led by Keith Kellogg, the former commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division, and

- RobertSmith Walker - former member of Congress from Pennsylvania and chair of the Hydrogen

and Fuel Cell Technical Advisory Committee of the U.S. Department of Energy, is advising the

transition on space policy"

Thankyou youtube and wikipedia :)

Pete

Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

Aussie troops, US Army and Marines, fought Japanese forces in New Guinea in WWII (1942 to 1945). (Photo courtesy US and Australian Army).

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The above photograph depicts US General Westmoreland, Commander, US Military Assistance Command Vietnam, speaking to Aussie troopers, C Squadron, 1st Armoured Regiment about the enemy attack (in 1968) on Fire Support Base Coral, Vietnam. (Photo Australian Army)

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The US and Australia utilised the ANZUS Treaty to back Australia's (ongoing) military support for the US in Afghanistan. The initial component of Australia's support was the SAS. (Photo above courtesy news(dot)com9dot)au.

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COMMENT

Australia is a dedicated supporter of US military ventures overseas (photos above). Australia spends a reasonable amount of money on defence - at 1.9% of GDP. Australia stands to gain from US armed forces and defence budget expansion.

Japan has its own foreign and defence policy traditions and attitudes. However, I would say, that to maintain full US support in Northeast Asia Japan will need to:

- support US ventures overseas (especially in the Middle East, a region that produces

most of Japn's oil), and

- pay around 2% of GDP rather than only 1% on Japanese defence spending, and

- Japan needs to begin a (probably secret) nuclear program, and

- spend much more maintaining US forces in Japan/Okinawa.

I offer this advice freely, at no extra cost, to the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MOD).

ABC ARTICLE

Australia's Government supported news agency ABC Online reports, 16 November 2016, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-16/pyne-flags-immense-opportunities-if-trump-expands-us-military/8029466:

"Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

By political reporter Francis Keany

Updated 34 minutes ago

MAP: United States

The [Australian] Federal Government says Australia is well positioned to take advantage of a "gigantic" expansion of the United States military flagged by the incoming Trump administration.

[Australian] Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also downplayed the prospect of the US demanding Australia increase its spending as a percentage of GDP.

Key points:

Rudy Giuliani flags an aggressive expansion of America's military
Government says as a close ally with the US the country is well positioned to benefit from the expansion
Christopher Pyne says Australia is "pulling its weight" in both military spending and operations

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is reportedly a leading contender to become the next US Secretary of State, flagged an aggressive expansion of American forces.

Mr Pyne said Australia's strong links with the US would benefit defence manufacturing at home.

He told a submarine industry conference in Canberra, based on comments by Donald Trump, a half-a-trillion-dollar expansion of the US military was possible.

"A hundred new planes, 70 new naval vessels, 50 to 60,000 new army, 12 new marine corps, the opportunities for Australia, because of our very close relationship with the United States, are boundless," he said.

"We already have amazing companies like Austal and CEA and others that are part of the US military spend, they could expand."

Mr Pyne said Australia was "pulling its weight" not just in military spending but in terms of military operations with the US.

"President-elect Trump has called countries around the world who are US allies and are not at 2 per cent [of spending] strategic bludgers," Mr Pyne said.

"Fortunately we are not strategic bludgers because we are at 2 per cent of gross domestic product, and given the spend of the Turnbull Government over the next 10 years, I imagine that will be surpassed at some stage in the future."

He said the Government was staying "in close contact" with Mr Trump's transition team.

"We are very much linked into the Trump team," Mr Pyne said.

Mr Giuliani earlier this week said Mr Trump's military strategy was focused around "peace through strength".

"If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetrical warfare, they may challenge you, but I doubt it," Mr Giuliani said.

"I am a big advocate of military spending."

Pete

Great footage of Kuznetsov carrier operations.
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Due to my too frequent (self-inflicted) Comment writing this week I've decided not to send out a Report (ending Friday 18 November).

Instead I'll send donors 2 Reports next week on:

1. Implications of Russian Carrier Kuznetsov Airstrikes on Islamists in Syria, and

2. South Korea Developing Nuclear Weapons and Propulsion (Japan?)

Regards

Pete

Regarding Chinese Government special political activity in Australia, 2008 to the present. In 2008 Chinese diplomats mobilised and payed for 10,000s of pro-Beijing supporters (Chinese students) who travelled 100's of kms, from Sydney and Melbourne to Canberra (Australia's capital). This was for a 2 hour "spontaneous" loyalty demonstration. Pro-Tibet democracy protesters were crowded out and intimidated as were Australian police. The occasion was the pro-Beijing Olympics (2008) Torch Relay. Location was the usually Australian Federal Government controlled Federal Triangle, Canberra, 24 April 2008.

Just imagine if the Australian Embassy tried to do the same "support" protest organising in Beijing? Tiananmen Square II? (Photo courtesy Getty images).

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Andrew Greene, for Australia’s government financed news agency ABC Online, reported on 20 November 2016. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-20/how-many-spies-does-china-have-in-australia/8041004:

“Chinese spies in Australia on the rise, former diplomat Chen Yonglin says”

“Chen Yonglin, the Chinese diplomat who sensationally quit his job [at the Chinese consulate in Sydney Australia, in 2005] more than a decade ago, has broken a lengthy silence to warn of a growing number of spies and agents working for Beijing in Australia.

Key points:

- Chen Yonglin successfully sought political asylum in Australia after resigning his diplomat role

- Warned more that 1,000 Chinese spies in Australia

- Says "majority of Chinese community representatives" work for [Chinese] Government

- In 2005, Mr Chen caused global headlines when he claimed China was operating a network of

"over 1,000 Chinese secret agents and informants in Australia".

The former diplomat, who now works as a businessman, [Chen] has warned the number of secretive Chinese operatives has steadily grown since he stopped working for China's foreign service.

"There should be some increase after over 10 years because China is now the wealthiest government in the world, they should have money, they should be [able] to afford raise a huge number of spies here," he told ABC News.

He stressed the increase was mainly in casual informants who provided crucial pieces of intelligence to Beijing.

Since successfully seeking political asylum in Australia, Mr Chen said he had become growingly concerned about Beijing's influence in his new home.

He believes that of particular concern is last year's decision to approve a 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to Chinese-owned company Landbridge [presumably this will be a great job opening for Chinese Military Intelligence, performing under cover in Darwin. Great job :]

[President Obama and the US Navy were very unhappy!]

"I think it's very stupid. It's common sense that Darwin Port is strategically important and against the northern invasion," he said.

Mr Chen has also hit out at activists who have recently taken to the streets to show support for China's military expansion in the South China Sea.

"A majority of Chinese community representatives work for the Chinese Government," he said. ENDS

COMMENT

China’s Military Intelligence and also Civilian Intelligence personnel (eg. from the Ministry of State Security (MSS)) are doing an excellent job in Australia. This includes human intelligence (HUMINT) gathering utilising Chinese students, business people, journalists, diplomats and defence attaches and pro-China Australian citizens etc. China is also influencing Australian politics and compromising Federal politicians (who maybe can be bought remarkably cheaply?). Articles include:

- My On Line Opinionarticle of 5 May 2008 Embracing China involves risks for Australia about

possible Chinese intelligence involvement in Chinese student mobilisation in Australia. In it I give
some emphasis to Chen Yonglin's revelations about Chinese intelligence activities.

and

- A major Sydney Morning Herald article of 7 May 2009, Defence 'rejected' minister spy link
concerns.

Pete

Admiral Kuznetsov's jet fighter airwing is now on land, probably at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base, Latakia, north coastal Syria (see map below). This Airbus/IHS photo is a reconnaissance satellite's view of 6 x Sukhoi Su-33 multirole fighters from Kuznetsovparked (upper centre).

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The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is apparently no longer launching air strikes after a complete failure of its arrester wire landing system - see http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/107336/20161203/russian-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-longer-launching-air-strikes-complete.htm

COMMENTS

In addition to arrester wire problems the relocation of Kuznetsov’s jetfighter airwing to a land base may be due to:

- Russia's first shooting war carrier opeations of jets in Syria from November 15, 2016 may always

have been intended merely as a temporary international-public relations opportunity by Putin

- the jets can only carry relatively light, tactically insufficient, loads of fuel and weapons when

launched from Kuznetsov's ski-jump.

: China and India's ski-jump carriers do (or will) suffer from the same fuel and weapon's load
limitations

- the greater, unforgiving, danger (see MiG-29 crash below) of fighters operating from a carrier

compared to longer, non-shifting runways on air bases

- Russia's Khmeimim Latakia Air Base is closer to Russia's main current target (Aleppo - see map

below) than Kuznetsov can get.

- attempts to move Kuznetsov too far north up the Syrian coast may cause political-legal-sea zone

problems with Turkey.

- Turkish Type 209 and future (Piri Reis?) 214TNs? submarines are a remote but still significant

threat to Kuznetsov

- the strategically and legally surer "permanent Russian" treaty staus of Khmeimim Air Base

(since October 2016) makes this air base option increasingly attractive compared to a carrier

- carrier operations cause wear and tear on the landing gear, and increased salt rust, for Su-33s and

MiG-29Ks. These are downsides not present at an air base

- Kuznetsov's well known ship propulsion problems may prevent this carrier from regularly

attaining sufficient speed over the bow, to guarantee safe ski-jump launch of jets and to assist in

effective arrested landing of jets.

ARTICLE

Arthur Dominic Villasanta on Chinese-American website China TopixDecember 3, 2016 reports “Russian Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov no Longer Launching Air Strikes after Complete Failure of Landing System”. http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/107336/20161203/russian-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-longer-launching-air-strikes-complete.htm

Russia has called off naval air strikes against anti-Assad rebels in Syria launched from the dilapidated RFS Admiral Kuznetsov (063), apparently after a complete failure of the carrier's arrester landing system that couldn't be fixed.

Western intelligence sources reveal the Kuznetsov embarked at least eight Sukhoi Su-33s carrier based air superiority fighters and four of the new MiG-29KR [in English K can mean carrier, R can mean Russian (carrier) variant] multirole fighters for its deployment to the Eastern Mediterranean.

On Nov. 14, one of the carrier's Cold War-era Mikoyan MiG-29KR naval multirole fighters crashed into the Mediterranean Sea shortly after take-off in the aging carrier's first bombing mission against anti-Assad rebels.

[see longer explanation in article]

The failure of Kuznetsov's arresting gear system has forced the Russian Navy to remove all its fighters from the carrier and station them at the [Russia's Khmeimim/Hmeimim/Humaymim) Air Base in Latakia province], Russia's largest air base in Syria a few days later.

Western reconnaissance photos show the carrier's Sukhoi and MiG jets parked alongside other jets belonging to the Russian Air Force. The carrier's jets have been launching air strikes from Humaymin for the past two weeks.

The Kuznetsov isn't a true aircraft carrier in the same category as U.S. Navy carriers but is classified by the Russian Navy as a heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser.

She's the largest ship ever built by Russia and is the flagship of the navy's Northern Fleet. She will be retired by the 2020s after being commissioned in the 1990s.

Western military analysts doubt her seaworthiness since this aircraft carrier's history has been marred by an unending series of engine failures and other technical mishaps. During her fourth deployment to the Mediterranean in 2011, she was shadowed by the United States Sixth Fleet that anticipated she would sink along the way given her poor condition.

The Admiral Kuznetsov caught fire during a previous deployment to the Mediterranean in 2009, an incident that killed one sailor. Her condition was so pitiful, Russian tugboats had to escort her in case her engines broke down.”

Russia's Khmeimim Air Base (aka Hmeimim or Latakia Air Base) is at Latakia, north coastal Syria (see map above). This Air Base is only accessible to Russian personnel. In October 2016 Russia ratified a treaty with Syria making Khmeimin Russia's permanent air base abroad.

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Pete

Social media activities of submariners and other employees who work at the SSBN Base at Kings Bay, Georgia, USA, need monitoring.

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The telephone exchange closest to Kings Bay (on Base or at Jacksonville?) needs network, technical defences to thwart efforts by Chinese and Russian intelligence attempting to organise traffic analysis or even in-clear connections. Also see map.

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Michael Glynn has written an interesting, long, article “Information Management In Next Generation Anti-Submarine Warfare” for Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC). Here I focus on a fragment below:

Under “Operations Analysis” Michael writes about WWII, Cold War and future use of operations analysis for ASW purposes. This includes:

"ASW forces of tomorrow will have to rediscover the value of operations analysis and apply these efforts at the operational and tactical levels. ASW task forces will be equipped with all-source intelligence fusion centers. Cueing information will flow from traditional means such as the Integrated Undersea Surveillance System, signals intelligence, and novel means assisted by big data analytics. Methods as unusual as monitoring the social media or Internet activity of adversary crew members and their families may provide indications that a submarine is getting underway."

PETE'S COMMENTS

I've bolded "Methods as unusual as monitoring the social media or Internet activity of adversary crew members and their families may provide indications that a submarine is getting underway."

If I put my (ficticious) Chinese or Russian cyber-intelligence hat on I see rich pickings by tieing in my advanced software and big budget to fully exploit possibilities that Twitter, Google and Facebook use offers.

For both China and Russia the ability to use much locally developed internet software/hardware and adapt "Silicon Valley" commercial software can increase the chances of exploitation. Cyber defenders may be a little nervous to what extent the basically Moscow headquartered Kaspersky Lab anti-virus multinational safeguards Western secrets against Russian intelligence exploitation. If I were in Russia's NSA equivalent I wouldn't hesitate to lean on Russia companies with access.

- in another direction the federal Australian and US Governments are hyper-sensitive about the perceived security risks of integrating software and hardware of China's massive Huawei computer-telecommunications equipement provider.

- Chinese or Russian cyber-intelligence may utilise algorithms and databases alert them when known daughters or girlfriends of known US, UK, German or Australian submariners Tweet or update their Facebook account that "Dad or Fred is away at sea again".

- Young submariners who already have an internationally identified Twitter or (especially) Facebook social media profile may reveal that they have a compromising lifestyle (cheating on a spouse?) that could be exploited by the "right" approach of Chinese or Russian intelligence agencies one day, even if years later.

- current of former submariners (who might also be Chinese linguists) may need to steer clear of Confucius Institutes (fronts?)

- A more traditional signals intelligence approach to track SMS, mobile voice and landline voice would be to establish connections directly or indirectly through a phone company employee with the telephone exchange that it closest to a submarine base. Suitable targets may be an exchange closest to:

- Kings Bay Georgia, US, SSBN Base, (see photo and map above) or

- if a Russian, gain access to the exchange closest to Germany's major Eckernförde Naval Base where Germany's Type 212A 1st Submarine Squadron is based. Gaining a traffic analysis connection (no need to decrypt) to DHO38 might attract the odd Russian.

- in Australia the naval facilities at the Port of Darwin may be vulnerable because a Chinese company now owns the port (for 99 years).

Good Western human and technical security to guard against rapidly developing social media and exchange vulnerabilities is an increasing need.

Pete

As South Korea is contemplating nuclear weapons might Israel assist it by developing the solid-fuel rocket, super or hypersonic, Popeye Turbo "cruise" missile for ROK horizontal torpedo tube submarine use?

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With varying amounts of publicity South Korea-Republic of Korea (ROK) has been considering developing its own nuclear weapons capability since 1970. The main determinant appears to be ROK's confidence, or lack of confidence, that the US will continue to extend nuclear deterrence in ROK’s favour. An ROK capability may take one to three years to develop.

Events or trends driving current ROK thinking include:

- North Korea’s (NK’s) continuing ballistic missile, SLBM and nuclear tests and threats to use

them against ROK

- Since early 2016 Trump’s "abandon ROK" and "ROK develop its own nuclear capability"

statements.

- Since October 2016 the major instability in the ROK Government of President Park Geun-hye

may be causing significant (though undiscernable) changes in the ROK leadership's attitude to the

nuclear option.

Regarding Trump, playing on the minds of ROK’s leaders is the 1949 removal of US protection which quickly led to the NK invasion of 1949. If Trump becomes aware of history he may need to be told that the US very quickly and expensively needed to return to the Korean Peninsula in 1949 to defend ROK and indirectly Japan against NK as well as Chinese (and less acknowledged) Soviet Russian aggression.

Due to the grim strategic threats against ROK it is following hedging policies to reduce the chance of North Korean attack. Policies include:

- Maintain a relatively high defence budget of 2.6% GDP - partly to signal ROK resolve to the US.

- Deploying conventional military equipment (including landand sea based ABM/BMD systems).

But note BMD systems are less effective against future NK SLBMs because the launch points and

trajectories of SLBMs or even cruise missiles (SLCMs) are less known in a BMD database.

- plans to develop and deploy nuclear weapons and much later nuclear propulsion.

This activity or potential is partly aimed at ensuring US conventional and nuclear extended deterrence against North Korea remains.

If ROK saw nuclear propelled submarines as a way of destroying NK or Chinese SSBNs ROK would need to spend a great amount of money over a long period.

Judging by Indian and French nuclear submarine programs nuclear propulsion may take, 10 to 15, years to develop. Also see Note 3 in a Wikipedia article.

FRENCH ASSISTANCE?

If an ROK project is for an SSBN then extra years may be required to develop a vertical launch ballistic missile system. France, with experience in 2,000 to 5,000 tonne nuclear submarines may be the most likely source of reactor and submarine hull assistance.

Also France may be able to assist ROK in upgrading the Hyunmoo ballistic missile to SLBM status. This is noting France assisted Israel in developing the Jericho series of (very obviously) nuclear tipped missiles.

ISRAELI AND GERMAN TKMS ASSISTANCE?

Another option is for Israel to assist ROK by developing the solid-fuel rocket propelled, supersonic or hypersonic, Popeye Turbo "cruise" missile for ROK's horizontal torpedo tube submarine use?

Germany's TKMS, designed the Type 209s and 214 conventional subs that ROK has been assembling. TKMS may then be a likely supplier of ROKs "indigenous" 3,000+ tonne KSS-III design. This design may be very similar to a stretched Dolphin 2 or future Dolphin 3 design. Dolphin submarines have the advantage of using 4 650mm torpedo tubes that are specifically designed for the above mentioned Popeye Turbo missiles.

Pete

In the 1950s Russia initially developed its November class submarines to carry one nuclear tipped giant T-15 (1550mm diameter) torpedo to destroy Western ports and naval bases. See giant torpedo tube in middle diagram above. However the standard armament of Novembers was quickly changed to eight 533mm torpedo tubes (which could still fire standard conventional warhead, or nuclear tipped (T5/T-5) torpedos (see lower diagram, above).

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The giant nuclear tipped torpedo concept known as Kanyon ("Status-6") is again possible but unlikely as a viable weapon system. Note, at a reported 1600mm diameter, the Kanyon is only very slightly larger than the old T-15/T15 1550mm concept. This time one could fit into a converted and largely obsolete Russian Oscar submarine or a modern Borei/Borey submarine. See photos, artwork and descriptions in H I Sutton's Covert Shores website here and here.

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BACKGROUND/COMMENTS

It is odd that a Russian scheme to bring back the concept of the Kanyon, large nuclear torpedo (or “drone” unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV)) has created such interest. Sheer novelty and rightwing Russian and Western propaganda may be at the heart of the matter.

- Note at a reported 1600mm the Kanyon it is only very slightly larger than the old 1950s T-15/T15 1550mm concept.

- With an expected speed up to 56 knots the Kanyon would represent the world's slowest and most easily intercepted underwater ICBM.

- So the Kanyon encapsulates discarded technology in hardware and concept in a world that know relies on hard to shoot down SLBMs and ICBMs.

- Kanyon is easily detected by seabed (and other platform) SOSUS/IUSS sonar and other sensor arrays.

- Kanyon would be easily intercepted by US/Western deepsea UUVs or "bottom-rising" mines.

The Kanyon is basically an unviable terror weapon which Putin can scare us with. The scare can then be exploited by media outlets here (Sept 8, 2015) and here (Dec 8, 2016) and the likely sources of information (CIA, DIA and USN) seeking attention and funding.

Russian nuclear tipped torpedos

In the late 1940s and 1950s Russia (Soviets) developed an oversized 1550mm diameter nuclear tipped torpedo known as the T-15 (or T15). At 1550mm the torpedo weighed 40 tonnes. It required a one-mission specialised November class submarine to carry just one. The T-15 was intended to destroy naval bases and coastal towns by underwater explosion that resulted in massive tsunamiwaves.

The international trend of miniaturisation of H-bombs allowed the warhead to shrink to a 533mm warhead size. Also the Russian Navy was unhappy with a one weapon one-mission submarine so pressed for a standard sized 533mm nuclear torpedo that any Russian submarines (SSKs, SSNs or SSBNs) could launch. The experimental 533mm torpedo was known as T-5/T5. In the late 1950s it became operational as the Type 53-58 torpedo.

From the early 1960s Russia developed an even more flexible solution in the ASB-30 533mm nuclear warhead which could replace conventional warheads on any Russian 533mm torpedo.

The SupercavitatingtorpedoVA-111 Shkvalcan be used to carry nuclearwarheads. Being rocket powered the Shkval reveals the location of the launching submarine. Hence the Shkval is known as a “revenge weapon” where destruction of the Russian submarine is imminent.

US Nuclear tipped torpedo.

Not to be outdone the US deployed the Mark 45 ASTOR nuclear tipped torpedo from the late 1950s to mid 1970s. Instead of port/coastal destruction the Mark 45 was designed for use against high-speed, deep-diving, enemy submarines. It was a medium-lightweight 480mm torpedo fitted with a W34 nuclear warhead.

ARTICLE

Kyle Mizokamiwriting for Popular Mechanics, December 8, 2016, reports :

"The Pentagon has confirmed that a new Russian nuclear delivery drone is real. The undersea drone, which carries an enormous nuclear warhead to destroy coastal cities and military bases, was tested late last month. The test was leaked by unnamed sources to The Washington Free Beacon.

Russia calls the system "Ocean Multipurpose System 'Status-6," and it is allegedly capable of traveling underwater to distances of to 6,200 miles. It can submerge to depths of 3,280 feet and travel at speeds of up to 56 knots.

The U.S. intelligence agencies estimate Status-6 will carry a multi-megaton thermonuclear bomb payload….” See WHOLE POPULAR MECHANICS ARTICLE

Pete

Two huge Oscar II class submarines, with their 24 large Granit missiles (each) may be confronting two Western carrier groups. See the tiny human figures (bottom, right) for scale. See here for larger image.

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COMMENT

Claims that Western forces are still hunting two Oscar II submarines in the small Mediterranean Sea would be incorrect. These subs would have been detected very quickly in the small sea environment. At 25 years old, the huge, 19,400 tons (submerged) are easily spotted with active sonars. Also each Oscar is propelled by two aging OK-650 naval reactors, developed in the 1970s, which are likely to be very noisy.

Oscar II submarine comparative noise lever (Courtesy FAS). FAS also reports (upper diagram here) Akula II's have about the same noise level as Improved Los Angeles class (688i). Inconclusive. Which returns Oscar II to 1970s noise, returning to their 1970s reactor noise.

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If these Oscars are confronting US and French carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea the carrier escorts, ASW destroyers, frigates, corvettes, ASW MPAs and helicopters would all have played a part in detecting and tracking the Oscars.

Once detected just one Western ASW corvette per Oscar could tail the Oscar, using the corvette's active sonars, from one end of the Med to the other.

It may be the confronting nature of the Oscars that prompted the West to publicise the activities of these Oscars. Ordinarily activities of enemy subs are kept secret.

An Oscar firing some Granit missiles. The Granits are arranged and fired diagonally. This may be required for flight dynamics. Diagonal firing also has tactical benefits for the Oscar, ie. it can keep moving (perhaps ready to fire torpedos) rather than having to stop like an SSBN firing SLBMs. (Artwork courtesy Federation of American Scientists).

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ARTICLE

Kyle Mizokamiwriting for Popular Mechanics, December 12, 2016 (quoting The Aviationist) reports:

"NATO is Hunting Russia's "Carrier Killer" Submarines'

The subs are thought to be stalking two NATO carrier battle groups operating nearby.

NATO's anti-submarine forces are currently hunting one, and possibly two, Russian submarines in the eastern Mediterranean. The submarines, Oscar-II class guided missile boats, was designed to take out aircraft carriers in wartime. Two NATO carriers are operating off the coast of Syria….USS Eisenhowerand the French Charles De Gaulle…in the eastern Med…[operating against IS in Syria]….

The Oscar's firepower lies in its 24 [very large, supersonic] P-700 Granit missiles…

SEE WHOLE POPULAR MECHANICS ARTICLE.

A Granit being unloaded from the destroyed Oscar II submarine Kursk (Photo courtesy Air Power Australia). The P-700 Granit/3M45/SS-N-19 "Shipwreck" with its 7 tonne launch weight can fly 300 nautical miles, with an end-run of Mach 2.5. Granits are also deployed on Kirov class battlecruisers (only "Peter the Great" (in English) is active) and on the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.

Miniaturisation of modern electronics and of (nuclear and conventional) warheads is permitting the gradual phase-out of the large Granit concept in favour of the only(!) 3 tonne BrahMos / P-800/Oniks/Yakhont/SS-N-26 "Strobile".

Pete

Haifa, Israel's submarine base. Where it all begins.

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Hi Donors

I've just emailed December's Special Report to Donors, ISRAEL’S SECOND STRIKE CHOICES, out to you as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

For other readers wishing to receive ISRAEL’S SECOND STRIKE CHOICES please donate A$50 using the Donate Button on the righthand Submarine Matters sidebar. Once I have received your Donation I will email this Report to you. Over the next 11 months I will then send you a Special DONOR Report on the second Wednesday of each month.

Regards

Peter Coates
Director
Submarine Matters International

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne (left) and Defence Minister, Marise Payne uneasily sharing the defence portfolio. Even their names Pyne-Payne are uneasily similar.

(Photo courtesy The Australian).

PREDICTION

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne who uneasily shares the defence portfolio with the actual Defence Minister, Marise Payne, will oust her by late February 2017.

Late December to early February is the most frequent period for Australian ministerial changes/shakeups.

REASONS

Christopher Pyne is an outspoken threat to an increasingly desperate Prime Minister Turnbull. Turnbull is barely clinging to office with a slim majority.

The very quiet Marise Payne has missed opportunities, that the defence portfolio offers, for essential political grandstanding.

Marise Payne, emerging from obscurity in September 2015, was very much the appointment of Turnbull - when Turnbull's stocks were high. So as Turnbull's stocks decline (weakened by the 2016 Federal Election) Marise Payne's legitimacy declines.

Christopher Pyne is ambitious and very senior to Marise Payne in time served as a Minister and Cabinet Minister.

Christopher Pyne has been frustrated, since becoming Defence Industry Minister (since 19 July 2016) about having to frequently share decisions and functions with Marise Payne.

Marise Payne has largely completed her best role, policy review (2016 White Paper, accampanying documents) and oversaw policy presentation for the selection of the DCNS submarine (Shortfin).

Turnbull's thinking may be Marise Payne has already overseen substantial planning concerning the Offshore Patrol Vessel and Future Frigate selection processes. Further selection and implementation work could be done under just one Minister.

Marise Payne (a Senator from NSW) has insufficiently performed large parts of a defence minister's role, for example international defence policy sound bites (why hasn't she criticised China over the South China Sea?).

Marise can be moved, with honour, sideways, into another ministerial job that is heavy on policy review (health, education, welfare?). This also maintains the numbers of NSW politicians in the overall Turnbull Ministry.

Marise Payne's health may putting pressue on her position.

MEDIA ARTICLE

DENNIS SHANAHANof The Australian in part reported 29 November 2016 – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/marise-payne-surgery-adds-to-reshuffle-rumours/news-story/479572c92b609e40d7ab27d5dcb28834:

“Defence Minister Marise Payne’s illness and surgery have increased speculation in Coalition ranks that there will be a ministerial reshuffle [six senior portfolios] just before Christmas or in the first quarter of next year...Yesterday Senator Payne issued a statement about her absence for the past 10 days, revealing the surgery as questions about her future intensified. She said she expected a “full recovery” but did not say when she would return to work...

Senator Payne’s illness — an abdominal infection requiring surgery last weekend...suggesting Senator Payne may have to be relieved of her job...But yesterday she released a statement that said she would not attend the Senate again this week and “underwent surgery over the weekend to address a severe abdominal infection for which she had been previously receiving treatment.

Senator Payne will have missed the final two weeks of the Parliamentary sitting year.

Some Liberal MPs have been critical of her performance as Defence Minister since the Prime Minister appointed her as the first woman to the post when he took over from Mr Abbott last year.

Senator Payne’s Defence portfolio was split and responsibility for the massive defence projects over the next decades given to Christopher Pyne as Minister for Defence Industry, a move seen as a weakening of her position."

The "unclassified" LBS-Glider System that China stole. Note that in the Glider's description is the classified "Optimize ocean feature characterization for tactical and operational products for ASW, [mine warfare] MIW, [anti-mine-warfare] AMW, and Special Ops." (Slide courtesy US Navy).

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The US Defense Department said the Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) stolen by the Chinese Navy on 15 December 2016 is part of an "unclassified" Littoral Battlespace Sensing-Glider (LBS-G) system. "Unclassified" is not strictly correct. Teledyne Webb along with the USN Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command developed the LBS-G.

In the 15 December case the Glider was apparently collecting oceanographic data (such as sea water salinity, water temperature, depth, other seafloor characteristics, sound speed and other factors) to assist the USN in ASW, [mine warfare] MIW, [anti-mine-warfare] AMW, and Special Ops. Put another way the Glider assists USN sensor platforms and databases to track foreign submarines (including Chinese) or mines and aids the discrete movement of US submarines to evade detection.

On 20 December 2016 (US time) is was reported that China has returned the Glider in question.

A glider used for monitoring salinity and ocean temperatures including propagation of heat.

- 3min, 45secs - instead of a propeller a buoyancy pump glides this UUV over extreme ranges.

Gliders are too slow to shadow SSKs but larger propeller driven UUVs can.

- 4min, 25secs into the youtube a trans-Atlantic crossing shows how far gliders can travel.

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The Gliders can be used to study undersea internal wave behaviour which can then make it easier for US and allied submarines to hide under different undersea water temperature layers - called thermoclines.

The LBS-G is a long endurance UUV propelled by changes in buoyancy along with its wings and tail-fin steering. The 60 kg LBS-Gs can operate submerged up to 5 months using Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs). LBS-Gs are deployed by USN and USNS ships (like United States Naval Ship (USNS) Bowditch) around the world.

Location of Littoral Battlespace Sensing-Glider (LBS-G) UUV theft.

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CHINA'S AIMS

China's technical aim is to develop its own UUVs and sees theft of Western UUVs, followed by reverse engineering, as a way to lower research costs and shorten development times. So China would have pulled apart the Glider and conducted testing of the computer software and hardware as well as on the electrical contents.

China has also used the theft for the political aim of widening the wedge between the Philippines and the US. With Philippines President Duterte now siding with China (or its money) the theft might also be used as an excuse for the Philippines to direct a diplomatic protest at the innocent USA. This is because some Filipino politicians have chosen to view US testing of the Glider as a violation of the Philippines 200 mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

China has also decided to use the theft (50 nautical miles northwest of Subic Bay, Philippines) as an example of the US violating Chinese seaspace, even though the theft occurred outside China’s imaginary Nine-Dash-Line.

Pete

What some considered a possible, future Chinese conventional submarine (SSK) in 2013 - when few knew the above was a Soryu cutaway. Most text above is in Chinese. Possible specifications: 3,400 t (submerged), Length: 80 m, Beam: 10 m, Tubes: 6 x 533mm torpedo tubes, 21 heavyweight shots...AIP...Depth: 450 m, Duration: 60 days, Crew: 50. (Cutaway Image likely originated from a model builder or gamer network)

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Research for my future (end 2017) book on Chinese submarines, so far indicates:

China has 15 Yuan class submarines that are active, with 4 or 5 to be built in 2017-2018.

A. By 2017-2019 China will wish to launch a more advanced class of submarines to maintain its
SSK numbers while replacing obsolete Ming class.

B. Advanced class 2019 Chinese SSKs (lets call it SSK2019) may well have a higher surfaced
displacement and larger dimensions for greater capability. This would follow the
worldwide trend of steadily larger SSKs in each succeeding class.

Features deficient in the Yuan, tending to alter or make the weight of SSK2019 heavier, may include:

1. old fashioned Lead-acid Batteries (desire to deploy Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) by 2025).
AIP with its at least 200 tonnes weight might be deleted by 2025 if LIBs are successfully
introduced.

2. crew of only 38 are too few for long endurance or distant missions. More space for SEALs (for
Taiwan and Philippines operations) needed.

3. longer ranges needed. More diesel for extended voyages to protect approaches to China's South
China Sea, and for missions in Indian, Arctic and Western-Central Pacific Oceans.

4. only 6 torpedo tubes with probably only 18 heavyweight shots. Maybe more torpedo tubes or a
Vertical Multi-Purpose Lock needed for quicker-easier deployment of UUVs, torpedos, missiles
and mines.

5. improved combat system with better sonars (adds weight for electronics and more operators).

6. upgrade from MTU 386 diesels to more efficient, more powerful MTU 4000 diesels (built in
Yulin, China).

Would you agree a Chinese weight gain is likely or might LIBs-in with AIP-out make weight the same or less than a Yuan?

Pete

Christmas in Australia is in mid-summer. its really really hot. time for the beach and surfing.

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sometimes i miss the cold, snowy, christmases i had as a kid, bundled up, in west germany (in 1966-1967).

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A famous French song. santa’s biggest present in 2016 went to dcns!

Only a return of Tony Abbott to the Prime Ministership in 2017 would return Australia to the Soryu.

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Nothing like Canadian Diana Krall's sexy rendition of a good old carol!

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Have A Warm Merry Christmas And Happy New Year

Pete

1. Next year (tomorrow, 1 January 2017) Submarine Matters will introduce much more content and
comment concerning China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) submarine service.

Much more needs to be written. Chinese censorship, major language differences and some Chinese, US and Taiwanese political exaggeration make Chinese submarines a particularly difficult information target.

2017 will be an interesting year in which new President Trump may attempt to roll back China's advances in:

- the "South Sea" (China's term)
- failing that the Western world already favour China by mislabelling "South China Sea"
- "East Sea" (Vietnam's term) and
- West Philippine Sea.

I suggest everyone call it the East Sea. What do you think?

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2. Youtube

This Youtube is the Anthem of the Chinese Nuclear Submarine Service. The lyrics need work, so I've further translated them into more memorable English:

We are the shield of peace, guarding our Nation.

We are in every part of the ocean.
Ever loyal to the Motherland.

We are a vessel of iron and steel.
Launching Thunder from the deep!

Let the enemy be completely destroyed, by storm and fire!

Chinese Navy nuclear submarine.
We serve in the deep sea.

With our sacrifice, written in blood.
Our certain deaths will be remembered!

3. Video action in above Youtube.

- 0 to 40 seconds in - two of the active but totally obsolete Type 091 Han class SSNs

(Numbers 404 and 405) feature. These are noisy, dangerously radioactive to their
long-suffering crews, but not bad for a first attempt at building a class of SSN.

- 45 seconds in - what appears to be the test of a Chinese JL-1 SLBM. Launched from a

submerged test stand or a Type 092 or Type 094 SSBN.

- 1 min 7 secs in - on the surface is the only Type 092 SSBN. It has a much longer fin/sail

than the 094s.

- 2:25 simulated warhead from an SLBM destroys a city (don't labour the point chaps!)

- 3:37 This SSBN's number (406) indicates it is the Type 092.

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4. I think Auld Lang Syne is over-used and over-rated :) I reckon this is a better Happy New Year
song from ABBA - introduced by blonde Agnetha Fältskog:

Happy New Year to you all.

Pete

This is the first instalment of a week long series on the Chinese carrier Liaoning, its escorts and submarines.

Submarines belonging to China, the US, Japan and possibly South Korea and Taiwan may all have played roles in surveilling or counter-surveilling (and protecting) the Liaoning carrier group’s late December 2016 exercise in the Western Pacific. The submarines worked in cooperation with many other sensor platforms. [see the second instalment of this week's series Liaoning carrier group 2 (tomorrow)].

The HQ of each of the China's fleets are indicated, along with ship and submarine numbers in each fleet. (Map courtesy US DoD, Annual Report to Congress - Chinese Military Power 2016 (PDF about 10MB) on page 29)

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China's test carrier Liaoning comes from China's North Sea Fleet. The carrier group escorts come from all three of China's Fleets (North, East and South Sea). The multi-fleet nature reinforces that the late December 2016 activity, beyond the Japan-Taiwan-Luzon portion of the First Island Chain, was very much an initial exercise rather than an operation.

For this activity the Liaoning carrier group:

- probably set out on 23 December 2016 from its North Sea Fleet HQ base at Qingdao (Liaoning’s

regular Naval Base)

- passed through the Miyako Strait (between Okinawa and Miyako-jima (“jima” is Japanese for

“island”) on 25 December

The broken line - at least from Kyushu, Japn to Luzon, Philippines marks a portion of the First Island Chain and perhaps also a past or current undersea sensors array - perhaps used by China's opponents to hem in China's Navy (PLA-N). (Map from page 54, The Tools of Owatatsumi Japan’s Ocean Surveillance and Coastal Defence Capabilities (PDF about 10MB) (2015, ANU Press)).

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- the group then sailed east of Taiwan – then returned to the First Island Chain line by turning west

through the Bashi Channel (Luzon Strait) to the north of the Philippines

- then continued west to port facilities at Sanya/Yulin Naval Base, at China's Hainan Island by 28th

December.

Efficiently putting all the elements of carrier group operations together may take China years. This is particularly in the "enemy congested" waters of the East China and South China Seas. Within the First Island Chain there so many enemy missiles, bombs or torpedos are close at hand to threaten or sink Liaoning. Liaoning, in the medium to long term, might need to be based outside the First Island Chain to be reasonably secure.

Tomorrow the second instalment of this week's series - Liaoning carrier group.

Pete

If China's progress in the South China Sea and with the Philippines is not enough Russia is also getting closer to the Philippines. This is partly marked by a major Russian ship visit to the Philippines currently occuring.

The Straits Times, 3 January 2017 reports that Admiral Tributs, a Udaloy class ASW destroyer from Russia's Pacific Fleet, is visiting Manila Harbour for 5 days.

Admiral Tributs, Russian DDG No. 564. Admiral Tribut's obsolete nature is exemplified by its coffin launchers and its reliance on two large calibre cannon (not the modern one cannon) at the bow. Generally, the more large calibre cannon a ship has the older its design. America's mistake, USS Zumwalt, with two misconceived cannon at the bow, is an exception.

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The visit comes during Philippine President Duterte's change of foreign and defence policy away from the US and towards China and (to some extent) Russia (on a commercial and strategic level).

In September 2016 Admiral Tributs participated in a Russian-Chinese naval exercise ("Joint Sea 2016") in the South China Sea.

"The Russians have offered to sell a submarine, [UAV] drones and sniper rifles to the Philippines, according to Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana."

Pete

Report SENT to Donors "Actors & Some Influences on Trump’s Naval Policies"

Japan Developing Nuclear Weapon Capability due to Trump Uncertainty

Russian Kilo subs and seabed sensors involved in 2 NATO submarines' detection

Connection to all the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details

Japan will need to follow Australia's military example regarding the US

"Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

Key points:

Two Donor Reports, 1. Kuznetsov, 2. Nuclear South Korea, Next Week

Chinese Intelligence's Great Job in Australia - US Military Not Happy

Russia's Kuznetsov aircraft carrier strike fighters now beached in Syria.

Intelligence Vulnerabilities of Submariner Social Media Use

South Korea's future nuclear missile response to North Korea

Russia's giant Kanyon nuclear "drone"/torpedo a discarded 1950s concept

Granit armed Oscar II class submarines confronting Western Carriers

December's Special Report to Donors, ISRAEL’S SECOND STRIKE CHOICES

Payne remover Pyne will become the sole Defence Minister

China's Aims in Theft of Militarally Crucial USN Glider UUV

Needs of a future Chinese Conventional Submarine

Merry Christmas 2016. Have a Happy New Year 2017.

Happy New Year - Brought to you by PLA-N's Nuclear Submarine Service

Liaoning carrier group 1 - First Exercise Beyong the First Island Chain

The Philippines - Closer to China and now to Russia